scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 10/03/13 09z ------>

[tiff]

I think there's a justifiable case to be made for it having been 'the wrong kind of snow'. 3cm of slush with temperatures above freezing is a very different proposition to 3cm of powder with sub zero temperatures which is blowing and drifting in the wind.

Utterly treacherous on the pavements today, managed not to slip and fall over but the ice was lethal. I haven't seen a proper freeze up like that since December 2010.

I got my first call at 6am to someone who had slipped off a roundabout near Cupar, and then passed the fatal accident on the A92. There were bumps, scrapes and "offs" everywhere. The roads were unbelieveable- and stayed like this until late morning. I covered the whole of Fife all day, from Culross to St Andrews and didn't see one gritter the entire day.

The standards of driving were terrible. I nearly got wiped out on the side of the M90 in a blizzard by a car with no lights on at all. You could see 5 feet in front of you and this numpty just appeared out of the gloom, just missing my van, which has all sort of flashing lights and reflective strips. Thanks Mate. Jumping out of the way is much easier if I can see you coming.

[Buriedundersnow]

a small post to explain why i like the NASA output and i have compared it to the ecm and done a little paint to show

now here is the NASA and ECM 120h charts inside the painted bit is the bit of interest in the NASA the low pressure to our north has already started to sink and merge with the other low pressure but with the ECM the low pressure stays much further north.

on the next chart the painted arrows shows how the ECM blocks off the real cold air coming because the low away up there where the red arrow is pointing.

black arrow: is where the flow goes due to that low pressure.

pink arrow: is where the flow would go if that low had sunk and probably where the flow will come from on the NASA as it wants to sink the low pressure and gives a much cleaner evolution.

Edited March 12, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[jon_d1983]

Great post BUS!! lets hope that low goes south then!!

Edited March 12, 2013 by jon_d1983

[Buriedundersnow]

Great post BUS!! lets hope that low goes south then!!

the only other model that goes the same sort of route as the NASA is the UKMO.

ECM/GFS/GEM all want to go with that little low away up north.

we will just have to wait to see who is right.

[Buriedundersnow]

i'm really liking this cold spring and not just for the snow hopefully this will be the cold spring we have been needing to get rid of all these f**king spiders and that aswell

[Hairy Celt]

i'm really liking this cold spring and not just for the snow hopefully this will be the cold spring we have been needing to get rid of all these f**king spiders and that aswell

Wot?

Sleety showers on and off this afternoon (like showers tend to); waiting for the -8C uppers to return - needed for snow just here, even that's marginal at this time of year. At least the ppn seems likely to fizzle around.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Wot?

Sleety showers on and off this afternoon (like showers tend to); waiting for the -8C uppers to return - needed for snow just here, even that's marginal at this time of year. At least the ppn seems likely to fizzle around.

You may actually see less marginality ironically at this time of year than normal because of the lower SSTs, since your location is so strongly affected by that. Still very dicey by day but perhaps a better shot of something more significant after dark.

[Buriedundersnow]

Wot?

Sleety showers on and off this afternoon (like showers tend to); waiting for the -8C uppers to return - needed for snow just here, even that's marginal at this time of year. At least the ppn seems likely to fizzle around.

spiders leave there nests at this time of year to go out and feed the reason we have had loads of spiders is because the last few decades we have hardly had any plrolonged cold in spring or severe frosts which it looks like we will get through this spring and it is the prolonged cold and frosts that kill spiders off cos they cant wait for it to warm up they have to go out and find food after hatching or there screwed and they are subjected to the frosts which can help kill them off

[Hairy Celt]

spiders leave there nests at this time of year to go out and feed the reason we have had loads of spiders is because the last few decades we have hardly had any plrolonged cold in spring or severe frosts which it looks like we will get through this spring and it is the prolonged cold and frosts that kill spiders off cos they cant wait for it to warm up they have to go out and find food after hatching or there screwed and they are subjected to the frosts which can help kill them off

I bring the poor creatures indoors when it's this cold out. They warm up, run around and tease the cats, waving their palps from behind sticks before sneaking back out of sight.

[DR(S)NO]

Some of the roads

Agreed. Managed to come off twice on my cycle to work - ouch! To be fair though only a complete muppet would have attempted it based on the state of the side roads!

Sorry 101... I thought you were Bungle...never realised you were Fozzy Bear

[jon_d1983]

right folks, what are we thinking for chances of snow tonight in aberdeen and slightly further north? looking at various forecasts, yr- Nout, meto - snow all night into morning and beyond and good old bbc saying showers all night too.

i woke up this morning with snow and i want more hahaah

[Ravelin]

Well there's been a fair few snow showers in Dyce this afternoon, a couple of them pretty heavy. They have been short-lived though and the remaining snow cover that existed this morning has been disappearing due to the warmer temperatures today. We've still got a warning out for overnight, and forecasts of continuing showers, so maybe the process will be reversed once it begins to get dark.

[101_North]

The sun is slowly working it's magic on exposed bits of the Pentlands.

Edited March 12, 2013 by 101_North

[Buriedundersnow]

I bring the poor creatures indoors when it's this cold out. They warm up, run around and tease the cats, waving their palps from behind sticks before sneaking back out of sight.

ah hate spiders especially the ones we get round here there bout the size of my hand

[Northernlights]

No broadband today till just now.Most of snow has gone but 2.9c just now feels very cold in the fresh NNE wind.Ground is still frozen to a few inches with a sticky muddy surface as the thawed snow cannot drain away.

Maybe its just me but I still feel our local climate is cooling in general.Will need two warm weeks to see daffs flowering in early April as they are mostly just an inch or so out of the ground. All the talk of it being too late for low level snow is incorrect up here. Just have to remember the 3rd of April last year A few photos from 3/4/2012.

Edited March 12, 2013 by Northernlights

[jon_d1983]

imagine that was real :-0 being an optimist im off to start stocking up on tinned foods and preserves

[Hairy Celt]

imagine that was real :-0 being an optimist im off to start stocking up on tinned foods and preserves

Don't forget the amber nectar. Winter's not done with us yet.

[jon_d1983]

Don't forget the amber nectar. Winter's not done with us yet.

thats obigatory....although im currently on a dry spell no booze since xmas! but if snowed in id make an exception HC

[chemikal]

I can share your pain. I cycle to work all year and came off yesterday as when I came round a corner a car decided to do a u-turn and he was facing me. In normal conditions this wouldn't have been a problem but instinct kicked in and I was too heavy on the front brake. The front folded and down I went. It was low speed so the only damage was to pride as the first thing I thought of was did anyone see me (apart form the driver who apologised) and try and get back on my bike as if nothing happened.

Some of the roads

Agreed. Managed to come off twice on my cycle to work - ouch! To be fair though only a complete muppet would have attempted it based on the state of the side roads!

[Blizzardo]

The weekend is looking borderline for some prolonged snow for some.

Using the GFS 12z to illustrate. You can see that an area of low pressure and associated band of precipitation moves in on Saturday afternoon from the North West and it then almost grinds to a halt over the UK.

There is a fair amount of heavy precipitation wrapped around it.

It moves a little North East over the next 12 hours but precipitation still falling over pretty much the same area. The question then is rain or snow?

The afternoon temperature is quite low, especially the futher west you go and the thickness values are 528dam or below.

Its a marginal set up but definately one to watch over the nexy couple of days.

Edited March 12, 2013 by Blizzardo

[Buriedundersnow]

looks like the models are at odds again the UKMO has taken a step in the wrong direction this afternoon and it looks like the ECM is taking a step in the right direction so maybe we are going to get some kind of middle ground.

i would say we are still on the fence at 50/50 for another bout of snowy weather like we have just had the next run or two on all the models will be crucial to see where we are heading.

i wont be in tonight playing pool in the falkirk district league so u will all get peace from all my posts tonight till prob after 11 lol.

[ploughboy]

Beeb website forecasting several cm of snow for eastern Scotland in the next 24hrs. Radio 2 predicting snow for northern Scotland.

Quiet on here - snow fatigue kicking in? :-)

[Guest]

Beeb website forecasting several cm of snow for eastern Scotland in the next 24hrs. Radio 2 predicting snow for northern Scotland.

Quiet on here - snow fatigue kicking in? :-)

Just resting for the next batch

Radar on standby

[lorenzo]

Another cold looking run from the ECM this evening the 144 chart caught the eye.. Atlantic dead as a dodo and slammed shut, all over bar the shouting of where the final placement of that low pressure will be. Looked like a colder op run so will be interesting to see where it lives in the pack of ensembles. Intriguing synoptics for March, it is almost as if all the anomalous Northern Blocking has decided to appear at once, some beastly HP systems flagging up over Greenland and also Russia / Siberia.

The Northerly NNW component to the flow evident on Satellite watching the animation pull down the cold air flow, already cloud build up.

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

NMM heading towards midnight looking like this, showers pepping up in the flow visible from satellite loop above.

Thickness shown here and lower values heading in from the NE, the colder upper temps alongside elongating along the eastern coast, hence the possible warning going out.

Loved the snow yesterday, certainly made up for some of those near misses over Winter proper. Let's hope some areas deprived of some good showers get some covering tonight. Over to you radar !

Edited March 12, 2013 by lorenzo

[Guest]

Gorgeous charts on the eight to ten day GFS & ECM means. Blocking over Greenland, Arctic and north of Norway. Trough over the UK. Fingers crossed there's enough cold air drawn in on the surface.