Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[UV-RAY]

I think double figures in any sunshine would certainly feel pleasant, seems like a long time since I have seen 12c or 13c

There's life from the N. Midlands onwards you know, all this winter I've had to listen to a southern bias in here on how wonderful Synoptics were in their BY. Tough luck if it rains from the Midlands Southwards.

Cracking ECM this morning if its cold and snow your looking for ( from the Midlands Northwards ), the week could see some extremely low temp for the time of year, ice days look a possibility for those in the NE. Any sign of mild is way out in la la land, for now!

PS; Apologies for the grumpiness, I generally don't post first thing in the morning.

Edited March 19, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[That ECM]

An incredible ECM for the second half of March, will we see the GFS and the UKMO begin to correct the advance of the Atlantic back South ? Something will need to give soon as this is just a few days away.

Absolutely, the difference is remarkable. A half way house between them would give snow for many. Frustrating, as I am due to be going to woodhall spa on Friday and a bit of clarity would be usefull. The meto have moved the temps up for this area on fri so I wonder if they are siding more with UKMO and GFS. All depends on how well the block holds I guess because the outcome is very different if it does or does not.

[Guest pjl20101]

Think we need GP on board to analyse in depth with what's going on currently as that will hopefully give a detailed explanation with what's going on currently. I know at the moment that angular momentum is in an el Nino pattern at the moment and that with the contradicting temp in the pacific currently is causing a headache for forecasters. Also noticed the MJO has contributed perhaps to our unseasonably cold conditions too. Think the GFS 00Z is more accurate this morning to with what the 18Z was last night. The ECM I think may be going a bit OTT as it may not be as severe as what they are implying. It really is a very complicated pattern indeed.

[mushymanrob]

... and the charts swing back again this morning towards and to some degree (but not the extreminty) last nights 12z ecm predicted.

so now the data suggests the ecm 12z yesterday was on to something... but what that run did was over ramp the severity of the cold, and still continues to do so. this mornings goes way off track to a ridiculous level with no plausible evolution. (think theres a tech prob as charts arnt loading right).

the gfs has dallied with the 'two attempts' scenario before, suggesting that this fridays action will not be spring being sprung.... but that wasnt likely (and i have posted that i expect the cold to keep returning as long as that northern block is in place, this might be going on until may, if not longer, a coold spring is on offer im affraid).

i think the gfs 00z is on the mark, plausible evolution, sensible temp profiles (cold but not ridiculously cold), plus the fax supports the gfs @t120. so we should see a milder incursion on friday - sunday with any wintriness reserved for high ground, esp in the north (so no frontal snow for low lying uk mainland)

wet windy less cold, then the trough slips southeastward allowing easterly scourced winds again. my monies on them being cold, raw, overcast, especially considering the time of year. i have no snow concerns after tomorrow, i work outside so i have to take note of conditions.

compare the three charts for saturday... fax, gfs agree, ecm poses a less progressive chart which means that its subsequent charts are less likely to be accurate.

[SP1986]

If the ECM turns out correct, as I suggested not last, night then this would be the coldest March mean minima in my life time here by a long way. Even the GFS and UKMO show a reversion back towards a prolonged cold scenario now. Is it feasible spring might be cut significantly short this year or maybe not occur at all? Might seem in the realms of fantasy but given how clear it is that northern blocking will be around for an age yet, it's not so far fetched

Edited March 19, 2013 by SP1986

[Ian Brown]

That's a good summary of the charts Rob, however the METO forecasts updated in the early hours don't support the GFS/UKMO or that fax chart from last night. They mention 'persistent snow' as a possibility for Wales and the Midlands Northwards.

So there must be some doubt about how far North the frontal advance will be, hopefully Ian F will be around to provide some clarity.

[shaky]

Ecm shows snow once again midlands northwards and probably stays as snow before dropping south again!!ukmo shows snow only for the north!!and gfs is just crap!!

[mushymanrob]

There's life from the N. Midlands onwards you know, all this winter I've had to listen to a southern bias in here on how wonderful Synoptics were in their BY. Tough luck if it rains from the Midlands Southwards.

Cracking ECM this morning if its cold and snow your looking for ( from the Midlands Northwards ), the week could see some extremely low temp for the time of year, ice days look a possibility for those in the NE. Any sign of mild is way out in la la land, for now!

PS; Apologies for the grumpiness, I generally don't post first thing in the morning.

no it isnt, all three show mild for friday-sunday, less in the north, more in the south...mild is average, mild isnt 18c!

[mushymanrob]

That's a good summary of the charts Rob, however the METO forecasts updated in the early hours don't support the GFS/UKMO or that fax chart from last night. They mention 'persistent snow' as a possibility for Wales and the Midlands Northwards.

So there must be some doubt about how far North the frontal advance will be, hopefully Ian F will be around to provide some clarity.

thanks.

the meto though always err on the side of caution, theyd sooner predict doom that doesnt happen then nothing that ends up worse.

work calls

[Staffordshire]

Things just seem to be getting pushed further and further back and never actually seem to get here with this 'cold spell' anyone else agree? now we are looking at the 24th march. always seems to be 96-120h+

also i dont think the term will the gfs 'come onboard' is the right.things to say becauae that is suggesting it is wrong?

Anyway ecm does seem to be consistant

[Gustywind]

There's life from the N. Midlands onwards you know, all this winter I've had to listen to a southern bias in here on how wonderful Synoptics were in their BY. Tough luck if it rains from the Midlands Southwards.

Cracking ECM this morning if its cold and snow your looking for ( from the Midlands Northwards ), the week could see some extremely low temp for the time of year, ice days look a possibility for those in the NE. Any sign of mild is way out in la la land, for now!

PS; Apologies for the grumpiness, I generally don't post first thing in the morning.

So it's snow for midlands northwards and rain for midlands southwards, now I'm really confused! Please can posters be a bit less vague if they quote locations and expected weather? The midlands is a substantial area north to south from Buxton all the way down to Gloucestershire. As a midlands inhabitant vague posts like the one above are quite confusing.

Edited March 19, 2013 by Gustywind

[Kentspur]

If it were December to early March I'd be on the snow bandwagon- we've missed several chances had 1decent snowfall in mid January. I'll take that and move on a season it is time for some warmth-something which my area usually does best with recording the highest temperatures- goodluck to the northerners- but for me it's roll on the hot summer days where I can actually go fishing again without catching pneumonia lol

[Weather-history]

Regardless what happens whether it rains or snows, it has to be said, that the system coming in at the weekend looks increasingly likely not to deliver the knock out blow to the cold spell.

[phil nw.]

A fascinating battle between the cold over the north and the milder air trying to move north over the UK taking place over the next few days,

It does still look like Midlands south will warm up somewhat towards the weekend as the frontal troughs push in.

The latest T84 fax along side the ECM and GFS show this outlook.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

Still plenty of Wintery weather around over Scotland and the far NE of England for a while though.

The ECM in particular shows a push back south of the colder air early next week but this relies on good undercutting and elongation of the upper trough into the continent.GFS shows a different outlook as it starts to bring the jet north again with pressure rising from the south.

Whatever evolves there`s no sign of any notable warmth as yet though.

[Hagler]

but it IS happening! this does my head in! go outside, the crocus are out in flower, the daffs coming on, the birdsong is there they are singing their spring songs! just because its colder then average doesnt mean spring isnt happening unless youre in eastern scotland which is getting a pasting.

Ive just been outside, there is not a bird to be seen and I cant see any crocus, daffs etc for lying snow.

The models are maybe showing a warm up for southern Britain but just just to make you aware there is life up norf.

[TEITS]

That's a good summary of the charts Rob, however the METO forecasts updated in the early hours don't support the GFS/UKMO or that fax chart from last night. They mention 'persistent snow' as a possibility for Wales and the Midlands Northwards.

So there must be some doubt about how far North the frontal advance will be, hopefully Ian F will be around to provide some clarity.

Must admit Ian I was amazed to read the Met O forecast this morning for my region suggesting persistent snow. I have to be honest after looking at all the output today im not convinced its right and feel rain is more likely for my location and across much of the Midlands with the exception of maybe the N Midlands especially the Peak District.

As for the rest of the output and im still uncertain whether we shall see just a cold SE,ly or very cold E,ly with potential snow showers.

[John Snow]

From an IMBY perspective it is useless for me as we won't see any snow but it looks like the ECM has called it right on this occasion.

The UK will probably end up with a watered down slightly version of the 6z

I fully expect the GFS and UKMO to backtrack today and side with the ECM

[Frank Trough]

but it IS happening! this does my head in! go outside, the crocus are out in flower, the daffs coming on, the birdsong is there they are singing their spring songs! just because its colder then average doesnt mean spring isnt happening unless youre in eastern scotland which is getting a pasting.

it is frustrating. Spring is about more than just "temperature" - photoperiod is very important in determining "spring" for many species. That apsect of spring can't just "not happen at all". That said, another cold spring would be a bit of a disaster for many birds (especially some of my Thames Basin Heath species) especially if it was followed by another wet, cool summer. Last year we found nightjars just lying dead on the heath from starvation.

Anyway, as many people have said, that northern block is very stubborn. It's not going anywhere fast. This chart looks horrible IMBY - cold, gloom (that's from a personal point of view - i realise lots of people will be loving the look of the ECM this morning)

Fishing season severely delayed this year. Temps in the solent are around 3c cooler this year compared to the last two years! And they aren't going to improve anytime soon!

Edited March 19, 2013 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[Tim Bland]

Re Meto forecasting snow further south...Don't forget they have more NWP data to analyse than we do

[Coast]

Please, is it really so difficult to stick to the topic title? There are threads for almost every single aspect of the weather on this forum, but this one is very specific - Model Output Discussion

Thank you

[winterof79]

Well it's better, but based on UKMO I'd still say it only looks good m62 northwards, brief period of sleet/snow only for mids currently.

Before it moves back south

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013031900/ECM0-120.GIF?19-12

[johnholmes]

Looking at the short term, say out to the weekend and it is a very difficult situation to get to grips with. How far north any milder air gets, how quickly, and how much snow for anywhere is far from easy. Closer than that how much of the snow in eastern Scotland and the far NE of England will edge south, again how far. Another very difficult forecasting problem.

Happy I do not have to go to print or be on TV for either of these questions!

As to further out then spring, in terms of dry warm sunshine and there is not much sign in the upper air charts of this happening. The 500mb anomaly charts are not showing any major pattern change out to 15 days ahead. No sign of a major upper ridge over SW Europe to give a flow from well south of west setting up at all.

[shaky]

Must admit Ian I was amazed to read the Met O forecast this morning for my region suggesting persistent snow. I have to be honest after looking at all the output today im not convinced its right and feel rain is more likely for my location and across much of the Midlands with the exception of maybe the N Midlands especially the Peak District.

As for the rest of the output and im still uncertain whether we shall see just a cold SE,ly or very cold E,ly with potential snow showers.

Personally i feel if you look at the ecm its all snow on friday and saturday for the midlands!!ukmo on the other hand is maybe snow tos start but then rain!and as i said before gfs is all rain!!

[Gibby]

Hi folks. Here is this mornings report of the 00z output from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for today Tuesday March 19th 2013.

All models show a slack area of Low pressure over Southern Britain with a cold NE flow over the North. A weak ridge develops down over the UK from the North tomorrow before a deep Low pressure to the SW on Thursday puts the UK under a strengthening SE flow with a complex frontal system approaching from the SW through the latter end of the day. On Friday and Saturday this is shown to extend further North and East across the UK albeit very slowly. All this will mean a showery day for the South today while the North sees another cold and windy day with sleet and snow in the NE persistent and accumulative at times. Tomorrow sees fewer showers and drier weather in the North too with Thursday largely dry for all before cloud and rain works its way slowly NE late Thursday and Friday turning to snow in the North with further accumulations with the chance of brighter and less cold weather temporarily reaching the extreme South on Saturday.

GFS then shows the Low to the SW filling and sliding ESE across France returning colder conditions back across the extreme South and leading to all areas having a mostly dry if rather cold spell with frosts at night through midweek. Through the latter end of the week and the Easter weekend the weather takes a turn downhill into milder and windy weather with spells of rain and showers over the Easter holiday in temperatures close to normal. Later in FI the Atlantic Westerly based theme continues with further rain at times in strong winds and temperatures no better than average for early April.

The GFS Ensembles show some indication of things becoming somewhat milder late this week and start of the weekend in the South though the period thereafter is like a maize of spaghetti between the members with a lot of variability between the members with some cold options shown too. The one constant is that the weather remains unsettled enough for all areas to see rain at times with little if any sign of anything very springlike shown again this morning.

The Jet Stream remains the main culprit for our sustained cold weather with it stubbornly remaining to the South of the UK. It does show some signs of wanting to move North later next week but at this stage it does seem quite a half hearted affair on current prognosis.

UKMO for the start of next week shows Low pressure that was down to the SW over the weekend with rain in the South and snow in the North move away ESE and fill. Milder air over the far South will be swept away back South so that all areas come under the influence of cold winds from the East with wintry showers in the East and some frost at night in the West.

GEM shows a similar pattern with if anything the cold intensifying later next week with sleet and snow showers blowing in from the East over the East side of the UK with some in the West too by day while sharp frosts at night would be a certainty. Good Fridays chart shows a slack cold airflow over the UK with sunshine and wintry showers the most likely weather after early sharp frost.

ECM finally shows a very similar evolution next week with the cold and windy conditions at the weekend lasting through much of next week too with opportunities for some snowfall in the form of showers in the East and also at times across the South as milder air continues to knock on the door of the SW with a mix of rain and even snow here at times very possible from these charts. It's chart for good Friday shows as per GEM a cold and slack NE airflow over the UK with a few wintry showers, sunny spells but cold with a widespread night frost.

In Summary there is little cheer from me this morning with regard to the likelihood of the onset of warm Spring weather anytime soon from this morning's output. With High pressure remaining to the North or NE of the UK and a Jet Stream that remains South of the UK we remain locked into potentially cold weather patterns for the foreseeable future. GFS does show a more progressive Atlantic based wind and rain pattern over Easter but with this weather type I doubt it would feel any warmer for many than it is now in the wind and rain. The extreme South may see some milder air encroach at the weekend before its swept away by early next week. The North though looks decidedly wintry throughout with further sleet or snow at times here. However, as has been the case in the South over the last few days any sunshine feels very pleasant as it's strength is equivalent to Mid September now but that really is the only crumb of comfort in a continuing disappointing start to Spring 2013.

[Chris W]

There looks a possibility of heavy snow Thursday from my reading of the GFS 00z as the low engages cold uppers over the midlands northwards:

I did see the GFS indicating possible high pressure and more springlike temperatures over us in one of its runs yesteday, in FI admittedly but I think that some signs are beginning to show. Otherwise if blocking and dominant easterly winds remain we do at least have a chance of remaining on the drier side - Saturday's rain demonstrated how high the water table still is with large puddles quickly reappearing after a few dry weeks.

Edited March 19, 2013 by Chris W