Spring Model Discussion 18Z 9/3/13 onwards....

[mushymanrob]

who thinks these are charts good for snow?

on the face of it they might, but non of these actual charts produced a major snowfall as far as i know (there might have been localised, i cant speak for the whole country!). im central, and am prone to easterly cold due to low ground on my east. these occassions i got dull, raw, bitterly cold but dry.

THIS is why when similar charts were produced recently, heck even today on the ecm and ukmo for friday, i downplay the snow potential, not because i dont like or want snow, its because when ive had similar synoptical patterns ive never witnessed it.

[Frosty.]

sorry guys, but this chart is not one for frontal snow! it demonstrates exactly why i doubted in my earlier post the we will get much if any at all. it clearly demonstrates milder air drawn up infront of the frontal zone, pushing the much needed 528dam away.

It's only one possible outcome mushy, that fax chart is not set in stone to happen since we are entering a week where the cold block and the atlantic are going to clash and the exact way that happens is still unknown with various scenarios in the mix, it's a dynamic evolving situation, I respect your knowledge but i'm a little fed up how you are constantly shooting down anyone who thinks cold weather has the upper hand, and whatever way you slice it, the week ahead is going to be much colder than normal with snow and frost on each day in the coming week.

Edited March 17, 2013 by Frosty039

[Cloud 10]

who thinks these are charts good for snow?

on the face of it they might, but non of these actual charts produced a major snowfall as far as i know (there might have been localised, i cant speak for the whole country!). im central, and am prone to easterly cold due to low ground on my east. these occassions i got dull, raw, bitterly cold but dry.

THIS is why when similar charts were produced recently, heck even today on the ecm and ukmo for friday, i downplay the snow potential, not because i dont like or want snow, its because when ive had similar synoptical patterns ive never witnessed it.

The second chart doesn't really scream snow potential with a 1035 mb high centered just off the east coast does it?

[Summer Sun]

A bit too mild by day

Lovely temps for the south spot on for the time of year

[chris55]

Snow risk increasing as we head through next week, some excellent charts about.

If things fall just right some places could see a lot of snow with the Atlantic push,

[Bill davis]

Countryfile will be interesting! They never get the detail right though

[snowking]

Lovely temps for the south spot on for the time of year

I might agree if there was a bit of sunshine to go along with it, but when you look at this to go along with it:

I don't think anyone on here would want a setup such as that shown with a stubborn Atlantic trough

Fortunately for now its well into la la land, but if being colder is the price to pay for it being drier then i'll take it any day!

A very yukky chart for me that one - if we start seeing some HP lead warmth then you'll have my interest

SK

Edited March 17, 2013 by snowking

[mushymanrob]

It's only one possible outcome mushy, that fax chart is not set in stone to happen since we are entering a week where the cold block and the atlantic are going to clash and the exact way that happens is still unknown with various scenarios in the mix, it's a dynamic evolving situation, I respect your knowledge but i'm a little fed up how you are constantly shooting down anyone who thinks cold weather has the upper hand, and whatever way you slice it, the week ahead is going to be much colder than normal with snow and frost on each day in the coming week

i know mate, but so are all the other charts everyone talks about, even those in fi people are hanging hopes on... i posted it to support my comments.

me? shooting down others? have i that power?... no. the outlook is decidedly cold/cool ive said as much, but please dont criticise because i dont ramp the cold, ive provided the data to support my pov, if and when i believe theres a real chance of snow, ill say so (and have done). my scepticism has been proven well founded over recent weeks.

The second chart doesn't really scream snow potential with a 1035 mb high centered just off the east coast does it?

... nope, but it hasnt stopped predictions of snow from similar recent charts.

[LomondSnowstorm]

who thinks these are charts good for snow?

on the face of it they might, but non of these actual charts produced a major snowfall as far as i know (there might have been localised, i cant speak for the whole country!). im central, and am prone to easterly cold due to low ground on my east. these occassions i got dull, raw, bitterly cold but dry.

THIS is why when similar charts were produced recently, heck even today on the ecm and ukmo for friday, i downplay the snow potential, not because i dont like or want snow, its because when ive had similar synoptical patterns ive never witnessed it.

It would've been a meteorological miracle to see snow in your location from that last chart:

These however look fine:

Edited March 17, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Weather-history]

I suppose the question is will we have a white Easter? Two weeks to go. Personally I hope not!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=348&mode=0&carte=0

Edited March 17, 2013 by Weather-history

[Summer Sun]

06z London ensemble is trending on or just have the average line this morning

Manchester ensemble has slightly more scatter

Aberdeen remains the coldest but one of the driest especially over the Easter weekend (29th March to 1st April)

EDIT

BBC weather for the week ahead shows the south having temps ranging from 5c to 8c colder midlands north with snow at times, Atlantic pushing in by Friday

Edited March 17, 2013 by Gavin.

[stewfox]

who thinks these are charts good for snow?

on the face of it they might, but non of these actual charts produced a major snowfall as far as i know (there might have been localised, i cant speak for the whole country!). im central, and am prone to easterly cold due to low ground on my east. these occassions i got dull, raw, bitterly cold but dry.

THIS is why when similar charts were produced recently, heck even today on the ecm and ukmo for friday, i downplay the snow potential, not because i dont like or want snow, its because when ive had similar synoptical patterns ive never witnessed it.

Last weeks charts show potential for snow and if they dont reflect IMBY potential so what.

We have seen many times this winter charts showing marginal events with some hitting the jackpot e.g Brighton last week others not. Today I hit the jackpot.

Wide spread ice days maybe not but looking at the charts for next week something of potential interest for nearly everyone (snow wise)

Edited March 17, 2013 by stewfox

[SnowBallz]

Last weeks charts show potential for snow and if they dont reflect IMBY potential so what.

We have seen many times this winter charts showing marginal events with some hitting the jackpot e.g Brighton last week others not. Today I hit the jackpot.

Wide spread ice days maybe not but looking at the charts for next week something of potential interest for nearly everyone (snow wise)

This is the thing Stew, when people obsess over IMBY-perspective, they lose focus of the bigger picture.

Case in point: the last 10 days or so for me has been characterised by frequent snow showers - not heavy, not persistent - but frequent snow, aligned with a biting and penetrating cold wind. It hasn't - by any stretch of the imagination - felt anything Spring-like, or remotely mild.

Unfortunately, heavy commitments of late mean that I can only afford cursory glances at the models at the moment, but I do know that all of that episode was progged within the models - so for anyone to suggest that there is an issue of verification, I'm afraid they are very much mistaken, or applying too much of an IMBY viewpoint.

I've looked at the current outputs and - again, much like the last episode - some will be experiencing cold, and very un-spring-like temperatures over the next few days. Not everyone, but some will. How foolish would it be of me, for instance, to dismiss such output in a week's time should I in contrast happen to have a milder few days?

The UK's weather simply isn't determinded or judged on the local effects to a small pocket of land, on the entire British Isles. It's a lot wider than that, and any discussion which doesn't appreciate that, is - I'm afraid to say - pretty much dead in the water; in fact, (to me anyway) it comes across as pretty amateur, and I find it very easy to ignore.

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead is going with the Atlantic making an attempt to move in by Friday setting up a south easterly wind

GFS and UKMO (as to be expected) are looking fairly accurate so far pressure difference on GFS but its got the right idea

Those temps are pretty much inline with what the met office showed

Edited March 17, 2013 by Gavin.

[damianslaw]

Sticking to the reliable timeframe i.e. out to Friday next week, its a cold if not very cold outlook for the time of year, with suppressed maximum temperatures particularly in the northern half of the country where such temps are unlikely to get much above 3 degrees for the foreseeable future - very chilly for mid March.

Its a dynamic set up at present, with the longwave trough overhead and forecast to eject southeastwards with an unstable easterly airflow moving into northern parts. Snow will become a major hazard I suspect in the NE half of the country in the next 48-72 hours.

All eyes are on developments later next week with another low pressure anchoring itself to the SW of the country but with nowhere seemingly to go thanks to the exceptionally strong robust heights to the north. ECM keen to see this feature disrupt as it attempts to invade the southern half of the country pulling in a cold SE feed ahead - any precipitation would very likely be of snow to quite low levels even in the south. UKMO also showing a similiar set up. GFS less keen on quick disruption, but again doesn't show the feature making much inroads, but does pull in some milder uppers ahead meaning more marginal conditions for snow especially in the south.

Its an evolving set up, don't expect any of the models to have the position of the low and its associated fronts correct until probably Wednesday. The theme of the winter has been for such features to quickly disrupt and not make much inroads across the country which in turn would be a continuation of the very cold weather in the NE and perhaps a wintry mix in the SW.

Spring remains firmly on hold...

[Frosty.]

The latest metoffice update sounds wintry for central and northern britain for at least the next few weeks with an ongoing risk of snow and with widespread frosts and ice, the week ahead in particular looks wintry for most of the uk apart from perhaps the far southwest. There appears to be a trend for the cold to relax it's grip across southern britain with time but only to relatively less cold levels and not returning to mild. The incredible northern blocking looks like persisting well into april, it will be eroded over time as we go deeper into spring but northern britain and especially the far north could be stuck with below average temps for weeks and weeks to come. I'm not sure where the metoffice update sits with the latest operational output, perhaps more with the gfs 00z and 06z rather than the ecm 00z, but that's only my opinion.

[Polar Maritime]

The latest metoffice update sounds wintry for central and northern britain for at least the next few weeks with an ongoing risk of snow and with widespread frosts and ice, the week ahead in particular looks wintry for most of the uk apart from perhaps the far southwest. There appears to be a trend for the cold to relax it's grip across southern britain with time but only to relatively less cold levels and not returning to mild. The incredible northern blocking looks like persisting well into april, it will be eroded over time as we go deeper into spring but northern britain and especially the far north could be stuck with below average temps for weeks and weeks to come. I'm not sure where the metoffice update sits with the latest operational output, perhaps more with the gfs 00z and 06z rather than the ecm 00z, but that's only my opinion.

Yes Karl, the METO are standing firm with there update for a very wintry week next week, with some big falls expected from the Midlands Northwards, amazing really to get this sort of mid-winter weather during Spring ! not that im moaning...

[Summer Sun]

Just been looking though through CFS 9 monthly (no idea how reliable it is as I rarely view it) but this is the best I can find If you've had enough of this cold but its nothing spectacular

Even into May the Northern Blocking never shifts (not be taken literally of course at this extreme range but its remarkable how stubborn it is)

But at 1380 hours away BINGO!!

Of course non of this should be taken seriously but it could be a stubborn bleeder in the worst case, whats the latest net weather CFS anomaly temperatures showing for April? I know in the first Spring update it looked promising for a warm month and pressure was shown to be higher than normal across most of Europe

Edited March 17, 2013 by Gavin.

[Frosty.]

Yes Karl, the METO are standing firm with there update for a very wintry week next week, with some big falls expected from the Midlands Northwards, amazing really to get this sort of mid-winter weather during Spring ! not that im moaning...

Yes PM, it's a fantastic outlook for the scottish ski industry, easter looks like being a busy period up there, the indications are that the further north you go in the uk, the longer the wintry weather will persist and some parts of the north and northeast of the uk look like having major disruptive snow later in the week, and even before then, there will be sleet and snow showers as the cold air digs south, even today there is snow falling in southern england and the far north of the uk is milder than the far south but that won't last long as increasingly bitterly cold Easterly winds strengthen across scotland and northern england tomorrow.

Edited March 17, 2013 by Frosty039

[nicknacknoo]

I must say Gavin, that despite your detractors on this thread, your posts are always well informed and a constant source of information and links for us newbies.

[Frank Trough]

"Spring remains firmly on hold..."

No it doesn't. Spring is here right now. It IS spring. I'm finding this phrase a bit frustrating - presumably spring will only stop being "on hold" when the temperature reaches 20c? I think people are suffering from snowblindness or some sort of hangover from last march.

It might be remaining cold for the time of year (but increasingly it looks like milder air - albeit wet - will at least make into to the south as next week progresses) but is still spring.

There's nothing un spring like about this chart:

[Summer Sun]

A couple of helpful tweets from Matt Hugo this morning showing why northern blocking is been so stubborn

This is one for the archives. Arctic Oscillation as low as low can get! It highlights the extreme Northern Blocking.

North Atlantic Oscillation not far behind either, quite impressively low. -ve NAO + -ve AO = sig risk of cold weather

Looking at those the blocking may ease as we progress towards the second month of spring but 20c+ temperatures look a good way off yet, later this week and into next we could see the cold relax in the south once milder and wetter air attempts to push in but with the blocking in place the lows could be slow moving as they simply have no where to go at present

Edited March 17, 2013 by Gavin.

[legritter]

Just going by present modells i would say those posters in scotland and northern england will see some magical snow this week .for us more southern posters there could very well be some surprises if lady luck pays us a visit .realy important ECM and uk Met this evening ,lets all just grab this while we can .certainly not boring weather for early spring with plenty in modells to keep us glued for a while yet .if i had to call where a hot spot would be at the moment i would go for Sheffield area ,but this is the weather game so surprises will come along .

[-uksnow-]

GME slower with the advancement of cold air heading south on its 12z

0z:

12z:

Scotland and N'ern England still looking 'Good' though.

[mushymanrob]

it comes across as pretty amateur,

we are (nearly) all amateurs on here though

"Spring remains firmly on hold..."

No it doesn't. Spring is here right now. It IS spring. I'm finding this phrase a bit frustrating - presumably spring will only stop being "on hold" when the temperature reaches 20c? I think people are suffering from snowblindness or some sort of hangover from last march.

It might be remaining cold for the time of year (but increasingly it looks like milder air - albeit wet - will at least make into to the south as next week progresses) but is still spring.

There's nothing un spring like about this chart:

EXACTLY! couldnt agree more.