Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Jax]

Models (and forecasts on TV) all showing the cold lasting longer than expected.

Great if you like it cold, bad news if you don't.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Models (and forecasts on TV) all showing the cold lasting longer than expected.

Great if you like it cold, bad news if you don't.

Great if you dont like rain, GFS still shows poor tuesday, rain for midlands

[Purga]

Models (and forecasts on TV) all showing the cold lasting longer than expected.

Great if you like it cold, bad news if you don't.

[Jax]

Great if you dont like rain, GFS still shows poor tuesday, rain for midlands

It can be cold and wet or Warmer and wet this time of year, outlook for the next few days in this area is looking cold and dry, silver lining is the high builds and that "butcher" wind may just calm a bit.

[Snowman.]

Well SHOCK as the ECM keeps us cold.

Unsure about that run how can people stick crave cold in April even though it's unlikely to deliver.

[Froze were the Days]

My God!...getting fed up of this, feel sorry for the poor birdies trying to nest and wildlife!

[mcweather]

Just for a bit of fun I have been looking at the CFS daily 9 months runs over the last over the last couple of weeks.

A consistent pattern of a cold and snowy spell developing around christmas /new year has been showing.

It may interest members to know that when I was doing the same last august and september the most consistent

pattern that came up was for very cold weather in March 2013

[mushymanrob]

the ecm 12z is the coldest run and seldom does reality reflect its prediction.not to the same level anyway.

[keithlucky]

Farmer says what we all think

[weather_it_will]

Farmer says what we all think

Not the farmer thing again!

They will manage. They always have done since the earth started spinning.

Edited April 4, 2013 by Deep Freeze

[keithlucky]

Not the farmer thing again!

They will manage. They always have done since the earth started spinning.

Yes he wrote this with his quad bike when he was trying to find his buried sheep

[davehsug]

Yes he wrote this with his quad bike when he was trying to find his buried sheep

So many dead sheep & lambs, Oh! How we laughed!

[Paul]

Let's not go back through this again please, it's all entirely unrelated in any way to the models too..

[matty40s]

I drove down from staffordshire to hertfordshire this morning, it was lighly snowing and you could see the snow blowing in the wind along the motorways.

I was in Berkhamsted for lunchtime, snowing lightly, and then drove back up the M1 towards Leicester. the snow didn't stop until Northampton Junc 16.

This weather pattern and synoptics are very unusual , I am enjoying watching the events upfold, even if it has cost me money to get my cars underplates replaced last week as they were torn off by the staffs snowdrifts 2 weeks ago.

[mushymanrob]

nice to see a set of decent, realistic, non biased posts this morning on the model discussion thread.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

no UKMO again? not been updated since 'mercredi 3 Avril'

[phil nw.]

The indications of milder weather later next week is certainly overdue imo.Cold and snow is not unusual in early Spring but the fact that this cold spell has been around for weeks makes this trend welcome as far i am concerned.

Apart from the benefit to Farmers and growers it will encourage many of us into going outside more i would think.I for one will be looking forward to playing some golf without so many layers on after so long.

The warm up will be gradual and probably more noticeable by the end of next week- if current modeling verifies.

Indeed although temps around 10-13C are quite modest with some sun this will feel positively warm compared to the last several weeks.

[weather_it_will]

no UKMO again? not been updated since 'mercredi 3 Avril'

Try a site that works!

UKMO updates fine every day!

[Summer Sun]

no UKMO again? not been updated since 'mercredi 3 Avril'

Works here http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

[Thundery wintry showers]

The indications of milder weather later next week is certainly overdue imo.Cold and snow is not unusual in early Spring but the fact that this cold spell has been around for weeks makes this trend welcome as far i am concerned.

Apart from the benefit to Farmers and growers it will encourage many of us into going outside more i would think.I for one will be looking forward to playing some golf without so many layers on after so long.

The warm up will be gradual and probably more noticeable by the end of next week- if current modeling verifies.

Indeed although temps around 10-13C are quite modest with some sun this will feel positively warm compared to the last several weeks.

The above is supported by the GFS, but I think there's a good chance that, at least over the northern two-thirds of the country, it might be more of a step-change.

The UKMO and ECMWF have the low pressure systems tracking further south which will most likely leave the maxima of 10-13C restricted to southern England, with warmer temperatures further north being down to warmer nights under cloud and rain, but the ECMWF operational runs and ensembles have consistently been showing a strong build of pressure to the east of the British Isles for next weekend. There is the possibility that the weather might flick a switch and suddenly turn warm, sunny and dry for next weekend, after a rather cool cloudy changeable week, which I imagine would pleasantly shock a lot of people.

Edited April 5, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[phil nw.]

The above is supported by the GFS, but I think there's a good chance that, at least over the northern two-thirds of the country, it might be more of a step-change.

The UKMO and ECMWF have the low pressure systems tracking further south which will most likely leave the maxima of 10-13C restricted to southern England, with warmer temperatures further north being down to warmer nights under cloud and rain, but the ECMWF operational runs and ensembles have consistently been showing a strong build of pressure to the east of the British Isles for next weekend. There is the possibility that the weather might flick a switch and suddenly turn warm, sunny and dry for next weekend, after a rather cool cloudy changeable week, which I imagine would pleasantly shock a lot of people.

Yes a mean High just to our east or south east is certainly a possibility in a week or so TWS which as you suggest will certainly warm things up for those further south It will take a few days to firm things up as the jet moves north across us before those heights start to build from the south.

[Purga]

It wouldn't be my 'ideal' weather either as I prefer cold crisp conditions - I was just commenting on what I believe 240Hr ECM would deliver on the ground for most of the UK. Gibby / Reef have endorsed that viewpoint but it is likely that the evolution will be different as it is in FI.

Look, we've got High pressure appearing again near the Pole and also to the SW of Greenland

It is not out of the question that retrogression & N blocking could not evolve again out of this situation.

Edited April 5, 2013 by Purga

[karyo]

but we have to get there yet, its only one option possible. me, abig moaner, sees nothing to worry about. this cold is finally going. it wont be as cold again until november.

good riddance.

Yes, but with the sun remaining quiet we will hopefully see lengthy cold spells like this one becoming more frequent in the coming years.

Karyo

[Purga]

[mushymanrob]

Yes, but with the sun remaining quiet we will hopefully NOT see lengthy cold spells like this one becoming more frequent in the coming years.

Karyo

ha ha... amended your post!

but if lengthy cold became commonplace people would soon tire of it, it would lose its novelty appeal as its impact on the economy would dig in. i think most people would sooner spend their money on others things then inflated food/fuel prices.