Uk General Convective Discussion & Forecasts, 13th March 2013 onwards

[MP-R]

May has been the most thundery month of the year in the 2000s in my location. Next week looks like it may throw up something of interest. Southeasterly winds and a shallow trough to the southwest would be ideal - pull in the warmth from deeper into the Med as there is no warmth here in Spain at the moment haha.

[AWD]

I look to Sunday Monday & Tuesday next week for something.

Unlikely to be anything over the bank holiday weekend as that looks likely to be high pressure dominated with the trough to the SW too far SW for any instability to affect us.

[Karl83]

Unlikely to be anything over the bank holiday weekend as that looks likely to be high pressure dominated with the trough to the SW too far SW for any instability to affect us.

I am a balloon and you just popped me.

[Coast]

Unlikely to be anything over the bank holiday weekend as that looks likely to be high pressure dominated with the trough to the SW too far SW for any instability to affect us.

 

 

A very quite period coming up (well the next 7 days) with little sign of anything convective in the shorter term anywhere in the UK.

 

GFS Free-atmosphere for London is typical:

 

Edited May 1, 2013 by Coast

[MP-R]

Boring boring in the UK but there's quite the line of thunderstorms in eastern Europe stretching all the way from Kosovo up into Russia.

http://www.sat24.com/

[Coast]

The closest anything looks even remotely likely is in NE France next week and that's only isolated and a long way away!

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Some good cb's towering up around me at the minute here in peterborough

[Convective]

Nothing too big on the scene at the moment although some isolated thunder-showers can be expected on Monday in east Anglia and northern Ireland by the looks of things. Also Wednesday shows widespread thunder-showers possible through many northern areas! Not a lot to look forward to but if there's going to be anything any time soon, it looks like they will be the days!

[Supacell]

Very surprised to hear of thunderstorms today considering the conditions. However, it did happen and just goes to show that anything can happen with the weather.

 

Could there be more surprises over the next couple of days as warmer air moves up from the near continent i wonder?

[Coast]

Could there be more surprises over the next couple of days as warmer air moves up from the near continent i wonder?

 

Not one I had my eye on yesterday!

 

General overview from GFS (Free atmosphere) has things just bubbling under in Scotland:

 

 

Maybe some very small chance in the North of the UK on Wednesday into Thursday?

 

 

Possibly in the South as well?

 

 

Only real lead at the moment is for Ireland (isolated) on Monday:

 

 

Otherwise just looks like a cloudy and at times, wet week!

[Bluebreezer54]

Despite rather poor conditions today a full-blown thunderstorm has developed over parts of Hertfordshire recently, with thundery showers over the E Midlands.

I was about 5-10 miles to the south of that and it sounded pretty impressive from my where I am. About a dozen or so long booming rumbles of thunder from an ominous looking sky. Any other day I would have gone chasing but I already had other arrangements.

[Sprites]

Wasn't expecting to get a thunderstorm yesterday, four or five rumbles here, a bright c-g seen from the garden , an awesome 2 thunder days now this year!

[dave48]

UKMO modelling a few showers over East Anglia tomorrow, a few models hinting at low end cape, could lead to a few rumbles of thunder. Met office suggesting the showers will generally be light though.

[staplehurst]

Wasn't expecting to get a thunderstorm yesterday, four or five rumbles here, a bright c-g seen from the garden , an awesome 2 thunder days now this year!

 

Agreed, immediate look at the surface wouldn't reveal anything too exciting (rather weak CAPE for example). However yesterday just goes to show how important it is to look at upper level features also, with a rather nice upper/mid-level low/trough associated with a lobe of PVA migrating eastwards across the areas that witnessed thunderstorms.

 

Admittedly previous runs didn't resolve such upper level feature as well as those runs much nearer the time frame.

Edited May 5, 2013 by staplehurst

[Supacell]

May be worth mentioning that UKASF and ukww both mentioning a low risk of a thunderstorm in East Anglia tomorrow, with a slightly higher risk for E Scotland and N Ireland. They both stress how low the risk is for East Anglia, but it could be one of those occasions where you could be caught out if not expecting anything.

 

I will have a look at the charts on offer tomorrow.

[The watcher]

Thought there was a risk today for here, seems quite muggy and some short, big drops of rain around among overcast skies this morning. Without the sun being out her though, hard to tell.

[Supacell]

Following on from my post last night there is still a very small risk of a thunderstorm today - but it is very small across England and Scotland. The GFS SBCAPE charts show a very small build up of CAPE across the northern Home Counties, SE Midlands and East Anglia but precipitation is very isolated and not particularly heavy. Perhaps a little more CAPE and precipitation across East Scotland

 

  

 

The Met Office charts show showers breaking out briefly across EA this afternoon, although nothing overly heavy - showers also over the far NE of Scotland.

 

The NMM charts show the risk including areas further SE with a perhaps more pronounced risk area from East London SE towards north Kent during the mid to late afternoon (on this run). 

 

     

 

The highest risk today is across N. Ireland where the NMM hi res charts show an area of precipitation developing this afternoon and evening across the west of N.Ireland under up to 600J/kg of CAPE. GFS and Met Office also shows some heavy returns.

 

 

In summary I would be surprised to see a storm today across England or Scotland, but across N.Ireland I think a few storms could be expected later on in the day - more likely in the west. A great day for most of us away from the NW of Scotland and Ireland for getting out and enjoying the sunshine and warmth, not really one for chasing storms

 

Tomorrow looks like a higher risk on the GFS and NMM with an area of showers (maybe storms) developing across Northern England in the morning and then isolated thunderstorms breaking out in a line from the SE across London and into the SE Midlands transferring northwards across the Midlands during the evening. One to watch maybe!

 

Edited May 6, 2013 by Supacell

[Coast]

GFS playing around with things on the latest run and has thrown up this for tomorrow:

 

[NUT]

John Hammond keeps mentioning the slight risk for tomorrow. Possibly one to watch? (Maybe the pennines southwards)

[weatherobsuk]

So much for my plans camping in a forest (private residence) overnight in the Peaks.

[Stuart]

Synopsis:

New Atlantic low approaches the British Isles during Tuesday, although main frontal systems will remain to the southwest until the end of the day. South/southeasterly flow ahead of this frontal system will continue to advect warmer air across Britain.

 

Discussion:

... NW ENGLAND, S/SW SCOTLAND ...

Diurnal heating accompanied by slight troughing aloft will generate some 400-500J/kg CAPE. This coupled with wind convergence will generate a few scattered showers primarily to the west of high ground, which will tend to migrate/train NNW'wards through the afternoon and evening. Reasonably dry air aloft and SFC-500mb dT of ~40C could produce some local lightning activity. Weak shear means convection will be poorly-organised, but showers training over the same areas may cause some localised flooding.
 

... EAST ANGLIA, MIDLANDS ...

It is possible that such instability may extend further southwards towards these areas by the end of the afternoon/early evening, with perhaps an isolated sharp shower developing. However, confidence is too low in this to extend the SLGT area further south as things currently stand.
After this forecast period there is the potential for some offshore lightning close to Norfolk/Suffolk as thunderstorms over the Low Countries drift offshore and become elevated through the overnight hours.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/242

 

 

[Coast]

Damn I'm missing ESTOFEX and the Lightning Wizard charts! Ho-hum, lots of other sources, I need to get some work done and try and find out how we stand convectively for today!!

Edited May 7, 2013 by Coast

[Polar Maritime]

Damn I'm missing ESTOFEX and the Lightning Wizard charts! Ho-hum, lots of other sources, I need to get some work done and try and find out how we stand convectively for today!!

 

Try this Coast..http://www.rasp.stratus.org.uk/app/welcome.php

[Coast]

Try this Coast..http://www.rasp.stratus.org.uk/app/welcome.php

 

I've had the RASP charts bookmarked for a while and often have a sneaky peek, I guess it's what you get used to.

[Coast]

A smidgen of CAPE lurking around the Scottish borders and slightly less in the home counties later today:

 

 

Lifted index looks OK for some small potential the further North you are.

 

Lightning Wizard is back!

 

 

Shear and convergence clearly outlined in that NE England/Central Scotland area, where the rain seems to be today too:

 

 

Plenty of surface CAPE centring somewhere around Cumbria:

 

 

With a small area of MCS propagation also in that patch:

 

 

GFS simple overview says it's not enough to spark off a thunderstorm today:

 

 

Plenty of rain though in that area though: