Manmade Climate Change Discussion

[UV-RAY]

I'm finding the sceptic, manmade threads confusing. My view is clear, so I have not, ONCE, posted to the 'sceptic' thread. I don't mind what is written there, even though I disagree with all of it - I'll respect it and not post to it. But, what should I expect of this, 'my', thread? Should I expect the discussion I see above with views I disagree with? Am I going to have to put my case in a thread that's designed to be free of debate? " members take part in the discussions that best match their own views, and not in the discussions which don't."   Clarification please.

Re-read my post its not meant to cause arguments it's a question on proxies. I actually said I think the conclusion of the report won't be that far off. Maybe a new thread on proxies would be more appropriate, but we all know it will end in chaos.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Asking for clarification!? Calling it silly!? Run before the ban hammer is unleashed!

[loafer]

I think the idea is that it is a bit like going to someone elses house - you have to be on your best behaviour.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A paper (with clear cherry picking, improper statistical methods and ignoring of recent data to form a false conclusion) reported on by WUWT, and thoroughly debunked by Tamino.

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/08/09/a-mournful-application-of-care-and-skill/

[knocker]

An open copy of the Kinnard sea ice hockey stick can be found here:

 

http://gizmo.geotop.uqam.ca/devernalA/Kinnard_et_al_nature_2011.pdf

[knocker]

Interview with Michael Mann A bit of a long listen but interesting.

http://www.theskepticsguide.org/

Edited August 12, 2013 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2013/08/116_140972.html

 

I'd been reading around the debate sparked by the 'Methane costs' debate and realised that many of the arguments against the scenario are pretty shaky to say the least? The above is further evidence of why we cannot look to 125,000yrs ago a a useful comparison to what we see occuring in the east Siberian Shelf sea today.

 

As I have said before the first time i encountered the submerged permafrosts was during my A level Geography back in 1982 and at that time we were taught we had many thousands of years before we could expect any degradation of the deposits. Much has changed over the intervening period but it appears that many folk still cling onto the old philosophy and make no account for the past 5 years of worrying developments/changes to those deposits.

 

I would implore folk to 'watch this space'.

[Gray-Wolf]

Just thought i'd share a little nugget that the Artful dodger came out with when reassuring posters about a clumbsy troll that appeared over at Nevens place. He said the Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stone and in the same way the age of denial will not end because folk run out of things to deny.......they'll just be too busy dealing with the impacts of climate shift to keep up with being stupid........

[Methuselah]

Just thought i'd share a little nugget that the Artful dodger came out with when reassuring posters about a clumbsy troll that appeared over at Nevens place. He said the Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stone and in the same way the age of denial will not end because folk run out of things to deny.......they'll just be too busy dealing with the impacts of climate shift to keep up with being stupid........

 

Eh?

Edited August 13, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[Jax]

Just thought i'd share a little nugget that the Artful dodger came out with when reassuring posters about a clumbsy troll that appeared over at Nevens place. He said the Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stone and in the same way the age of denial will not end because folk run out of things to deny.......they'll just be too busy dealing with the impacts of climate shift to keep up with being stupid........

They do what now?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I though I'd try a piece of very basic (riddled with errors no doubt) analysis.

 

We know that ENSO influences global temperature, so how about trying making an estimate of it's effect on global temperatures and trying to take that from the UAH record?

Here's the original temperature data, from UAH. It has a trend of 0.137C/decade.

 

A correlation between the ENSO monthly values and the UAH monthly values yielded a strongest correlation with a 4 month lag of +0.352.

To try adjust for ENSO, I took the average monthly SST anomalies across the ENSO region and divided them by 5, which seemed to produce a reasonable temperature range.. 

These combined, contributes to between a maximum of 0.32C and a minimum of -0.23C to any individual year. For example, 1998 (very large El Nino) got a estimated +0.32C boost from ENSO, while for example, 2011 (moderate La Nina) got an estimated -0.16C reduction due to ENSO.  I realise these are just estimates btw!

 

Anyway, below is a graph representing the estimated monthly ENSO impact of temperatures.

 

 

Taking them from the UAH temperature, we get this...

 

 

The effects of Pinatubo and El Chichon become quite clear with ENSO taken away. The new trend become a little steeper overall, but not massively so, about 0.144C/decade. Much less of a clear slow down after 1998 though...

 

Now, to try and include solar activity, using the annual sunspot count. In order to do this, I used the 11 year mean, got the long term average of that, and then calculated the annual anomalies. To get a simple temperature influence, I divided the anomaly by 150 and used the remaining values to represent the temperature contribution, which gave a maximum solar contribution of +0.269C in 1989, with a minimum contribution -0.098C in 2012, which, once again, seems like a reasonable range given how massively variable solar activity has been in recent decades. Below shows the estimated temperature contribution of solar activity.

 

 

And removed from the actual temperature values...

 

 

And the new temperature trends to 0.208C/decade.

 

 

 

I realise these are just rough estimates, any suggestions are welcome. Anything else to include, ways of improving the ENSO and solar contributions, etc?

 

I'll try do something with the eruptions another day too.

 

[VillagePlank]

It'd be interesting to see what effect the AMO has on the global signal ...

[knocker]

Organizing For Action Delivers Unicorn Trophies To 135 'Climate Deniers' In Congress

 

The awards feature mounted unicorns with engraved messages "honoring" recipients for "exceptional extremism and ignoring the overwhelming judgment of science."

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/13/organizing-for-action-climate-deniers_n_3750126.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003&ir=Green

Edited August 14, 2013 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

A grand solar minimum would barely make a dent in human-caused global warming

The Maunder Minimum was a period of very low solar activity between 1645 and 1715, and the Dalton Minimum was a period of low (but not as low as the Maunder Minimum) solar activity between 1790 and 1830.  Solar research suggests that we may have a similar period of low solar activity sometime this century.

 

 

Recent articles in the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten (translation available here) and in the Irish Times both ran headlines claiming that another grand solar minimum could potentially trigger an "ice age" or "mini ice age" this century. These articles actually refer to the Little Ice Age (LIA) – a period about 500 to 150 years ago when global surface temperatures were about 1°C colder than they are today. 

 

Thus a grand solar minimum would have to cause about 1°C cooling, plus it would have to offset the continued human-caused global warming between 1 and 5°C by 2100, depending on how our greenhouse gas emissions change over the next century.  Though in the Jyllands-Posten article, Henrik Svensmark (the main proponent of the galactic cosmic ray-climate hypothesis) was a bit more measured, suggesting,

 

"I can imagine that it will become 0.2°C colder.  I would be surprised if it became 1–2°C"

 

So these two articles are suggesting that a grand solar minimum could have a cooling effect of about 1 to 6°C, depending on how human greenhouse gas emissions change over the next century. Is it plausible that a grand solar minimum could make that happen?

 

The short answer is, 'No.'

 

The rest is here https://www.skepticalscience.com/grand-solar-minimum-barely-dent-AGW.html

 

 

It'd be interesting to see what effect the AMO has on the global signal ...

 

I might have a look later, though I'm not entirely convinced that the AMO isn't simply the result of warming, rather than a cause.

[songster]

We know that ENSO influences global temperature, so how about trying making an estimate of it's effect on global temperatures and trying to take that from the UAH record?

Hasn't this already been done?

Fawcett, 2007 (page 140 onwards)

http://www.amos.org.au/documents/item/82

Foster and Rahmsdorf, 2011

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022

Discussion at SkS and Tamino

http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=38

http://www.skepticalscience.com/foster-and-rahmstorf-measure-global-warming-signal.html

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/12/06/the-real-global-warming-signal/

[loafer]

Organizing For Action Delivers Unicorn Trophies To 135 'Climate Deniers' In Congress

 

The awards feature mounted unicorns with engraved messages "honoring" recipients for "exceptional extremism and ignoring the overwhelming judgment of science."

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/13/organizing-for-action-climate-deniers_n_3750126.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003&ir=Green

Is it any wonder there is antipathy between warmists and sceptics, when people employ stunts like this?

[Coast]

 

Extreme heatwaves are predicted as the new normal for British summers by 2040

 

Report calls for dramatic curbs in greenhouse gas emissions and warns of threat to human society

 

Global temperatures are climbing so rapidly that by 2040 Britain will spend up to a fifth of its summer months in an extreme heatwave, a new report warns.

 

Unless something dramatic is done to curb the volume of greenhouse gas emissions widely regarded as responsible for climate change, then conditions currently regarded as “extreme†will become the “new normal†in the UK and most of the world by the end of the Century, the findings say. Under this scenario, by the end of the century Spain and France are likely to be experiencing extreme temperatures during 80 per cent of their summer - across much of June, July and August - with the UK slightly lower at between 50 and 60 per cent, according to Dim Coumou, the lead author of the study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

 

For Britain, this would mean the July 2006 heatwave - the hottest month since records began in 1659 with an average temperature of 17.8C - would become normal. “The tropics, the Mediterranean and the Middle East will be worst affected, but in the UK you will definitely see a very strong increase in heat extremes as well,†Mr Coumou said, adding that this would be hugely damaging to agriculture and health. “Heat extremes can be very damaging to society and ecosystems, often causing heat related deaths, forest fires or losses to agricultural production. So an increase in frequency is likely to pose serious challenges to society,†Mr Coumous said.

 

The extreme heatwaves referred to in the report are known as “3-sigma†events. These are categorised by a hugely complex formula, which compares the average temperature over the course of a month with the average for that time and place for every year since the beginning of the 20th Century. Technically, the chance of experiencing a 3-sigma event is roughly one in a hundred. However, given the impact of human-emitted greenhouse gases in recent decades, such events have gone from being virtually unheard of in 1950s to becoming increasingly common in the past decade, Mr Coumou said.

 

“A good example of a recent three-sigma event is the 2010 heat wave in Russia. In the Moscow region the average temperature for the whole of July was around 7C warmer than normal,†said Mr Coumou. Other examples include the European heatwave of 2003, which was the hottest summer on record for the continent as a whole since at least 1540. Last month, while cooler than July 2006, may also qualify as a 3-sigma heatwave, said Mr Coumou, who cannot confirm this because he has not finished analysing the data.

 

The report predicts that by 2020, a tenth of the world's land surface will be on the receiving end of a 3-sigma heatwave at any one time during the summer months - a figure that will double to a fifth by 2040. At the moment, 5 per cent of the world's land surface is affected in this way, compared to just 1 per cent in the 1960s.

 

The changes between now and 2040 will happen regardless of the amount of carbon dioxide that is pumped into the atmosphere over that period because there is typically a ten to 20 year time lag between greenhouse gases being emitted and the resulting warming of the planet, Mr Coumous says. However, beyond 2040 the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere in the coming decades will have a huge bearing on the frequency and intensity of heatwaves as they exacerbate climate change, he says.

 

If carbon emissions keep on growing then by the end of the century, 85 per cent of the global land area will be subject to extreme heatwaves during the summer months, the research found. However, if emissions are severely curtailed, the frequency and severity of heatwaves would stable at 2040 levels, Mr Coumous said. This makes it extremely urgent to take decision action to curb climate change, he said. The Potsdam report comes shortly after research linking a warmer world with droughts with a substantial increase in violent conflict between both individuals and entire societies. A review of 61 detailed accounts of violence published in the journal Science concluded that personal disputes and wider civil conflicts increase significantly with significant changes to weather patterns, such as increases in temperature and lack of rain.

 

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/extreme-heatwaves-are-predicted-as-the-new-normal-for-british-summers-by-2040-8762336.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hasn't this already been done?

Fawcett, 2007 (page 140 onwards)

http://www.amos.org.au/documents/item/82

Foster and Rahmsdorf, 2011

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022

Discussion at SkS and Tamino

http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=38

http://www.skepticalscience.com/foster-and-rahmstorf-measure-global-warming-signal.html

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/12/06/the-real-global-warming-signal/

 

I realise that, but sometimes it can be useful to go through it step by step, with the input of others. A good learning exercise methinks.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Is it any wonder there is antipathy between warmists and sceptics, when people employ stunts like this?

 

Do you really think that unicorns are as bad that the accusations of academic fraud, data manipulation, hatred of the poor and developing nations, or comparisons with pedophiles and serial killers? All of which get hurled AGW researchers and those that accept the science.

[Methuselah]

Do you really think that unicorns are as bad that the accusations of academic fraud, data manipulation, hatred of the poor and developing nations, or comparisons with pedophiles and serial killers? All of which get hurled AGW researchers and those that accept the science.

And, after all, the unicorns were presented to deniers, and not to sceptics...

[Gray-Wolf]

The thing is members of congress are not 'scientists' in the field of climate studies and so should be informed by the wider body of science? To ingnore what the vast majority of those scientists are reporting, in favour a a few crackpots, show neglect and a wilful act of misrepresentation of the folk who put them into congress?

 

Scientists attacked and their works wrongly criticised impacts a person in a job they are trained for. Threatening their family/colleagues on the basis of their research does not compare with highlighting the shortcomings of a politician in my book?

[VillagePlank]

Do you really think that unicorns are as bad that the accusations of academic fraud, data manipulation, hatred of the poor and developing nations, or comparisons with pedophiles and serial killers? All of which get hurled AGW researchers and those that accept the science.

 

A 'fear' of science, whatever it might entail, seems to be a common underlying theme

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77577-get-out-of-jail-free/

[loafer]

Do you really think that unicorns are as bad that the accusations of academic fraud, data manipulation, hatred of the poor and developing nations, or comparisons with pedophiles and serial killers? All of which get hurled AGW researchers and those that accept the science.

 

No, I don't.

 

But they don't help in the slightest, either.

[Gray-Wolf]

 

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/extreme-heatwaves-are-predicted-as-the-new-normal-for-british-summers-by-2040-8762336.html

 

 

This is in line with the predictions from the early noughties with the current 'slowdown' in the rate of temp increases giving way to renewed rate of temp increase acceleration greater than we saw through the 80's and 90's?

 

Those predictions were made before the rapid albedo flip we have seen since the mid noughties across the Arctic and Greenland and before the renewed Methane spike we have seen since 08'.

 

Should Indo-China also clean up emmisions over the next ten years then any flip to warm drivers will recieve a lot of support from other positive feedbacks.

 

Will it prove enough to silence the climate misleaders? Not a chance!!!

[knocker]

Why Would Google Hold a Fundraiser for Climate Denier Senator Inhofe?

 

Last month at Google’s “How green is the internet?†summit, Eric Schmidt, the company’s Executive Chairman, discussed

 

Schmidt said in his talk that “you can hold back knowledge, but you cannot prevent it from spreading. You can lie about the effects of climate change, but eventually you’ll be seen as a liar. It may take 5 years or 10 years.†Well, in the case of Republican Senator Jim Inhofe, one of the leading figures of what President Obama called “the flat-earth society,†it might take even longer, thanks to some help from Google.

 

http://www.triplepundit.com/2013/07/surprised-google-holding-fundraiser-climate-denier-senator-inhofe/

Edited August 15, 2013 by knocker