Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Methuselah]

I'd appreciate some extended warmth but, so long as there's a reasonable amount of sunshine, I'm not that bothered by some rainfall; I love to see verdant spring and summer vegetation...That said, slugs are somewhat less welcome! 

[mushymanrob]

True, it seems the hunt for cold has generally been replaced by the hunt for warm and dry. Seems I was naiive for thinking we'd get unbiased general weather discussion when winter came to an end, should have known better! Although still some good discussion and analysis in there from the usual suspects.

 

.... but the 'hunt for warm' has been fully supported with actual data, theres no "what we need now is for 'x' to move this way and 'y' to move that way then bingo! "., ie no fantasy evolutions, no hopecasting, just posts discribing what actual charts show.

 

the data did clearly suggest high pressure dominance later this week and beyond into may, so that isnt biased.

[mushymanrob]

yyechh... more cold weather.... gonna go down as one of the coldest springs ever, with just over 2 weeks of spring left before summer starts, its like spring never really got going. true, weve had a few nice days here and there, but on the whole march-may will be cold.

 

any decent settled weather is always in fi... and i cant see this 'settled last week in may' happening. its going to go out cool, and summer will start cool, with no prospect of any improvement.

[Jax]

Models may show one thing, but what we get seems to still remain the "un-wanted" type,  really hoping the LR showing of things maybe improving make manifest, and soon.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Models may show one thing, but what we get seems to still remain the "un-wanted" type, really hoping the LR showing of things maybe improving make manifest, and soon.

same here Jax only the other week i was walking around skeggy with shorts n t shirt on it feels like de ja vu its going to be same old same old it was warmer at xmas time the weather here in blighty is getting worse

[Jax]

same here Jax only the other week i was walking around skeggy with shorts n t shirt on it feels like de ja vu its going to be same old same old it was warmer at xmas time the weather here in blighty is getting worse

Oh I hope it is not a repeat of 2012, and we do "finally" get something warmer (and dryer) this summer/autumn

[Bradowl]

We're not much more than 4 weeks away from longest day and road back into winter begins.

It's pouring with rain right now and short term forecast doesn't look good.

Another summer that looks like going down in record books as poor is on cards once more.

[Costa Del Fal]

We're not much more than 4 weeks away from longest day and road back into winter begins.It's pouring with rain right now and short term forecast doesn't look good.Another summer that looks like going down in record books as poor is on cards once more.

Apart from shortening days the road to winter is far. The warmest months are more July and August. 

[IanR]

We're not much more than 4 weeks away from longest day and road back into winter begins.It's pouring with rain right now and short term forecast doesn't look good.Another summer that looks like going down in record books as poor is on cards once more.

winters a long way off, november actually, just like the coldest weather usually occurs after the shortest day, warmer weather is more likely after the longest day, July is statistically hotter than june , and august is as just likely to be as warm or warmer than june.I say warm , tepid is more apt thesedays , were is that warming climate the boffins were so adamant about a few years ago. olive trees and vinyards in Cheshire my a*****

[phil nw.]

The pattern is evolving nicely for a decent start to summer methinks.

The mean outputs consistently showing a large Azores high for the next 2 weeks or so with low heights over the pole-a more typical +ve NAO setup as we go into June.

Not wall to wall sunshine all the time with some cooler and cloudier spells around the north and east ie-the periphery of the high but a much better outlook for the start June than last year.

A good sign that the mean track of the PFJ will stay further north as we start Summer.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The Azores High looked more favourably placed a few days ago to bring warmer sunnier conditions into the south, but the model runs always pointed to the possibility of relatively cool cloudy conditions residing over most of the British Isles and current outputs are making more of the northerly flow.  The cold northerly blast on the 23rd may bring sunshine and sharp, locally thundery, showers to the eastern side of Britain before cloudier drier weather takes hold afterwards due to mixing out of the arctic air from the NE.

 

This is really a matter of taste but while those dry but often cloudy and convection-free regimes on the N/E flanks of the Azores High are attractive to many, I tend to find them quite tedious (I would take one of them over what we had last June, but that's not saying much).  However, one factor that I can't deny is that when the Azores High influences our weather this closely, it only requires a small north/eastward shift of the pattern to bring extended warm/hot, sunny spells over many parts of the country- take the transition around the 21st June 1995 for a stark example, which led into that famous summer scorcher.  With last June's pattern we were about as far away from that end result as it is possible to get.

Edited May 19, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[phil nw.]

Yes at least the low heights over the pole with mid-latitude or Atlantic high pressure is different to last year and that`s my main point really.

No great heat is on the cards with the high out west a bit but at this time of year the strong sun when it pops out will make it feel pleasant enough.

Of course there will be days like later next week when places further east will feel cool under the cloud and showery rain in the northerly but overall a decent setup for a lot of dry and fine weather especially further west.

No great amounts of rainfall look likely in this pattern so quite acceptable for outdoor activities for many.

[Costa Del Fal]

I find it disturbing in the sense of how low pressure is really anchored to NW Europe at the moment and the last lot of summers. High pressure just cannot make its way in. This is a decisive summer IMO and another cool and wet one could set the tone for some summers to come. Who knows but even though there seems less northern blocking presently low pressure is still spawning around us like the winter vortex. Depressing how the only really cold uppers are just directed straight at Britain and no where else. It's the same story of the last few years. Everywhere else generally enjoys whilst we suffer under cool weather and frequently wet.

Edited May 19, 2013 by Blizzards

[Tamara]

The jet stream looks to stay very amplified to me and thus pressure in the atlantic is readily ridging northwards to allow cold pools to be ejected south and keeping cut off low pressure close to the UK and Europe.  The AO profile may not be exactly the same as this time last year, but effectively with such a meridional pattern that is keeping the jet stream ribbon suppressed and looping over our part of the NH then the net effect frankly imo is not much different in terms of what we are seeing on the ground - albeit in relative terms not quite as unsettled and wet. But then it would take a lot to beat what we saw this time last year and onward from there

 

Until, or if, the jet stream pattern changes to a less meridional one, then it is hard to see how the Azores high is going to be able to be pushed eastwards to provide warmer and more settled weather for any sustained period without a flatter and more northerly tracking jetstream to assist this

[Barry12]

All this model watching can be pointless at times, while the models were inconsistent, the Met Office were consistent the whole time, and consistently right

[johnholmes]

meridional pattern that is keeping the jet stream ribbon suppressed and looping over our part of the NH

?

I suspect the word you are wanting Tamara is not suppressed?

[Terminal Moraine]

Nothing to moan about regarding the models here at Chateau Terminal where the search for cold and wet continues unabated, indeed the latter part of next week and the Bank Holiday weekend are looking particularly tasty. 

However,not being one to wallow in others' unhappiness as they search with equal vigour for dry warmth, will it be any sort of consolation to  think of old Terminal with a smile on his face and a spring in his step if the current charts come to fruition?

No, I thought not.

[johnholmes]

of course it would but I suspect most of us would prefer it to be a small radius around

Chateau Terminal. It would have to be a small one as I am leading a walk on the Sunday about 10 miles NNE of you!

Edited May 19, 2013 by johnholmes

[Barry12]

my moan is that the models wont show a heatwave.

Edited May 19, 2013 by Barry95

[Tamara]

meridional pattern that is keeping the jet stream ribbon suppressed and looping over our part of the NH

?

I suspect the word you are wanting Tamara is not suppressed?

Yes, thank you John. Schoolgirl grammatical error

[Chris K]

Anyone remember this fella? He's back again laughing in the face of the UK...

[Costa Del Fal]

Christ almighty the charts look just as bad if not worse than last year. If this summer ends up the same as last year, Id say we are generally screwed for some years to come if this really is down to Arctic sea ice etc but im hoping there must be more to it than that. Im hoping its a combination of the wrong reasons at the wrong time i.e low sun activity as well. But there is nothing more depressing than seeing generally low heights in the Arctic yet still seeing low after low suddenly dive SE and attack the UK. Fair enough, France, Germany, parts of Scandinavia are also suffering a bit too but High pressure is just sitting there in a big circle with no motivation to ridge at all. Very bleak prospects id say.

[nick sussex]

Good grief this May down here has been dire, atrocious would be an understatement. Just reading the local paper temperatures are currently running 5C below average. The rain has been relentless, I've had my heating on for most of the month! The outlook looks equally deflating with limpet troughing reluctant to leave Europe.

Some hints of high pressure on the ECM in FI but so far this hasn't lasted into the more reliable timeframe, and it could well be that high pressure much further north delivers yet more dismal conditions to southern Europe with lower pressure here.

[Summer Sun]

Good grief this May down here has been dire, atrocious would be an understatement. Just reading the local paper temperatures are currently running 5C below average. The rain has been relentless, I've had my heating on for most of the month! The outlook looks equally deflating with limpet troughing reluctant to leave Europe.Some hints of high pressure on the ECM in FI but so far this hasn't lasted into the more reliable timeframe, and it could well be that high pressure much further north delivers yet more dismal conditions to southern Europe with lower pressure here.

 

Sounds like a carbon copy of our weather last year rain, rain and more bloody rain with just 2 notable settled periods late May (for one week) and during the Olympics

[rmc1987]

By all accounts the models suggest yet more poor weather? How surprising, here we are it's 18c and everyone is loving it. That's now poor it has been, mind you it was 8c the other day.

Norway is seeing temperatures in the 20's, in fact the place I was at back in Hanuary which was -10c by day has recently seen 27c more than once and had a good forecast of 23c for week ahead.

This is made worse because it is continuous with barely a let up. Maybe a day or two blip at best.

Agh

I'd agree with the views of screwed for years to come, we already have been screwed for the last few years. Any settled spell in April or May has been our summer of late.

Had ours this year albeit a poor attempt!