Manmade Climate Change Discussion

[Methuselah]

Al Jazeera's Best-In-Class Coverage Of IPCC Climate Change Report

http://theenergycollective.com/josephromm/263521/al-jazeera-provides-best-class-tv-coverage-ipcc-climate-report?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20TheEnergyCollective-TwitterHandleFeed%20%28The%20Energy%20Collective%20-%20Twitter%20Handle%20Feed%29

 

How long before WUWT claims it's all down to 'trick photography'?

[knocker]

See how 150 years of sea level rise will affect US coastal cities in 30 seconds

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/150-years-in-30-seconds-sea-level-debt-sinking-us-cities-16338

[knocker]

Perception of climate change

Abstract

“Climate dice,†describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more “loaded†in the past 30 y, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951–1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth’s surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

 

 

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/07/30/1205276109.full.pdf+html

[knocker]

Alarmists? Surely not.

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-scientists-esld.html

[Methuselah]

Oh dear!

 

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/featured/prime-time/867432237001/al-gore-climate-hysteria/2623328888001

 

In space, no one can hear you laugh!

[Interitus]

The truth, whole truth and nothing but the truth.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10268455/Weather-could-be-controlled-using-lasers.html

 

Hmmm....

 

Another paper in the journal of Applied Physics Letters also indicated that ultraviolet lasers were far more efficient at producing condensation.

In March this year, Professor Wolf and his team also tested a high powered 100 terawatt laser in the field by firing it into the sky above a research centre in frascati, near Rome in Italy.

 

OK, 100 terawatts is about 200 times the power used in the USA at any instance in time - http://phys.org/news/2012-07-nif-history-terawatt-laser-shot.html

 

A description of excimer lasers as used in surgery from wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excimer_laser

The ultraviolet light from an excimer laser is well absorbed by biological matter and organic compounds. Rather than burning or cutting material, the excimer laser adds enough energy to disrupt the molecular bonds of the surface tissue, which effectively disintegrates into the air in a tightly controlled manner through ablation rather than burning.

 

The power of these is around 50mW....or 2000000000000000 (2e15) times less than Professor Wolf's. I wouldn't like to get in the way of that!

[knocker]

Climatifact: Seven Points in Support of Shakhova? Or not?

http://planet3.org/2013/08/27/climatifact-seven-points-in-support-of-shakhova-or-not/

[knocker]

A dramatic greening of the Arctic over the past 30 years

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/a-dramatic-greening-of-the-arctic-over-the-past-30-years

[4wd]

Why bring up a blog post from March? 

[knocker]

4wd, on 28 Aug 2013 - 20:01, said:

 

Why bring up a blog post from March? 

 

Why not. Is the study in Nature Climate Change invalid within 5 months? I noticed it because Professor Jason Box mentioned it today..

 

Do you have a problem with that?

 

Edited August 29, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Why bring up a blog post from March? 

 

Why not. Is the study in Nature Climate Change invalid within 5 months? I noticed it because Professor Jason Box mentioned it today..

 

Do you have a problem with that?

[knocker]

Pacific sounds warning on climate change

 

Wellington – The Marshall Islands has warned that the clock is ticking on climate change and the world needs to act urgently to stop low-lying Pacific nations disappearing beneath the waves.

 

Marshalls Foreign Minister Phillip H. Muller issued a plea for action as he prepares for next week's Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), which includes some of the country's most affected by the rising seas blamed on global warming.

 

http://www.news24.com/Green/News/Pacific-sounds-warning-on-climate-change-20130830#.UiBlnOREGoY.twitter

Edited August 30, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Judge denies National Review's Motion to Reconsider ruling in Michael Mann's defamation case

 

"The Court finds that there is sufficient evidence in the record to demonstrate that Plaintiff is likely to succeed on the merits," said a DC Superior Court judge in her latest procedural ruling in the defamation case of Michael Mann v. National Review, et al. "The evidence before the Court indicates the likelihood that 'actual malice' is present in the [National Review's] conduct." 

 

On August 30 the Court denied the Defendants' Motion for Reconsideration of the Court's July 19 order, which had affirmed Prof. Mann's right to proceed in his defamation lawsuit. The text of the August 30 Court Order is here in PDF.

 

http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2013/08/30/new-court-ruling-in-mann-v-national-review/

Edited August 30, 2013 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

Maybe folk will be 'nicer' about their questions once this case is sorted? Though he doesn't need the cash maybe Mr G. might also look for similar once precedent is set?

[Methuselah]

Judge denies National Review's Motion to Reconsider ruling in Michael Mann's defamation case

 

"The Court finds that there is sufficient evidence in the record to demonstrate that Plaintiff is likely to succeed on the merits," said a DC Superior Court judge in her latest procedural ruling in the defamation case of Michael Mann v. National Review, et al. "The evidence before the Court indicates the likelihood that 'actual malice' is present in the [National Review's] conduct." 

 

On August 30 the Court denied the Defendants' Motion for Reconsideration of the Court's July 19 order, which had affirmed Prof. Mann's right to proceed in his defamation lawsuit. The text of the August 30 Court Order is here in PDF.

 

http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2013/08/30/new-court-ruling-in-mann-v-national-review/

Let's hope it acts as a deterrent to those who (just for the sake of keeping their 'arguments' in the public's awareness) think twice before wasting millions of pounds/dollars on FOI requests and legal fees...

[VillagePlank]

A precise on the foolhardiness of using trends

 

http://robinmollgawks.wordpress.com/

Edited August 31, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Devonian]

A precise on the foolhardiness of using trends

 

http://robinmollgawks.wordpress.com/

I wont pretend to be a mathematician so my observations would be most climate graphs I see produced by scientists/organisations these days don't use linear trends - it's a technique mostly used by dodgy bloggers.

 

To my mind linear climate trends are not very useful - because the climate isn't linear. It follows that the climate isn't, or it's highly unlikely, going to do what the last three, and specifically the last, graphs show.

 

Who is Robin Mollgawk?

[Methuselah]

A precise on the foolhardiness of using trends

 

http://robinmollgawks.wordpress.com/

Looks like a curve with a varying slope to me...But, so long as the mathematical/statistical functions used, in obtaining/explaining it are clearly stated, what's the problem?

[Gray-Wolf]

I do enjoy spark's contributions....he asks questions of the 'questioners' which , in my book , is what sceptisism is all about. Oddly there seems more interest in his 'drop in's' on this thread than on the sceptics thread........and what do you call an assassin who accuses assassins anyway......

[VillagePlank]

I wont pretend to be a mathematician so my observations would be most climate graphs I see produced by scientists/organisations these days don't use linear trends - it's a technique mostly used by dodgy bloggers.

 

To my mind linear climate trends are not very useful - because the climate isn't linear. It follows that the climate isn't, or it's highly unlikely, going to do what the last three, and specifically the last, graphs show.

 

I think that's the point, Dev: excessive (mis)use of statistics is rapant and ripe throughout the blogosphere from both sides of the debate. Generally, LLS is used to shove some point up someone else's @rse with little thought to what is actually going on. You are spot on: you'd never catch, for instance, the Hadley Centre slapping a linear trend on their HadCru series, yet it is routinely 'done' with impunity nearly everywhere else. The sceptic side of the debate, as the blog mentions, is the worst for it: some of the charts I've seen are reprehensible. Sometimes, I loathe the fact that spreadsheets, with their endless statistical functions even exist.

I do enjoy spark's contributions....he asks questions of the 'questioners' which , in my book , is what sceptisism is all about. Oddly there seems more interest in his 'drop in's' on this thread than on the sceptics thread........and what do you call an assassin who accuses assassins anyway......

 

I don't know how to take this; I am just trying, rather pathetically at times, to learn, move forward. I don't think I am an idiot (I guess the jury is out on that one), but, nevertheless, I am trying to make myself as less idiotic as I can. Like all of us: it's the endless life quest of searching for the truth.

Edited September 1, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Interitus]

A precise on the foolhardiness of using trends

 

http://robinmollgawks.wordpress.com/

 

The problem with this example is the use of random numbers. Whilst it correctly points out that the trend over a long time series would be zero though over shorter periods it could be perfectly monotonic i.e. consistently increasing or decreasing and thus suggestive of a trend, the concept of trends are meaningless for extrapolation because true random systems cannot be predicted.

However climate though chaotic is not random but deterministic whereby inputs and physical processes give rise to the future state hence are theoretically predictable and trends may correctly depict this. The function used whether linear least squares or some higher order polynomial is not particularly important.

Where there are unknowns or imprecision in calculations which give rise to a pseudo-random unexplained variations we use stochastic processes and probability to give error bounds.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/sep/03/global-warming-pacific-ocean-puzzle-piece?

 

Couple this with Australia's hottest year and N.Z.'s record warm winter and you might begin to wonder whether the 'decadal' cooling in the Pacific has run it's course?

 

We will of course find out over the next few months whether our winter will also be back to those of the 80's/90's but with solar cycle 24 drawing to a close it would be a good time to look again at how the solar cycle impacts N.hemisphere 'blocking' and temps? 

 

Whilst most here accept the impacts of solar on climate the 'weighting' that some folk give it is ,IMHO, disproportionate and so a resumption in our warming whilst under a strong ( maunder min like) negative solar forcing would lay this to rest and focus on the major issues of warming by man's hands.

 

Those folk would also then need to embrace how much more warming is already in the system no matter what steps we take to limit outputs and that a good proportion of that was placed into the system over the years that they filibustered the public by their opotunistic manipulation of natural climate signals........well done guys.......not!

[snowking]

GW, as posted elsewhere previously, the PDO, as with any cycle of such range, will go in peaks and troughs (just as it is claimed the global temperatures do). Even during notable negative periods through the 20th century we would still occasionally see index values returning briefly to positive territory.

 

The most recent values are available here:

 

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

And just for ease of reading, here are the values from so far this year:

 

2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78 -1.25

 

 

Claims of us exiting the overall negative PDO phase are misleading...just as it would be misleading for me to suggest that the slight stalling of global temperature rise in recent years means that global warming has ended. I am always up for having a fair and factual debate, and I realise that some in the no-global-warming camp are guilty of not following through with this, but surely this has to work both ways too?

 

Kind Regards

SK

[Interitus]

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/sep/03/global-warming-pacific-ocean-puzzle-piece?

 

Couple this with Australia's hottest year and N.Z.'s record warm winter and you might begin to wonder whether the 'decadal' cooling in the Pacific has run it's course?

 

We will of course find out over the next few months whether our winter will also be back to those of the 80's/90's but with solar cycle 24 drawing to a close it would be a good time to look again at how the solar cycle impacts N.hemisphere 'blocking' and temps? 

 

Whilst most here accept the impacts of solar on climate the 'weighting' that some folk give it is ,IMHO, disproportionate and so a resumption in our warming whilst under a strong ( maunder min like) negative solar forcing would lay this to rest and focus on the major issues of warming by man's hands.

 

Those folk would also then need to embrace how much more warming is already in the system no matter what steps we take to limit outputs and that a good proportion of that was placed into the system over the years that they filibustered the public by their opotunistic manipulation of natural climate signals........well done guys.......not!

 

We are only halfway through cycle 24, plus there are lag times between the solar irradiation and the effect on temperature.

That said however, a popular study among supporters of solar forcing predicts temperatures based on length of previous solar cycle and suggested that temperatures for Svalbard should average -7.8°C in this cycle (range -6.0 to -9.6) down from -4.3°C in the last cycle. It's currently up to -3.39°C.

[knocker]

Slow-down in global surface temperature increases and flawed emphasis on land surface temperatures, at expense of ocean temperatures, explored in ‘This is Not Cool’ video. They call it ‘global’ warming for a reason.

 

They don’t call it “land-surface warming,†and they don’t call it “oceans-only warming.â€

 

It’s called “global warming†for a reason, and one of the principal reasons is that climate change takes into account not only the approximately 29 percent of the Earth’s surface that consists of land, our continents, but also the 71 percent comprised of oceans.

 

In this monthâ€s “This is Not Cool†video debriefing, independent videographer and climate analyst Peter Sinclair, of Midland, MI, presents and interviews an all-star cast of climate scientists helping tell what one — Ben Santer of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory — describes as “an internally physically consistent story†based on a wide body of scientific evidence on climate change.

 

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/yale-forum-global-warming-includes-oceans-too.html