Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[WheresTheSnow]

I wish I hadnt looked at the 18Z now because I think I'll be dissapointed when I wake up. I'd love a bit of 30C on Wednesday - I guess it's only three days away but we'll see if the 00 & 06Z agree later.

[bluearmy]

Could be an uncomfortable sleep tues night se uk. the price of moving the pattern nw could well be that the n scandi height rise thefeafter is far enough west to mean the trough gets stuck over us with no escape ne for its energy.

[Frosty.]

Phew what a scorcher, the Gfs 00z brings a hot thundery plume northwards with temperatures reaching 30-31c 87f in the southeast and widely 26-28c, then things go bang with a mass of torrential rain and embedded thunderstorms rumbling northwards across the uk, midweek could be very lively but there would be concerns about flash flooding if this verifies.

[A.J]

not awake enough yet to post charts etc etc, but needless to say the heat is still on especially for southern parts of the UK for tues/wed with shallow LP drifting slowly northwards through France  warm, moist air to be advected north/north westwards. dew points in the mid to high 60's with lots of energy and lift available providing some ingredients for the potential for some lively thunderstorms, a chance of elevated imports from France for the SE quadrant as well as beefy home grown storms for other parts of the UK. both GFS & ECM have this pattern at the T72-96 juncture, and indeed the GFS has been hinting at this scenario for several days now, so the likelyhood of verifying is good IMHO

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

just looked  deep into fantasy world  one  word  rubbish

[Supacell]

not awake enough yet to post charts etc etc, but needless to say the heat is still on especially for southern parts of the UK for tues/wed with shallow LP drifting slowly northwards through France  warm, moist air to be advected north/north westwards. dew points in the mid to high 60's with lots of energy and lift available providing some ingredients for the potential for some lively thunderstorms, a chance of elevated imports from France for the SE quadrant as well as beefy home grown storms for other parts of the UK. both GFS & ECM have this pattern at the T72-96 juncture, and indeed the GFS has been hinting at this scenario for several days now, so the likelyhood of verifying is good IMHO

 

Both GFS & ECM and now the NAVGEM model too, although the heat does not get as far north. I would expect to see the met office update their forecast later and the countryfile weather for the week ahead could be an interesting watch.

 

 

Not looking good after that though, but what follows is FI so could still change for the better. For instance today was set to be wet for most of England, now I am forecasted a dry sunny, albeit cool day, but 18c will feel pleasant in the strong June sun.

[Dan the Man]

Showing 36C for Amsterdam - that must be close to their record? Edit: the record is 36.8C.

 

I'll believe 32C in London when I see it! It'll probably get scaled down, as per usual, however its still looking good for a warm>hot week ahead.

Edited June 16, 2013 by Dan the Man

[Gibby]

Hi everyone. Here is the Sunday morning look at the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday June 16th 2013 and what they may mean for us down on the surface over the coming couple of weeks.All models seem to be coming closer to some sort of agreement on the weather over the UK in the coming days. It looks like Southernmost areas will be cloudier than elsewhere and rather cool today with occasional rain in places. The North will be brighter and drier with just scattered showers. This pattern looks like seeing us through tomorrow too before all areas become drier and a little warmer especially in the SE midweek. Later in the week the Low to the South moves steadily NE with outbreaks of thundery rain for some parts of England and Wales by Thursday, especially towards the SE. Late in the week the Low moves away to the NE and fresher air makes it's way across all areas with some sunny intervals in places.GFS then shows Low pressure moving SE over the UK at the weekend with an unsettled and cool period for most with rain and showers for all at times. Through FI today the UK is covered by a large cool pool of unstable air and from this one can only deduce there would be heavy showers and outbreaks of rain scattered about in all areas with temperatures continuing to be held down to near average levels for all. It would though feel reasonably warm in the bright spells between the showers though.The GFS Ensembles are very supportive of a sharp rise in uppers over the coming days before they fall back later in the week. It is though the only light in a very long and dark tunnel from the ensembles this morning as once passed there is unanimous support for average temperatures and rain at times for all areas. The high uppers in the middle of the week will be mostly felt under humid and rather cloudy conditions with the prospect of thundery rain diluting the impact of these at the surface.The Jet Stream continues to meander North and South in an undulating fashion close to the UK over the coming week. In a week's time it is sliding slowly SE to the West of the UK over the Bay of Biscay.UKMO this morning shows the risk of thundery rain soon after midweek in the SE with the extent NW of this unclear. A ridge then moves in behind the clearance of this rain to end the week with a dry and bright period for all before the weekend looks like becoming unsettled again from the NW as low pressure slips SE towards Scotland.GEM shows a chance of thundery rain over a larger part of Southern Britain in a very humid midweek period down here while following the clearance on Thursday and Friday cooler fresher Atlantic air floods back over all areas with rain or showers in association with Low pressure over the North, not unlike GFS this morning.NAVGEM continues to programme Low pressure close to the SE for quite a while later this week with the threat of thundery rain always present with very warm air flirting with the SE for a time. Eventually though this pattern is shown to give way to a return of Atlantic West and North-Westerlies with Low pressure close by returning the risk of rain and showers for many.ECM today shows a more coherent area of thundery Low pressure across South and SE Britain soon after midweek with some very humid and warm air in tow. Towards the end of the week this moves away NE with cooler and fresher conditions returning with showers or outbreaks of rain at times in cool and fresh conditions. Late in the run there is a glimmer of hope with the Azores ridge desperately trying to link with a Northern Scandinavian High at Day 10 to stem the flow down from the NW but it's interaction with Low pressure over Europe may deny it's SE movement over the following period outside of the runs term.In Summary it's another mish-mash of output this morning which promises very little UK wide settled conditions in the next 10-14 days. Instead we have to clutch at what straws there are and the first of these is through the middle of this week when a spell of warm and humid air affects parts of the South and East terminated by a thundery breakdown by Thursday. Thereafter we have to look right out to Day 10 of ECM which does offer some hope as the Azores high does look orientated better to settle things down further out providing it's associated ridge is allowed to drift SE into the UK in the subsequent days. Overall though it's more of the same with plenty of days with very average conditions with neither too wet or dry weather with some bright sunny breaks between the showers.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

just looked  deep into fantasy world  one  word  rubbish

 

 

Thank goodness it will not verify then :-)

[AWD]

Nice to see a broadly similiar theme across the model output for a brief spell of very warm weather across much of England this coming week. You can see on the updated FAX charts below the 564DAM making into southern England;

The hot, humid air caught up in a small trough so how much sunshine there would be I don't know. Could be an interesting period for storm enthusiasts however. All 3 models show high 850hpa temps entering the south and east;

The GFS showing some high DP values;

This equating to some high, very warm 2m temperatures;

And obviously comes the risk of thunderstorm activity;

However, we will need to see nearer the time what the trigger and inversion levels are like as it's not as easy as seeing hot air and low pressure. Lots more to it than that, which is best explained in the convection thread.

All this supported well by the GEFS;

So hopefully things will get lively sometime this week for England especially;

After this, it looks like a case of "back to normal".

[Frosty.]

Looking further ahead, the Ecm 00z at T+240 hours is very encouraging with the azores/atlantic anticyclone building a ridge a long way north and the high would then topple across the whole of the uk, however, the gfs 00z and gem 00z look horrible in the same timeframe, the gfs 00z has probably one of the worst FI set of charts for late June so hopefully the ecm is on to something.

[mushymanrob]

wow!... dont you just love watching models when they swap and change like this? looks like we are in for some heat for a few days before it all goes out with some very heavy rain and thunderstorms.

 

pity its looking like a blip and not the start of something lengthier and summery.

 

after that the anomaly charts suggest something cooler and northwesterly, this supports the gfs 00z for the time period. so unfortunately the gfs's version into fi looks more likely to be nearer the mark.

Edited June 16, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Summer Sun]

2 successive runs GFS has produced temperatures at or close to 30c for the London area of Wednesday!

 

 

With some torrential rain possibly embedded in with this we could see flashing flooding and thunderstorms quite easily

 

 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

wow!... dont you just love watching models when they swap and change like this? looks like we are in for some heat for a few days before it all goes out with some very heavy rain and thunderstorms.

 

pity its looking like a blip and not the start of something lengthier and summery.

 

after that the anomaly charts suggest something cooler and northwesterly, this supports the gfs 00z for the time period. so unfortunately the gfs's version into fi looks more likely to be nearer the mark.

Good post rob but I hope you are wrong about FI, the ecm is what most of us are hoping for after a period of trough domination.

[Summer Sun]

Looking the the ECM ensemble and the best we get really is sunshine and showers

 

[mushymanrob]

Good post rob but I hope you are wrong about FI, the ecm is what most of us are hoping for after a period of trough domination.

 

i hope im wrong not only about fi but my hunch about the whole of summer! :lol:

 

trouble is, the anomaly charts have a habit of being pretty close to the mark, as john holmes has been pointing out for some time now. i, and im sure others, have taken note of his observations and they do seem to be correct. unfortunately those charts are not boding well, plus the mjo is not looking to be favourable for anything nice.

[Jonathan Lang]

Looking at the GEFS ensembles there is a clear upwards trend in air pressure until the 27th June then it dips a bit. The GFS operational is in the lower end of it's group showing it's June 2012 style FI to be the worst case scinario with little support. Therefore it is unlikely.

 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Jonathan Lang

[Lincs Observation]

Morning all

I dont normally post in here but having looked at the models this morning i has become apparent how frustrating watching the jet and endless troughs has become, IMO if that jet shifts to the North for a few weeks all that warm upper air building way to our south would flood in making what could be potentially the best summer for years.

Its like looking through a shop window at something you really want only to realise you could never afford it, However when its warm its nice and the bits in between are keeping my grass green and my flowers bright.

LO

[JK1]

BBC & Met office weather forecast are not showing the high temps like shown on GFS temp map, shame

Edited June 16, 2013 by JK1

[Lincs Observation]

This current Sat image pretty much shows in great detail on what i was alluding to earlier in relation to the clear boundary of warmth and the constant low pressures/Troughs and the position of the jet.

Just take a look in real time at how close we would be to a fab summer

http://www.sat24.com/?ir=true&co=true&li=false

LO

Edited June 16, 2013 by Lincs Observation

[Geordiesnow]

As I said last night, I won't mind this warm blast coming aslong the trough responsible for the warmth does not threaten to stick around and the ECM does show that. The ideal set up would be a day or two of heat before it breaks down into a thundery break down and then some Atlantic based weather heads in, ideally with the form of an attempted ridge of an Azores high. 

 

Getting the detail right is quite uncertain some some summery weather is possible for the early part of next week so I have to disagree with Gibby's thoughts of we are clutching at straws for some fine and settled weather really. NW England and SW Scotland could once again see the best of the sunshine where as eastern areas are in risk of some low cloud once again unfortunately but as I say, the details are quite unclear imo so keep an eye on the models is the message, how far North and West will the warmth travel. 

[snowking]

Quick update from me

 

ECM op and control nowhere near as high as the temperature projection from GFS for Wednesday - current mean consensus would suggest around 25c at present. Wouldn't entirely rule out 30c being hit, but I would suggest its <10% risk. Its a similar story too from the ensemble means, with max values around 21-25c from both the ECM and the GFS as of 0z.

 

ECM ensemble mean, pictured for 1800 Wednesday, currently offers the best estimate: 

 

Currently actually the biggest story from this spell for me would be the huge thunderstorm potential. The highest resolution modelling I have access to is just beginning to come within range, and below is the projected CAPE out to 10am Wednesday:

 

 

Combined with LI values around -9k and K-Index of around 34-40, some very impressive storms could well come to pass if current projections prove accurate....and if you're really looking for some action, the values on the continent are off the scale, giving a significant risk currently of supercell activity.

 

SK

 

EDIT: Writing after a night of drinking seems to make the word "currently" appear a needless number of times. Edited!

Edited June 16, 2013 by snowking

[WheresTheSnow]

I like the look of the 06Z !

 

+10 Uppers start to move in by +30...

With some nice and warm temperatures on Tuesday, too.

As we go into Wednesday it gets warmer with most of Eastern, South Eastern and parts of SW England under +15c uppers!

Thursday also looks like a warm day, before temperatures returning back to normal. And I know it's only the 06Z which might not be too trustworthy but I enjoyed the run nevertheless! Hope to see some Thunderstorms along the way too this week!

Edited June 16, 2013 by WheresTheSnow

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z shows an even hotter spell midweek than the 00z showed, adding a degree or two to the maximum temperatures, it also remains very warm on thursday across southern and eastern england with an ongoing threat of storms, especially further east, on wednesday, this run shows isolated storms being sparked by the heat and humidity with a line of thundery rain rumbling northwards, impossible at this range to know where the biggest concentration of storms would be but it looks likely that there will be a thundery outbreak through the midweek period which could linger until later in the week but with temperatures closer to 21c by friday, but midweek the 6z shows 30c 86f in the south, you could add a degree or so to that, I hope somewhere in the south and east breaks through the 30c barrier in the next five days. Apart from the storms risk, there is also a lot of dry and fine weather indicated with long sunny spells throughout the uk in the week ahead, better news for the north & west too with no atlantic activity until next weekend.

[Bottesford]

NOT what I want to see! Couldn't make it up given what's coming this week (whilst I'll be either still at work or frantically working indoors getting things ready!)

 

Really come on weather I've been nice to you over years no play nice with me! arrreggggg