Manmade Climate Change Discussion

[Gray-Wolf]

I would suggest that sustainable energy and foodstuffs, environmental prudence and respect, as well as concerns over population growth are issues of higher priority than fixed assumptions over man made climate theory. I rather see it the other way round that questioning these assumptions about changes in climate, and assessing all possible drivers instead, is critical to future generations welfare and survival instead of taking it as a given and making a swathe of increasingly grave predictions decades ahead accordingly.

 

 

But this was my point. tell me where you see humanity addressing , in a meaningful way, any of the issues that we know are fast approaching.

 

Instead it appears, to me at least, that we live in the 'now' and pay little heed to the challenges we need face in our own lives.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

GW, until there is a drastic change in the global economic system short termism will continue to prevail. There is absolutely no chance of a measured and considered response to any possible future threats facing mankind as long as the accepted mantra is one of perpetual growth. Any system where a company making a $5bn profit the year after posting a $5.5bn profit is considered to be failing, or where an investment banker earns 100 times more than a nurse or a teacher, cannot address long term global problems in any coherent way. It's about core values - when those are wrong then everything that stems from them will be wrong as well.

[Tamara]

I admit I initially forgot I should have remembered that there is no half way house in these sections

 

Ciao - I will leave you boys to it 

[SomeLikeItHot]

Or (the term does get a tad stretched) just the simple, blind refusal to accept the very possibility, of something. I don't see it as an 'insult' - more of a philosophical position...When someone posits a device which contravenes the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics, I become a denier...

 

If only the world's politicians/environmentalists had emphasized the fact that all fossil fuels are finite (and are thus running-out) instead of man-made Climate Change, who knows what they might have achieved? 

 

I disagree with the last point.

 

The supplies might be finite, but also so very large. The issue is that if the assumed climate sensitivity to CO2 is correct we have far too much in the way of fossil fuels. The potential amounts of coal etc available are vast. Some estimates have coal at 150 years of proven supply at current usage.  Alternative fuels sources like tar sand and shale push out the fossil fuel supplies massively. Traditional crude oil is the only source that is likely to run out in the conceivable future.

[knocker]

Climate science: Rising tide

 

Researchers struggle to project how fast, how high and how far the oceans will rise.

 

http://www.nature.com/news/climate-science-rising-tide-1.13749?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20130919

Edited September 20, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

The Known Knowns of Climate Change

[knocker]

Greenland get warmer ,NOT!Temperatures fall to -40c.Time and time again we have been told that nowhere is warming faster than the ArcticGreenland

 

 

Actually I thought it was the Antarctic Peninsula.

 

The Antarctic Peninsula is a rugged mountain chain generally more than 2000 m high, differing from most of Antarctica by having a summer melting season. Summer melt produces many isolated snow-free areas, which are habitats for biological communities of primitive plants, microbes and invertebrates, and breeding grounds for marine mammals and birds. During the last half-century, the Antarctic Peninsula has experienced dramatic warming at rates several times the global mean. This warming has been the focus of considerable recent research, and substantial progress is now being made in understanding the causes and profound impacts of this warming.

 

http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/bas_research/science/climate/antarctic_peninsula.php

[knocker]

Well as the Petermann is being discussed.

 

Petermann Ice Island Breaks while Plowing into the Bottom

[cyclonic happiness]

Indeed Tamara. As you imply: scepticism's fine (arguably essential), denialism serves little or no purpose whatsoever, scientifically...But, we all - each and every one of us - resorts to 'assumption'... 

But how many people on earth are scientists, percentage wise?   Are you really asking all of us to believe what such a small amount of people are telling us 'may' happen in the future?

 

I think you'll find it's not just 'global warming' that people don't believe any more. We are experiencing a revolution in free thinking atm, we no longer believe what is being fed to us by 'experts' 'governments' etc.

 

If you want to blame someone for not believing things, blame the lies of the past.

 

Personally, I still have no idea whatsoever about what is going to happen and you can show as many charts and statistics  as you like, but humans generally, aren't built to respond to charts and statistics, we are mainly instinct animals regardless of whether you think you're above your own biology or not. 

 

So, tell me....................' what should I believe?'

[Methuselah]

But how many people on earth are scientists, percentage wise?   Are you really asking all of us to believe what such a small amount of people are telling us 'may' happen in the future?

 

I think you'll find it's not just 'global warming' that people don't believe any more. We are experiencing a revolution in free thinking atm, we no longer believe what is being fed to us by 'experts' 'governments' etc.

 

If you want to blame someone for not believing things, blame the lies of the past.

 

Personally, I still have no idea whatsoever about what is going to happen and you can show as many charts and statistics  as you like, but humans generally, aren't built to respond to charts and statistics, we are mainly instinct animals regardless of whether you think you're above your own biology or not. 

 

So, tell me....................' what should I believe?'

Just be sceptical: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophical_skepticism

[knocker]

Published on Sep 18, 2013

We're running a bit late with this one: recorded last week before the big wind left Gareth powerless for six days (a bit like Glenn's PC), John Cook ruminates on the result of the Australian election, the boys marvel at the Mail's myth making about Arctic sea ice, and look forward to the release of the first part of the next IPCC report. And much, much more.

 

http://skepticalscience.com/climate-show-35.html#.Uj3i7ThBXY8.twitter

Edited September 21, 2013 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be released on the 27th of September 2013. With over 800 reviewers involved in its publication, the leaking of information was almost inevitable. Here is a sneak preview of what we can expect based on leaks so far:

Humans are responsible:

This won’t come as a shock to most people, but the IPCC have increased their level of certainty that the rise in global temperatures during the last half century is the result of anthropogenic processes. The confidence level has risen from 90% in 2007, to 95% now. 

Ice continues to melt:

Not only are ice caps and glaciers continuing to melt, but the rate at which they are melting is increasing. The Arctic is shrinking, while there was some recovery as compared to last year’s minimum, 2013 summer melt was the 6th largest on record. For the years 2002-2011, Greenland lost 6 times more ice than it did between 1992 and 2001. The Antarctic land ice has also seen an increasing rate in melting.

Speaking of the Antarctic, predictions for the continent are tricky:

Although the Antarctic Ice Sheet melted at a rate up to 5 times quicker during 2002-2011 as compared to the previous decade, sea ice is increasing. The 2007 report predicted a slight decrease in sea ice extent but this has proven to be inaccurate currently. However, recent studies suggest that the increase in sea ice can be attributed to changes in wind patterns- this probably won’t be reflected in the report. 

Temperatures will continue to rise:

The report is unequivocal on this issue. Warming is project to rise by about 1.5 degrees Celsius this century. The report acknowledges a slowdown in warming in the past 15 years, but reiterates there is no cooling trend. Temperatures have continued to rise and the last 30 years continue to be the warmest in several centuries.

For many, the report details the expected, but nevertheless, it will be an interesting read when it is released next week.

Edited September 22, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[cyclonic happiness]

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be released on the 27th of September 2013. With over 800 reviewers involved in its publication, the leaking of information was almost inevitable. Here is a sneak preview of what we can expect based on leaks so far:

Humans are responsible:

This won’t come as a shock to most people, but the IPCC have increased their level of certainty that the rise in global temperatures during the last half century is the result of anthropogenic processes. The confidence level has risen from 90% in 2007, to 95% now. 

Ice continues to melt:

Not only are ice caps and glaciers continuing to melt, but the rate at which they are melting is increasing. The Arctic is shrinking, while there was some recovery as compared to last year’s minimum, 2013 summer melt was the 6th largest on record. For the years 2002-2011, Greenland lost 6 times more ice than it did between 1992 and 2001. The Antarctic land ice has also seen an increasing rate in melting.

Speaking of the Antarctic, predictions for the continent are tricky:

Although the Antarctic Ice Sheet melted at a rate up to 5 times quicker during 2002-2011 as compared to the previous decade, sea ice is increasing. The 2007 report predicted a slight decrease in sea ice extent but this has proven to be inaccurate currently. However, recent studies suggest that the increase in sea ice can be attributed to changes in wind patterns- this probably won’t be reflected in the report. 

Temperatures will continue to rise:

The report is unequivocal on this issue. Warming is project to rise by about 1.5 degrees Celsius this century. The report acknowledges a slowdown in warming in the past 15 years, but reiterates there is no cooling trend. Temperatures have continued to rise and the last 30 years continue to be the warmest in several centuries.

For many, the report details the expected, but nevertheless, it will be an interesting read when it is released next week.

But it's so much better for the temperature to go up than down, what is the problem? People can move about. There'll be wars and famines, but that is better for the rest of the planet as we seriously need thinning out as a species.

Just get on with it and cross that bridge when you come to it.

 

I've already done my bit by not having children and never intending to.

[Coast]

 

'We are all to blame for climate change': Experts hope that the strengthening evidence will help to bolster the political will to act

 

Scientists are to tell the international community that they are at least 95 per cent sure that human activity is the main cause of climate change, according to one of the most authoritative reports on the subject.

 

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will say next week that certainty has increased from "very likely" to "extremely likely" that human activity has caused more than half of the observed temperature rise from 1951 to 2010, in a large part due to fossil fuels and deforestation.

 

The Fifth Assessment Report, known as AR5, is the IPCC's most definitive yet, and will run to thousands of pages. It will be released in several stages over the coming year after contributions from more than 800 scientists in 85 countries.

 

It is set to be finalised by a group of scientists before its release on 27 September, but draft pages show that in addition to temperature rises, changes are being observed throughout the climate system.

 

Findings from the IPCC are expected to show that the world's oceans are becoming warmer and more acidic, with sea levels rising. They also indicate that the potential for weather to become more extreme depends on which of a number of potential scenarios come to pass.

 

Sea levels have risen by 19cm in the past century, with the pace accelerating due to melting ice and sea water expanding as the world warms. They project that sea levels will rise between 26cm and 81cm by 2100, depending on the severity of the temperature increase – with projections showing temperatures are now "likely" to rise by 2–4C by 2100 unless emissions are cut.

 

The oceans have absorbed 93 per cent of the heat trapped in the climate system by greenhouse gases between 1971 and 2010, according to the draft report, with the top 75m warming by at least 0.1C a decade.

 

Leaks from the draft report have also caused controversy. The IPCC's findings show that the rate of warming has slowed down in the past 15 years with the rise dropping from 0.12C per decade between 1951 and 2012, to 0.05C between 1998 and 2012, which has been seized on by climate change sceptics. However, experts state that such a drop can be explained by natural variations in the climate and factors such as volcanic eruptions that spew ash into the air, which can dim sunlight and cool temperatures. Such a "hiatus" is not expected to last, they add.

 

The IPCC also cites the case of Antarctic sea ice, which has increased by 1.5 per cent per decade, with the reasons for this not fully understood. However, the report states with confidence that global ice sheets are losing mass and that the pace of melting is increasing.

 

The draft report has been welcomed by climate change activists, with the potential it brings to push governments into action, but some doubt that the political will exists to make the change. "The report confirms what we already know, rather than offering radical new insights," said Dr Doug Parr, the chief scientist of Greenpeace UK. "One would hope that the report will give impetus to the political process. The excuses for inaction are dying away and the IPCC report helps that process."

 

He added: "This report forms the bedrock of showing that there is still a problem and that things have got to change."

 

But Tom Burke, the founding director of E3G, a non-profit organisation that aims to accelerate the global move towards sustainable development, who is also currently an environmental policy adviser to the mining giant Rio Tinto, claimed that "political will has declined" in recent years over climate change.

 

"I think politicians are distracted by the economic crisis, but you also have trillions in investment in fossil fuels through the next decade and basically if you solve the issue you are going to take the value out of that," he said.

 

Mr Burke added that this "was not a criticism of the IPCC report" and that we would still see events "drive public opinion" on the issue of climate change as the 2015 deadline for a new deal – set by the UN Climate Change Conference in Doha last year – draws ever closer.

 

 

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/we-are-all-to-blame-for-climate-change-experts-hope-that-the-strengthening-evidence-will-help-to-bolster-the-political-will-to-act-8831785.html

[Polar Maritime]

Global warming pause 'central' to IPCC climate report

 

David Shukman explains why the report is likely to be divisive

Continue reading the main story Related Stories

[*]Five key questions facing the IPCC

[*]Warming extremes 'not as likely'

[*]Are ideas to cool the planet realistic?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) meets this week in Sweden to thresh out a critical report on global warming.

Scientists will underline, with greater certainty than ever, the role of human activities in rising temperatures.

But many governments are demanding a clearer explanation of the slowdown in temperature increases since 1998.

One participant told BBC News that this pause will be a "central piece" of the summary.

Researchers from all over the world work with the IPCC to pore over thousands of peer-reviewed studies and produce a summary representing the current state of climate science.

In the latest draft summary, seen by the BBC, the level of scientific certainty has increased.

The panel states that it is 95% certain that the "human influence on climate caused more than half the observed increase in global average surface temperatures from 1951-2010."

But since 2007, there has been a growing focus on the fact that global average temperatures haven't gone above the level recorded in 1998.

This slowdown, or hiatus as the IPCC refers to it, has been leapt upon by climate sceptics to argue that the scientific belief that emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere increases the temperature of the planet, is wrong.

Scientists have attempted to explain the pause in a number of ways, with many arguing that the Earth has continued to warm but that the heat has gone into oceans.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24173504

[Methuselah]

The report will certainly raise many an irrational response...Hold on, it already has. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The report will certainly raise many an irrational response...Hold on, it already has. 

 

Statements like "Snouts in trough" for something the scientists freely contribute to, springs to mind...

[Methuselah]

Statements like "Snouts in trough" for something the scientists freely contribute to, springs to mind...

When you realize just how small the 'trough' is, when compared to the tax-breaks and what-have-you readily available to the fossil-fuel lobby, it really does make you wonder?

[stewfox]

The report will certainly raise many an irrational response...Hold on, it already has. 

 

 

There has historically been a immediate and over the top direct cost with previously publications. (Green Taxes etc) We need another 10/20 years of data before we have too many knee jerk reactions that have a direct cost.

Edited September 23, 2013 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

There has historically been a immediate and over the top direct cost with previously publications. (Green Taxes etc) We need another 10/20 years of data then we can see the rhetoric for what it is.

 

What rhetoric is that?

[Methuselah]

What rhetoric is that?

That's shorthand for 'any science outwith the understanding of 'Lord' Monckton'? 

[stewfox]

What rhetoric is that?

 

Wrong word 'knee jerk reaction'.  Man made climate change and what we do, needs to be proportional.

[Methuselah]

But it's so much better for the temperature to go up than down, what is the problem? People can move about. There'll be wars and famines, but that is better for the rest of the planet as we seriously need thinning out as a species.

Just get on with it and cross that bridge when you come to it.

 

I've already done my bit by not having children and never intending to.

But, unfortunately, the animals and plants we rely on cannot...

[cyclonic happiness]

But, unfortunately, the animals and plants we rely on cannot...

It's happened before though, nobody weeps for all the dead of the last mass extinctions. 

Just nature doing it's thing.

[Methuselah]

It's happened before though, nobody weeps for all the dead of the last mass extinctions. 

Just nature doing it's thing.

It's not though...Some of it, no doubt; but not all of it...hence denialists' fondness for undiscovered undersea volcanoes.