Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Summer Sun]

The 00z ensemble still goes for some heat next week for a short time in the south

 

 

Notice the drop in rainfall as well from the 23rd onwards

 

The 06z run isn't a wash out by any means in fact its a fairly decent run especially the further south you are the wash out rain of 2012 remains a distant memory thankfully at this stage

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

 

Latest from Matt Hugo on twitter

 

Phase 4, 5, 6 and 7 don't bode (unsettled) well if the ECMWF model is to be believed with regards to the MJO

 

 

@FrenchScotPilot But... likely to move into phase 8 (strengthening?) after week 2 and that statistically shows high over W Europe (fingers Xed)

 

Agreed. Long way off but if it does behave in that way then early July *could* see marked improvement in conditions.

 

And Ian Fergusson (Fergie weather on here) has just tweeted this

 

UKMO favours slightly higher prob of drier/warmer later June based on MOGREPS, NCEP & JMA consensus. We'll see!

Edited June 14, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z operational run shows most of next week looking fairly dry, bright and rather warm with sunny spells across the southern half of the uk after the unsettled showery day in southern britain on monday, pressure rises a little with relatively slack settled conditions taking control but more unsettled and much cooler across northern britain, especially for n.ireland, western and northern scotland with low pressure to the northwest of the uk, later next week, the atlantic/azores anticyclone extends a ridge eastwards which briefly brings cooler and fresher air down across the uk from atlantic sourced air around the top of the building ridge, now, the azores high has a really good try at bringing a sustained spell of fine weather through FI, initially it struggles due to being thwarted by continuous low pressure pushing south and east from iceland but at least the south of the uk is under ridging and very gradually, the azores/atlantic anticyclone begins to have more and more success in bringing a very warm spell to southern and central britain but continuing rather more changeable across the far north, the 6z is generally encouraging.

Edited June 14, 2013 by Frosty039

[William of Walworth]

Quite surprised by that run from Frosty ... !

 

That would be quite a substantial turnup for the books. If it's anything more than just a fly-by-night outlier.Of course all that's deep FI, and other models will contradict, and there'll be many more twists and turns over coming days.

 

But those last 3 frames (Weds 26th to Fri 28th) would see a rather peachy Glastonbury period with good weather for more than just mid Somerset ...

 

<slaps self and applies caution cream!>

[Frosty.]

Quite surprised by that run from Frosty ... !

 

That would be quite a substantial turnup for the books. If it's anything more than just a fly-by-night outlier.Of course all that's deep FI, and other models will contradict, and there'll be many more twists and turns over coming days.

 

But those last 3 frames (Weds 26th to Fri 28th) would see a rather peachy Glastonbury period with good weather for more than just mid Somerset ...

 

<slaps self and applies caution cream!>

Indeed, it's surprisingly good, especially later in the run and considering what gavin posted above about the ian F tweet, the FI charts on the 6z could be made of a stronger substance than usual.

[Jezzer]

Thought you might like that run William, as you say plenty of twists and turns to come over the next week especially for those with an interest in weather for Wimbledon and Glasto.

 

As Gavin pointed out above, Ian Ferguson tweeted that the UKMO favours slightly higher prob of drier/warmer later June, would be interesting to see if this verified.

 

You read my mind Frosty  

Edited June 14, 2013 by Jezzer

[stainesbloke]

To my amateur weather mind it looks as though its GFS vs ECM/UKMO, would be nice to see GFS verify but wouldn't be surprised to see yet more troughing over the UK for the rest of June. Yawn!

[Summer Sun]

Interestingly the ensembles are becoming drier as we move towards the final week or so of the month

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows the Azores moving towards the UK on Tuesday but whether it gets any closer is another question

 

 

Low pressure is clear to see across Greenland show high pressure is getting every chance to build this summer its just a case of wait and see certainly more promising than last year

 

[Tony27]

there is reason to be positive today, the high is further north on the GFS 12z and the good weather with nice temps of 20c is at T96, on the downside in recent times nice weather was shown at T96 and i ended up with slate grey skies and temps of 13c

 

at 5 days out we see temps of 27c in the south what can possibly go wrong?

Edited June 14, 2013 by Tony27

[Summer Sun]

The Azores does indeed drift across the UK on Wednesday

 

 

GFS for the same time

 

Edited June 14, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Tony27]

gavin it doesn't matter if pressure is low over greenland, if there are strong heights over scandi then the lows may crash into us, but on todays runs that dosen't happen thankfully, i hope the lows don't get corrected further south as is often the case

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO looks pretty solid for a UK perspective, nothing spectacular but would bring fine and pleasant conditions with temperatures in the low twenties widely.

GFS starts looking very good with a very warm easterly setting up but the downside is the potential for a lot of rain coming from that Biscay low as it drifts through the Dover Strait. Could be quite nasty. Of course the potential thundery activity is high.

Edited June 14, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Milhouse]

Not a bad UKMO at all, all things considered. The northwest would be prone to more unsettled weather but for the bulk of the country its looking settled and warm with a bit of a continental drift for southern England to raise temperatures there.

[Frosty.]

Things could become very interesting if we get that brief very warm, locally hot spell midweek in the south with a lot of heavy rain and embedded storms spreading north from the near continent. After the showery rain in the south on monday the Gfs 12z shows a lot of fine and warm weather for a while next week before that potential thundery breakdown except for the far northwest where atlantic fronts brush across, FI again looks promising for atlantic/azores ridging to build across the uk although northern britain still looks like being north of the ridging and more likely to be at the mercy of the atlantic, hopefully the azores high will stop being a stranger and eventually migrate across the uk to the east and bring the uk a real spell of hot weather.

Edited June 14, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

Very warm to locally hot conditions remain on for the south tonight

 

[NUT]

The consistency of the charts for something hot and (thundery maybe) for some down south next week has been astounding. Some of the cape in europe looks tremendous! Possibly somebody next week may well get pounded big style

[Tony27]

A better short term run from the ECM it is following the GFS, with the high having more of an influence, if the GFS is right it deserves credit the GFS does get things right, the ECM is way overrated 

Edited June 14, 2013 by Tony27

[Summer Sun]

A good start from ECM with pressure building for mid week

 

 

After this though it does look like low pressure will make a return though it does remain rather warm and possibly humid in the SE

 

 

Beyond this who knows I have a feeling high pressure will be close by with the south seeing the best of the drier sunnier weather

 

EDIT

 

t168 does indeed show high pressure close by to the south

 

Edited June 14, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Latter stages of ECM show low pressure returning with the Azores high parked up in the Atlantic not helping us much other than stopping the Atlantic low pressure train

 

Edited June 14, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Tony27]

well i was feeling positive after seeing the charts up to T120, i went to do the washing up came back and saw the rest of the run go swiftly downhill, low pressure crashes into us and we get yet more cool north westerly winds

[Frosty.]

Good to see the brief but significant warm up for the south next week is still intact, along with the thundery trough just after midweek, this Ecm run is very similar to the Gfs 12z next week with a showery day in the south on monday followed by a few very warm days with long sunny spells and then things go bang as all that continental heat associated with that trough spreads heavy and thundery rain into the south of the uk, northern britain again looks at the mercy of the atlantic after a fine and pleasant start to next week, things go downhill with atlantic fronts brushing across the far north and a cooler north atlantic airmass, eventually the 12z becomes cyclonic with a trough slap bang on top of the uk but the charts look worse than the actual conditions at the surface because it would be a mixture of sunshine and heavy showers with light variable winds, so storm enthusiasts may get lucky next week with thundery outbreaks and heavy showers later next week.

Edited June 14, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

Straw clutching at t240 but it could potentially lead to something more settled if everything fell into place all would depend on where the low over us went to

 

[Frosty.]

Straw clutching at t240 but it could potentially lead to something more settled if everything fell into place all would depend on where the low over us went to

 

Yes it looks like that filling trough would drift away with ridging from the azores/atlantic anticyclone following in, similar to what the gfs has been showing for a while now. I wish that constant conveyor belt of low pressure near greenland/iceland would sod off and give our summer a chance to take off.

Edited June 14, 2013 by Frosty039

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday June 14th 2013.All models are still very undecided on events beyond Sunday. In the mean time they are all agreed upon the current Low pressure moving across the UK tonight and tomorrow with rain followed by showers for the first half of the weekend in fresh to strong and squally WSW winds.GFS then shows the Low approaching the SW on Sunday with rain here before it retreats SE over Europe as well as it filling early next week. The weather would probably become drier with just the odd shower over Britain in a light NW breeze so not overly warm. Later in the week thundery rain moves NE over South and SE England with the dry weather elsewhere also becoming eroded from Low pressure moving in off the Atlantic by the weekend. So once the thundery rain leaves the SE Atlantic based rain moves in across the UK from the West on Saturday. FI then shows winds flowing down from the NW for the most parts and while there would only relatively small amounts of rain mostly in the North the weather will stay rather cloudy at times with spells of sun at times. Temperatures would be close to normal but feeling warm in any sun in the SE.The GFS Ensembles continue to show the SE benefitting from higher uppers early next week with the chance of thundery rain in places. Thereafter, the temperatures fall back to average levels for all with changeable conditions still the favoured option shown.The Jet Stream continues it's flow across the UK over the next few days before it troughs South over the UK early next week before reverting to a positions East over the UK later next week and the weekend.UKMO tonight shows a drier phase shortly after midweek under a ridge of High pressure before a return to troughs moving in off the Atlantic brings a return to bright spells and occasional rain late in the week.GEM tonight shows very little progress North of the Low on Sunday, affecting just the far South before a dry spell develops early next week with some pleasantly warm sunny spells for a time. However, as the week progresses the Low gains momentum and moves North across the UK with spells of rain and showers for all before a new Low moves in from the Atlantic at the end of the run maintaining the unsettled spell.NAVGEM too holds the Low more to the South with it's passage NE close to SE Britain through the middle of next week bringing some thundery showers across Southern and SE areas for a time midweek. The NW will see the best of the dry and bright conditions.ECM tonight likes the GFS method of carrying Low pressure across the SE through next week with a chance of some thundery rain for a time before the door is opened to the Atlantic again with Low pressure moving in from the West with rain at times along with a blustery and cool West wind.In Summary there is still indecision about Sunday's Low pressure let alone further out and small differences in the eventual positioning of that Low pressure can have stark implications for events later on next week so in essence the exact details of next week's events can be taken quite lightly at the moment and open to significant change. However, having said all that the broad scale pattern looks less likely to change and that means a continuation of unexciting weather with occasional rain mixed with dry weather with some sunshine and temperatures little better than normal for the next 10-14 days.

[Dunmurry Hedgehog]

Yes it looks like that filling trough would drift away with ridging from the azores/atlantic anticyclone following in, similar to what the gfs has been showing for a while now.

Edited June 14, 2013 by Dunmurry Hedgehog