scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 17th March 2013 18:30>

[LomondSnowstorm]

Really should go to bed but radar promises more and more, what to do, what to do?

I'm waiting for that heavy stuff out at Duns to make a move before heading off and waking up early to catch the really heavy stuff, if the models are correct.

[Allyw12]

This is a prob a stupid question but is this the occlusion or is that to join the party later?

Edit: you beat me to it thanks LS

[LomondSnowstorm]

This is a prob a stupid question but is this the occlusion or is that to join the party later?

I've spent the last 24 hours trying to work this out but it's not an easy question Many possible fronts around, none of the different FAX charts agree, so honestly I don't know but I think the 'main' event is going to be in the morning.

[A Winter's Tale]

Correction on my earlier comment about the front - NMM shows heaviest precipitation, and hence (probably) THE main occlusion, coming in around 5am as expected, with intensity much greater than currently across Fife and the Lothians (which will be quite something).

Greatest marginality at the coast when it hits before we see temperature heading back down again through the morning. Remember the orange warning isn't in effect until 5am and so opportunities remain for those who've missed out so far.

Yeah, what surprised me that all of this snow has arrived well ahead of schedule so it seems that the worst is yet to come. So how and why on earth the met office haven't issued a red warning?! I presume that the NMM shows quite a severe scenario for more eastern areas but what effect will the front have on more central areas?

[Guest]

It's coming down in lumps and getting blown up in dusty swirls, a snow battle going on. Gorgeous scenes outside, exactly eight weeks ago to the hour of "that night" in January. If this keeps on it could be something amazing again.

Edit: ECM 12z going for glory, sorry if someone has already pointed this out but I've only just looked at it :lol:

Edited March 18, 2013 by CatchMyDrift

[Polar Gael 2]

Breaking news on Crimewatch:

[mountain shadow]

Thundersnow confirmed in Dundee by the mither.

Shes meant to be flying over here tomorrow from Edinburgh. Not looking good.

[doctormog]

Well the snow is meant to ease off in the morning up here...but I am still waiting for it to pick up. Non-event despite the warnings or simply too early to say?

Edited March 18, 2013 by doctormog

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yeah, what surprised me that all of this snow has arrived well ahead of schedule so it seems that the worst is yet to come. So how and why on earth the met office haven't issued a red warning?! I presume that the NMM shows quite a severe scenario for more eastern areas but what effect will the front have on more central areas?

Potentially quite a big one, moreso because there's no real marginality issues there either so could make for a hell of a rush hour on the mate

Still snowing here at a moderate rate, if it picks up a bit we might be in business but nothing on the scale of West Lothian, Fife, Dundee or Angus at the moment, though this at least backs up my map

Edited March 18, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Buriedundersnow]

NASA HIGH RES 12z 120h still has us in cold air with frontal snow moving north

whole run here

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geose_cartes.php?ech=3&code=0&mode=0&carte=0&archive=0

[lorenzo]

This is the way the satrep guys viewed things earlier this afternoon, might be of help to visualise things. The projected path of travel for the occlusion is mapped as inbound by midnight. Not sure how the present situation differs now..

[scottishandy]

Spot the difference.

[Ravelin]

The snow has been missing Kemnay since around 8pm but the cm or so lying from before that has really firmed up. So many showers heading in from the north sea they surely have to hit again eventually. Kids want a day off school tomorrow.

[Guest]

Potentially quite a big one, moreso because there's no real marginality issues there either so could make for a hell of a rush hour on the mate

Still snowing here at a moderate rate, if it picks up a bit we might be in business but nothing on the scale of West Lothian, Fife, Dundee or Angus at the moment, though this at least backs up my map

Can you repost the map or point me to the post, I can't find it and am far too lazy to read 23 pages of the thread to find it

[Sunny Leith]

Plenty decent looking cloud on the radar in the Forth estuary, but locally, really doing nothing more than some stuff blowing about in the wind in Leith.

Leith TOORP on hold till the morning though !

[A Winter's Tale]

Here's your map:

! Main risk of disruptive snowfall. Expect 2+ inches for most if not all of this area by Tuesday noon, and don't be surprised to see 6-8 inches even to low ground. Routes in this area including the A90, M90 and mate may be impassible tomorrow rush hour with heavy snow falling so avoid travel unless absolutely necessary (or if this forecast goes bust of course).

1. Also likely to take a big hit, though with some caveats. Western parts of this area are hit and miss as far as precipitation is concerned, though should still see some accumulations overnight. Eastern parts are in a high risk zone on this one - potential for as much of more snow than in the red zone but with a greater risk of uppers turning marginal or at the very south precipitation being too light. Still expect 1-2 inches away from the coast and potentially much more.

The northern zone is at risk from a separate streamer setting up in the Moray Firth and this will be less marginal but less intense so up to about 3 inches for Inverness maximum if there's a direct hit.

2. Light blue zone, affected by showers but not as likely to be in the direct stream of them for large periods, similar expectations to zone 1 with perhaps less upside for accumulation because precipitation is likely to be much less intense here. Marginality only an issue at the immediate coast.

3. In the firing line for much of the night, though gradually becoming less intense as the focus shifts southwards. Likely to be a good covering here though with perhps less potential for rush hour disruption as in the red zone.

4. Coastal diceyness in the yellow zone, probably falling as snow but how well this will accumulate overnight is a tough judgement call and looks less likely the further south you go. East Lothian may be more sheltered than the Fife coast from the on shore winds which means more chance of accumulations here but a fluid snow accumulation line, which may end up as far south as suburban Edinburgh or pushed back into the sea at points.

Plenty decent looking cloud on the radar in the Forth estuary, but locally, really doing nothing more than some stuff blowing about in the wind in Leith.

Leith TOORP on hold till the morning though !

[LomondSnowstorm]

This is the way the satrep guys viewed things earlier this afternoon, might be of help to visualise things. The projected path of travel for the occlusion is mapped as inbound by midnight. Not sure how the present situation differs now..

It just looks rather disjointed on the radar, with the 'curl' due east of Newcastle broadly in the same position as the analysis front's western end was at 5pm (which to my mind would make more sense). It sort of makes sense though, cheers, the front curl is now D+G southwards with the rest to the east of here feeding in and that curl out in the North Sea will at some point 'link on' when it reaches land.

[Buriedundersnow]

This is the way the satrep guys viewed things earlier this afternoon, might be of help to visualise things. The projected path of travel for the occlusion is mapped as inbound by midnight. Not sure how the present situation differs now..

well that way out from the fax charts they have it right through the central belt

[Polar Gael 2]

Finally, behold the Greenie High:

'Tis a thing of beauty.

All hail, the CoDSaC (COnsistent Deliverer [of] Snaw And Cauld)!

PS: So, looking at tonight's charts, chilly ECM Easter anyone?

Edited March 18, 2013 by Polar Gael 2

[LomondSnowstorm]

Can you repost the map or point me to the post, I can't find it and am far too lazy to read 23 pages of the thread to find it

Ici:

Here's your map:

! Main risk of disruptive snowfall. Expect 2+ inches for most if not all of this area by Tuesday noon, and don't be surprised to see 6-8 inches even to low ground. Routes in this area including the A90, M90 and mate may be impassible tomorrow rush hour with heavy snow falling so avoid travel unless absolutely necessary (or if this forecast goes bust of course).

1. Also likely to take a big hit, though with some caveats. Western parts of this area are hit and miss as far as precipitation is concerned, though should still see some accumulations overnight. Eastern parts are in a high risk zone on this one - potential for as much of more snow than in the red zone but with a greater risk of uppers turning marginal or at the very south precipitation being too light. Still expect 1-2 inches away from the coast and potentially much more.

The northern zone is at risk from a separate streamer setting up in the Moray Firth and this will be less marginal but less intense so up to about 3 inches for Inverness maximum if there's a direct hit.

2. Light blue zone, affected by showers but not as likely to be in the direct stream of them for large periods, similar expectations to zone 1 with perhaps less upside for accumulation because precipitation is likely to be much less intense here. Marginality only an issue at the immediate coast.

3. In the firing line for much of the night, though gradually becoming less intense as the focus shifts southwards. Likely to be a good covering here though with perhps less potential for rush hour disruption as in the red zone.

4. Coastal diceyness in the yellow zone, probably falling as snow but how well this will accumulate overnight is a tough judgement call and looks less likely the further south you go. East Lothian may be more sheltered than the Fife coast from the on shore winds which means more chance of accumulations here but a fluid snow accumulation line, which may end up as far south as suburban Edinburgh or pushed back into the sea at points.

After this winter I understand your frustration BT, it's not simply the marginality but the fact that the heavy stuff just seems to avoid us altogether even when the radar looks like it should be immensely snowy.

[November13]

well that way out from the fax charts they have it right through the central belt

yep have to be patient in central.Been not much so far.Just got to trust the charts.

[scottishandy]

Right must sleep, wishing you all cold ankles (or knees) in the morning.

[Sunny Leith]

Ach well, its not over till the fat lady etc ....

Good shout there on your forecast map anyway.

Edit: only lamp-post type snow here, streets wet, cars wet, hedges glistening with water. Residual slush patches but that's all. Not a pretty sight.

Ici:

After this winter I understand your frustration BT, it's not simply the marginality but the fact that the heavy stuff just seems to avoid us altogether even when the radar looks like it should be immensely snowy.

Edited March 18, 2013 by by-tor

[101_North]

Almost bed time. Let's see what overnight and tomorrow brings. So far it's about 2" on the grass, 1.5" on the car and paths/road anywhere between 1cm and 1" depending on how wet it was earlier. Where it's drifted it's about 5-6".

[Polarlow]

I think we have just had the Heaviest Blizzard come through Dundee 5 mins ago...... Amazing stuff !! Video to come later !!!