Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Frosty.]

The mini plume has a good chance of occuring IMO, it's been showing for several times already, would be a nice bonus to get some heat next week.

I had faith it would happen.

[Gibby]

Good morning everyone. Sorry about no report last night on this forum but had to commit to my Son and his families presence in view it was Father's Day. However, here is today's midnight report from the outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday June 17th 2013.All models show Low pressure to the South of the UK with an area of slack winds and a ridge of High pressure over Northern Britain. The low to the South loosens it's grip temporarily in the next 24 hours before reinvigorating into a thundery feature, moving NE close to SE Britain by Thursday and away into the North Sea by Friday. Weatherwise Northern and Central areas will see a lot of dry weather this week with sunny spells and light winds with average temperatures. Further South the conditions will be more complex with some dry weather here too but with very warm and moist air aloft scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible between now and Thursday, perhaps becoming more widespread for a time shortly after midweek. By Friday with the thundery Low out over the North Sea cooler and fresher conditions will spread across all areas perhaps with a dry and bright spell for many in light NW winds.GFS then shows an unsettled weekend with Low pressure feeding down over the UK with a spell of rain followed by showers with some sunny spells in between. Through FI the weather pattern remains very complex with no pressure systems having overall control of the UK weather. Instead a spell of very light winds will ensue. With cool uppers over the UK and slack pressure together with strong June sunshine the ingredients are right for large showers to develop inland during the daytime's which would likely be slow moving. Late in the run winds are shown to settle more Westerly with some dry and bright weather likely in the South at the end of the run.The GFS Ensembles remain as before with this weeks warm phase being replaced by cooler Atlantic winds and subsequent lower uppers bringing a mix of sunshine with rain at times for most with no definitive sign of any settled warm spell as yet.The Jet Stream shows the Easterly moving flow continuing across Britain throughout with a weak cut-off portion circulating to the South of the UK for several days in association with the thundery disturbance over the Continent.UKMO today shows a changeable weekend with rain at times, chiefly in the North while the South and SE in particular might not see much rain.GEM today shows the same as GFS with Low pressure sliding down from the NW over the UK and on into the North Sea through the weekend and start to the new week with a cool and showery regime continuing for some time before the flow backs Westerly with a new trough approaching Western Britain by Day 10.NAVGEM looks very unsettled this morning carrying the thundery rain influence further North than it's counterpart models making for a showery week which leads on to showery Westerly winds next weekend under fresher and cooler Atlantic conditions as a Low complex remains centred over Northern Britain.ECM finally also shows more extent of the thundery system midweek which consequently leads to less chance of a window of fine weather on Friday leading the UK straight into cooler and unsettled conditions with showers or rain at times as we move through the weekend and start to next week which continues to show very changeable conditions for all even at the termination of the run.In Summary today it's more of the same with Low pressure maintaining it's stranglehold on the UK weather with meaningful High pressure held far away from our shores. So in weather terms it means that following the warm, humid and potentially thundery period this week in the South the North will see the only guaranteed dry weather over the coming days and even here isolated showers could occur. Once we reach the exit point of the humid weather at the end of the week the Atlantic winds come back with a vengeance giving rise to another period of rain followed by cool showers with short dry interludes in between when it may feel warm in the sunshine. Overall though the output remains disappointing with little likelihood of any sustained and lengthy dry and warm weather for anywhere while this current synoptic pattern remains in place due to a Jet Stream that remains too far South over the UK instead of Iceland.

[JK1]

BBC & Met Office forecast are still not forecasting showing these really warm plume temps though

 

Edited June 17, 2013 by JK1

[Summer Sun]

 

BBC & Met Office forecast are still not forecasting showing these really warm plume temps though

 

 

 

GFS will probably downgrade the temperatures over the next day or so you watch............

[Summer Sun]

After a relatively dry and warm week Saturday see's rain and wind returning

 

[Gibby]

 

BBC & Met Office forecast are still not forecasting showing these really warm plume temps though

 

It's because they like me expect a lot of cloud due to such high humidities. I would say that 24-27C would be the range more typical but if the sun does break through for any length of time then yes 28-30C is possible.

 

[Gibby]

 

 

BBC & Met Office forecast are still not forecasting showing these really warm plume temps though

 

 

 

 

It's because they like me expect a lot of cloud due to such high humidities. I would say that 24-27C would be the range more typical but if the sun does break through for any length of time then yes 28-30C is possible.

[stainesbloke]

Yes, more Atlantic garbage this weekend onwards for the foreseeable. Vile.

Edited June 17, 2013 by stainesbloke

[Frosty.]

Yes, more Atlantic garbage this weekend onwards for the foreseeable. Vile.

It's not vile or garbage, it's typical uk summer weather.

[shedhead]

Yes, more Atlantic garbage this weekend onwards for the foreseeable. Vile.

There's plenty in the churchyard who would like to feel the rain on their face....as my dear old gran used to say.  Bit of context needed here me thinks!

 

Without question we are looking down the barrel of another lengthy unsettled period, with the hope given by GFS in the longer term certainly not being reflected by the current ECM output, which looks as mixed as ever. Think we need to get a few more runs under our belt however before dismissing the GFS completely, it's longer term pattern is not without at least some support within the ensemble suite, but in truth it's pressure rise still looks a long way from being nailed on too.

 

In the meantime tho...it's only weather.

Edited June 17, 2013 by shedhead

[stainesbloke]

It's not vile or garbage, it's typical uk summer weather.

Ok I should have been more specific. From next weekend onwards, the jet will continue to be displaced much further south than is usual for this time of year, resulting in cooler than average and cloudy conditions to prevail across the UK and NW Europe. Better?

[CongletonHeat]

It is vile or garbage, it's typical uk summer weather.

More realistic

[Frosty.]

Ok I should have been more specific. From next weekend onwards, the jet will continue to be displaced much further south than is usual for this time of year, resulting in cooler than average and cloudy conditions to prevail across the UK and NW Europe.Better?

Except there will also be spells of pleasantly warm sunshine between the showers and outbreaks of rain with the south & east likely to have the longer drier spells. 

 

That's better.

[Captain Shortwave]

The issue is yet again any ridging from the Azores is happening at day 6/7 onwards, then a few runs later another low is modelled in and flattens the Azores high maintaining the southerly tracking jetstream. The ECM run this morning is the perfect example where yesterday we had high pressure building in from day 8 onwards, now that's been ditched and replaced with another trough moving straight across the UK with weak signs of the Azores high ridging northwards at day 10.

Think it's the case of take the next couple of days and hope for some decent sunny spells to get a little bit of heat because after Thursday it might be a while until we get above average temperatures again.

[stainesbloke]

Except there will also be spells of pleasantly warm sunshine between the showers and outbreaks of rain with the south & east likely to have the longer drier spells. That's better.

Except there probably won't be much sunshine as per the last few weeks of a very similar pattern.

[DAVID SNOW]

Sorry for being a little ot,but i thought that so far this june sunshine levels were running above average?

[Frosty.]

Sorry for being a little ot,but i thought that so far this june sunshine levels were running above average?

That's what I thought too.

[stainesbloke]

That's what I thought too.

Have they? Maybe for some western areas, not sure for my location though I haven't looked at any data. But temperatures have definitely been lower than normal.

[Jimmy0127]

06z GFS a little more encouraging from where I'm sitting. The southern tracking jet seems to be wimping out and the energy over Canada seems to have a more Westerly component than we've seen of late...

 

Edited June 17, 2013 by Jimmy0127

[Bottesford]

I would argue 'vile' for the outlook when it hits your outdoor based wedding day!

So far models showing the frontal rain passing through in early hours of Sat clearing to sunshine & showers. This would be fine for our day - we're happy with dramatic skies, sunshine & odd shower. Its the manky frontal stuff we don't want!

Of course, knowing how awful our weather frequently is especially in summer & especially in Buxton we were prepared with wellies/umbrellas to deal with showers. Constant frontal rain would make it very cramped & unpleasant in the marquee in the afternoon part though so fingers crossed it stays away from the afternoon/early evening period.

[Buzzit]

NAE / Met seems to be undercooking actual temps as at 12pm vs their latest output...

[Frosty.]

Now this is more like it from the Gfs 06z, instead of a constant conveyor belt of atlantic depressions or troughs stuck limpet like on top of the uk, the 6z builds and rebuilds high pressure into the uk throughout most of FI with a good deal of dry, sunny and warm weather for all areas, the north of the uk doing well this week for dry weather and sunshine with pleasant warmth but becoming very warm and humid for england & wales for 2 or 3 days, especially warm in the southeast with temperatures nudging into the low 80's F with mid to upper 70's further north and west for a time, there will also be an increasing amount of thundery downpours for the very humid areas across southeastern britain but still with some sunshine, becoming cooler and more unsettled from the west next weekend with a cool and showery start to next week but then the atlantic/azores anticyclone pushes across the uk.

[syed2878]

as long as most of the thunderstorms stays away i dont mind it.

[Gibby]

I think the Met have copied my report this morning. 

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Jun 2013 to Monday 1 Jul 2013:

Through Saturday, a band of rain across the west will spread east, clearing the far south east overnight. Heavy rain is possible at first but should turn lighter through the day. Brighter and showery weather following the rainband in the north and west on Saturday will spread to all areas on Sunday. It will turn windier through the weekend, particularly in the north and west, with temperatures close to or just below average. Thereafter, conditions look set to remain unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain but also some drier and clearer interludes. The north and west is likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent rain whilst the south and east enjoys the best of the drier and brighter spells. Temperatures remaining near or just below normal.

UK Outlook for Monday 1 Jul 2013 to Monday 15 Jul 2013:

Indications are that the weather is likely to stay rather changeable into the first part of July, with westerly winds allowing weather systems to push in from the Atlantic, bringing spells of rain at times. Conditions will generally be more unsettled towards the northwest of the UK, with the best of the drier and brighter periods in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to be a little below average for the time of year, especially in western parts, whereas rainfall amounts look to be close to average in most places.

Issued at: 0400 on Mon 17 Jun 2013

[Frosty.]

I think the Met have copied my report this morning. 

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Jun 2013 to Monday 1 Jul 2013:

Through Saturday, a band of rain across the west will spread east, clearing the far south east overnight. Heavy rain is possible at first but should turn lighter through the day. Brighter and showery weather following the rainband in the north and west on Saturday will spread to all areas on Sunday. It will turn windier through the weekend, particularly in the north and west, with temperatures close to or just below average. Thereafter, conditions look set to remain unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain but also some drier and clearer interludes. The north and west is likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent rain whilst the south and east enjoys the best of the drier and brighter spells. Temperatures remaining near or just below normal.

UK Outlook for Monday 1 Jul 2013 to Monday 15 Jul 2013:

Indications are that the weather is likely to stay rather changeable into the first part of July, with westerly winds allowing weather systems to push in from the Atlantic, bringing spells of rain at times. Conditions will generally be more unsettled towards the northwest of the UK, with the best of the drier and brighter periods in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to be a little below average for the time of year, especially in western parts, whereas rainfall amounts look to be close to average in most places.

Issued at: 0400 on Mon 17 Jun 2013

Normal uk summer weather in other words.