Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Summer Sun]

The GFS ensemble average run doesn't support the FI northerly unsurprisingly

Op

Ensemble run

Its fair to say GFS is a cold outlier in FI

Edited April 7, 2013 by Gavin.

[mushymanrob]

note the so called 'mildies' or warmth lovers arent posting endless cherry picked charts and ramping them up in the way cold lovers do

[AWD]

note the so called 'mildies' or warmth lovers arent posting endless cherry picked charts and ramping them up in the way cold lovers do

Yes there is. There are charts in there for April 20th+ yet very little about the weather this week.

It would be a far nicer place if we didn't have this "coldie" and "mildie" crap. I'm neither, my interest in the weather is just that, an interest in all types of weather (most types away from cloudy and dull), and not in a particular weather type.

In winter the MOD forums are over run by a particular weather type and the same in the summer. Aside from a few balanced posted such as Gibby etc, its just a hunt for [insert weather type]. This is why I don't bother posting in the MOD thread much, but instead post in the regionals. If I post something against a particular weather type, dependant on which season it is, then I find myself getting bombarded with nonsense, no matter how honest and true my posts are about the model output.

Both "mildies" and "coldies" are as bad as one another IMO, both searching for weather that satisfies their preference, no matter how likely or unlikely it is to come off. Its worse in winter only because there are more "coldies" than there are "mildies".

Cut this crap and enjoy all types of weather and have a general interest in our meteorological climate, along with respect for those who post against a particular weather type and it would be a much more pleasent thread.

Rant over! ;)

[weather_it_will]

note the so called 'mildies' or warmth lovers arent posting endless cherry picked charts and ramping them up in the way cold lovers do

They have done with the T384 charts showing a heatwave this morning.

As the charts are not showing anything warm in the reliable time, I would not expect to see any such charts.

It still feels very cold in the wind now despite the milder temperatures today and this week.

Edited April 8, 2013 by Deep Freeze

[Methuselah]

note the so called 'mildies' or warmth lovers arent posting endless cherry picked charts and ramping them up in the way cold lovers do

Hotties are much more fun...I'll get my coat!

[mushymanrob]

Yes there is. There are charts in there for April 20th+ yet very little about the weather this week.

It would be a far nicer place if we didn't have this "coldie" and "mildie" crap. I'm neither, my interest in the weather is just that, an interest in all types of weather (most types away from cloudy and dull), and not in a particular weather type.

In winter the MOD forums are over run by a particular weather type and the same in the summer. Aside from a few balanced posted such as Gibby etc, its just a hunt for [insert weather type]. This is why I don't bother posting in the MOD thread much, but instead post in the regionals. If I post something against a particular weather type, dependant on which season it is, then I find myself getting bombarded with nonsense, no matter how honest and true my posts are about the model output.

Both "mildies" and "coldies" are as bad as one another IMO, both searching for weather that satisfies their preference, no matter how likely or unlikely it is to come off. Its worse in winter only because there are more "coldies" than there are "mildies".

Cut this crap and enjoy all types of weather and have a general interest in our meteorological climate, along with respect for those who post against a particular weather type and it would be a much more pleasent thread.

Rant over!

whilst i do fully agree with you, theres one point that i dont and its why i posted what i did this morning...

theres nowhere near the excitement and ramping over 1 cherry picked chart outside winter as there is in winter.

[mushymanrob]

They have done with the T384 charts showing a heatwave this morning.

As the charts are not showing anything warm in the reliable time, I would not expect to see any such charts.

It still feels very cold in the wind now despite the milder temperatures today and this week.

after i had posted that this morning.... there was only1 showing hot charts when i did.

felt ok for me today, cold start but by midday it wasnt too bad.

[mushymanrob]

you can tell when winters over....

you only get half a dozen overnight posts in the md thread

oh ive just seen blizzards posted this...

Edited April 9, 2013 by mushymanrob

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Yes, I noticed that too. Winter season seemed to go on for months this year, so the winter model fans must be exhausted after posting for so long. See you in the Autumn guys - thanks for all the great insights and reports!

But l am an all year round netweather person. I am one of the people who if you asked "Would you prefer to see a '76 style summer or a '47 winter, I wouldn't know which one to pick. U guess that is why I chose 1947 winter and summer as my weather preference on here as it was probably the only year of last century to combine an epic winter with a lovely warm summer!

The GFS model this morning seems to be predicting a combination of Atlantic lows interspersed with warm southerlies to my untrained eye? Ideal growing conditions if so!

Edited April 9, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Polar Maritime]

you can tell when winters over....

you only get half a dozen overnight posts in the md thread

oh ive just seen blizzards posted this...

Yes Mushy, It's a case of "is anyone there" To be honest i use this forum all year round, Winter is an exiting time of the year for me especially at my altitude, but i do enjoy all weather types and during the Summer things are much more friendly and laid back on this forum, giving some members a chance to post and learn without getting there heads bitten off by the seasonal winter rampers. At least Gavin can now relax a little knowing high pressure is on the way It's been a long hard Winter.... Im looking forward to some cracking thunder storms now At least things are looking more promising for the growers out there, as i understand it can be tough when you are relying on such an unpredictable climate..

Edited April 9, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Come on then, admit it..

Who's going to miss our resident easterly when it disappears shortly?

I'm thinking this is the most days with winds from an easterly direction during a 30 day period. Probably a difficult thing to verify?

Edited April 9, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[mushymanrob]

yeah ill miss the easterly like id miss toothache. lol

[Captain Shortwave]

yeah ill miss the easterly like id miss toothache. lol

a 30 day easterly in July would surely be welcome , unless it's 30 days of haar of course. If that's the case I would set up permanent residence in here

[Milhouse]

a 30 day easterly in July would surely be welcome , unless it's 30 days of haar of course. If that's the case I would set up permanent residence in here

Easterlies are very hit and miss during Summer. We could get one sourced straight from the continent bring sparking blue skies like last May or we could get one like late June 1995 with temperatures only in the mid teens here but high 20s in the west. But either way its a cool direction for us so i hope we dont see another easterly for a very long time.

[hec1]

Well at least Sunday should be windy which is more fun than boring cloudy weather.

[Captain Shortwave]

Easterlies are very hit and miss during Summer. We could get one sourced straight from the continent bring sparking blue skies like last May or we could get one like late June 1995 with temperatures only in the mid teens here but high 20s in the west. But either way its a cool direction for us so i hope we dont see another easterly for a very long time.

To be honest any wind direction would be cool for certain areas of the country (southerlies are probably the best result as the English channel is usually the warmest and the least amount of seatrack to moderate temperatures even at the coast)

My location usually does well from summer easterlies as the fetch off the sea is pretty short as flow comes from Holland rather than the Baltic sea. Which means clear summer days with pleasant temperatures. On the other hand Bartlett south westerlies are fantastic, especially if the flow bends round from Spain which brings drier/clearer air (less humidity )

[weather_it_will]

5% risk of snow at the end of the GEFS ensembles. for 26th April.

Make a note in your diary.

It usually never happens that far out though, but it's a bit of fun.

No real trend for hot or cold yet!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I'm looking forward to the day I can put a pair of shorts on in the morning instead of trousers (aka a temperate in excess of 21C) Ok, so our postie has been wearing shorts most the winter but he's the exception!

It is 8 months since the majority of the UK hit 21C or above. Mid August 2012.

Edited April 11, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

A warmish weekend to look forward to next week hopefully. Anything else is firmly in FI so I'm not worrying about that just yet!

[mushymanrob]

dont think ive ever witnessed such a dramatic arrival of spring. after being put on hold for a month, its certainly sprung now! within a few days. 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Pretty dramatic here in the Midlands too, but even more dramatic temperature rises on mainland Europe. They had 30C on Sunday on the Med!

It is lovely to see that huge swathe of yellows and golds across Europe with it looking like it will soon envelope the UK too.

It was only a few weeks ago that the whole of Europe was covered in the greens, blues and purples!

Happy days!

Edited April 15, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[weather_it_will]

dont think ive ever witnessed such a dramatic arrival of spring. after being put on hold for a month, its certainly sprung now! within a few days. 

The only warmer day was sunday.

It's still not warm enough for me to celebrate spring, and apart from a few days here and there, the outlook is not good for warm weather.

Maybe in June it will improve?

[mushymanrob]

The only warmer day was sunday.It's still not warm enough for me to celebrate spring, and apart from a few days here and there, the outlook is not good for warm weather.Maybe in June it will improve?

what are you talking about?theres now been four consecutive days where most of the country has max,d at above average. its like the cold never happened, spring is in full flow with the full dawnchorus, migrants, leaves bursting, flowers in full bloom, the grass is green andgrowing theres butterflies, bees out and frogspawn in ponds. you try to spin that springs not happening? where do you live?on top of ben nevis? or are you the biggest denier of all time. everyone reading this will judge whether or not spring has sprung just by looking out their window regardless to what you say.

[Scorcher]

Loads of trolling going on in the MOD thread tonight, the coldies are trying to hijack it again by the looks of it, picking our charts that are 10 days away to try and support their hopes for another big freeze- not happening I'm afraid!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

There will be no more big freezes in the Midlands where I live now til October at the earliest barring some huge volcanic eruption happening plunging us into another 1816 event. However, we could still get frosts and a short sharp cold snap and even snow very occasionally this late, especially up north.

Edited April 17, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see