Model Output Discussion 12z 03/04/13

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM T168

High pressure building over North East Canada into Greenland as well, Atlantic blocked.

Edited April 4, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Snowman.]

You know what I say to the ECM?

Oh and I hit a 1000 posts without even realizing!!!

Edited April 4, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[SE Blizzards]

ECM @ 168, and still no real mild weather, in fact still decidedly chilly

[Purga]

Where's all this mild weather then?

Edited April 4, 2013 by Purga

[Snowman.]

Where's all this mild weather then?

You could still hit teens in that uppers aren't exactly cold.

[Bradowl]

For all the talk of summer could be cold or wet or both and it probably following the last x summers to some folk. The question is why, how about some meteorological reasons?

Maybe we could open a thread on why summer 2013 will be cold and or wet?

Think back a few years and the belief with some that a cold winter would never be possible, real deep cold in any month was unlikely? Nov-Dec 2010, winter 2009-10 etc, even January this year for over 2 weeks to say nothing of the second most extreme March in some parts?

Why could not the blocking which seems rather more common not work for summer with heat and spells of dry weather. Heaven forbid it becomes a drought but why not?

If a thread is started on why summer 2013 is cold and wet we'll be nailed on for 3 solid months of scorchin sunshine with temps 30'c+ every day.

[ANYWEATHER]

If the ecm is to believed, forget any warm up...

[SE Blizzards]

If the ecm is to believed, forget any warm up...

Yes, if it is mild air u are wanting then the ECM is a disaster!

[Summer Sun]

High pressure builds at t192

And t216

Milder air into the SW

Edited April 4, 2013 by Gavin.

[Bristawl Si]

If the ecm is to believed, forget any warm up...

Hmmm......are the Meto barking up the wrong tree, for next week?

[Purga]

You could still hit teens in that uppers aren't exactly cold.

Hmmm maybe in some favoured parts but with a cold NE drift off a very cold North Sea many areas of eastern / SE england / Scotland would struggle to reach double digits under what would probably be cloud cover. Edited April 4, 2013 by Purga

[SE Blizzards]

High pressure builds at t192

And t216

Milder air into the SW

LOL, mild air into the SW ....a full 5 days later than first forecast!

[Captain Shortwave]

We went through the entire winter struggling to get a negative NAO, maybe the reverse problem could occur here

Heights over North East Canada and Greenland yet again. The jet would struggle to push far enough north to get milder air in.

[UV-RAY]

The block over Greenland really is proving a nightmare for the models, each attempted breakdown keeps getting put further back. At some point we will see the Atlantic break through but my just how stubborn as this block been.

[Milhouse]

High pressure entering throught the back door on this ECM rather than ridging up from the south. I dont buy this at all and would back something like what NAVGEM is suggesting with high pressure over Russia holding firm and deflecting low pressure northwards. Ecm does seem overly keen on bulldozing low pressure through.

[IanR]

Seems to me like the temps at the weekend early next week are no mans land stuff, still below normal but not exactly the deep cold that some crave, just pointless cold/coolness, with the warmer temps now delayed until Wednesday or later.

[SE Blizzards]

SHOCK HORROR... Someone backing the NAVGEM over the ECM? Headline news for sure!

[Summer Sun]

t240 ends with the high staying put keeping the Atlantic blocked off

[Frosty.]

High pressure builds at t192

And t216

Milder air into the SW

Yet again the big change to milder weather has been delayed and then delayed some more, it looks like remaining on the cold side although not as cold as it was today in the southeast but temps continuing below average for the foreseeable with a cold unsettled spell next week although temps then recovering but it's a big step back from a few days ago when it looked like it would be mild by next monday or tuesday, try next thurs or fri before it can be classified as mild. The Gfs 12z shows regular alternation between milder and colder airmasses throughout FI but with no sign of a sustained warmer settled spell on the horizon, cold, cool, frost, wintry showers, rain, sleet, hill snow dominate the outlook for the next week but this weekend looks fine and bright but chilly with widespread frosts, sound familiar?

[SE Blizzards]

High pressure entering throught the back door on this ECM rather than ridging up from the south. I dont buy this at all and would back something like what NAVGEM is suggesting with high pressure over Russia holding firm and deflecting low pressure northwards. Ecm does seem overly keen on bulldozing low pressure through.

SHOCK HORROR... Someone backing the NAVGEM over the ECM? Headline news for sure!

[Captain Shortwave]

High pressure entering throught the back door on this ECM rather than ridging up from the south. I dont buy this at all and would back something like what NAVGEM is suggesting with high pressure over Russia holding firm and deflecting low pressure northwards. Ecm does seem overly keen on bulldozing low pressure through.

If you have heights over Russia, where will low heights be? Over Scandinavia like ECM

Sorry but I have never bought the magical retilting of the jet to SW/NE bringing in these mild south westerlies and GFS is on it's own with this evolution.

Geez the last two frames of the ECM would see us on the verge of a tanking -AO again

Edited April 4, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Geordiesnow]

Problem with the output I feel is at one point it looked like next week could of turned milder but cloudier but now it looks like it could remain on the cool side and on the cloudy side which suggests it will feel less like spring next week than this week has.

Does show be careful what you wish for, BBC forecasters seemed to be full of glee of having low pressure approching us bringing us milder air because it will eventually turn less cold but it seems this could no longer be the case because of the lack of sunshine I would suspect with the upcoming set up.

[Purga]

Looks like the HP is drifting north again

Interesting development .

[Milhouse]

If you have heights over Russia, where will low heights be? Over Scandinavia like ECM

Sorry but I have never bought the magical retilting of the jet to SW/NE bringing in these mild south westerlies and GFS is on it's own with this evolution.

Geez the last two frames of the ECM would see us on the verge of a tanking -AO again

Slightly off with my high pressure positioning. I meant more eastern Europe than Russia.

[Tim Bland]

ECM brings the cold east to southeasterly winds as per UKMO on Monday and Tuesday

What do people think the chances are of a final snow event Mon / Tues?