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Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Downpour Community Regular

Downpour

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
Posted

A horror show indeed! Not in a good way either. Still time for things to change. Yes, get worse!!! LOL

Does that LOL run have any support? Highly unlikely that that trough stays rooted to the spot for five days. But a dire run nevertheless. Hopefully it will disappear on the 18z. 

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Tony27 Aficionado

Tony27

Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

GFS is better than UKMO imo,  on the UKMO it looks like after this weekends horrific weather, another low is waiting in the wings next week after a brief ridge of high pressure, rinse and repeat

Edited by Tony27
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Tony27 Aficionado

Tony27

Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

Does that LOL run have any support? Highly unlikely that that trough stays rooted to the spot for five days. But a dire run nevertheless. Hopefully it will disappear on the 18z. 

the trough can stay over us for days if there is high pressure all around it, the trough has no where to go, it seems like high pressure can build almost anywhere for long periods bar us

Edited by Tony27
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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

well we will see if we get any thunderstorms or thundery showers, a lot of the time it just stay cloudy and dry and the breakdown is tame, i know we always want to look for extreme weather but 95% of the time the models over do thunderstorms and heat a bit like they over do cold and snow

i can't understand how people can defend these models time and time again, i have no problem with long range forecasting if its wrong as that is pure guesswork, but short term yes when it is consistently wrong like it has been for the past few weeks for my location, if i do get to 26c and see some thundery showers tomorrow or thursday then i will give them credit

This is the NAE forecast temps for tomorrow afternoon, not like GFS, GFS does tend to overdo so use a higher res model.

post-16336-0-05675900-1371575398_thumb.g

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

The best crumb of comfort I can see is that I've seldom known the models get it right...And, if the Met says that there 'no clear signals', I guess that restraint is the safest way to contain expectations?

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Tony27 Aficionado

Tony27

Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
Posted

This is the NAE forecast temps for tomorrow afternoon, not like GFS, GFS does tend to overdo so use a higher res model.

wow 22c, i suppose we should be grateful for those temps nowadays, i hope the GFS is right as that is saying 26c 27c but i know it overcooks temps it has fooled us into thinking we were going to have a mini heatwave

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

Does that LOL run have any support? Highly unlikely that that trough stays rooted to the spot for five days. But a dire run nevertheless. Hopefully it will disappear on the 18z.

Yes, check 12Z GFS from 28 June, trough over UK for 5 days. Something that seems to be becoming quite common since 2007. Strange how low pressure steams in towards us across the Atlantic at light speed then just.....halts completely over the UK, taking days to fill, giving us wind, cloud etc, before being replaced by another trough. Very depressing! I'm praying it changes!
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The best crumb of comfort I can see is that I've seldom known the models get it right...And, if the Met says that there 'no clear signals', I guess that restraint is the safest way to contain expectations?

Exactly, it means there is an equal chance of warm and settled as cool and unsettled, a normal british summer in other words.

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

The best crumb of comfort I can see is that I've seldom known the models get it right...And, if the Met says that there 'no clear signals', I guess that restraint is the safest way to contain expectations?

Of course, it is best to have no expectations and therefore no disappointment. One can hope though for a preferred weather type? Sadly I dont have the spiritual poise of Yoda or Obi wan Kenobi and still get ridiculously excited by heatwaves, thunderstorms, snow etc.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Of course, it is best to have no expectations and therefore no disappointment. One can hope though for a preferred weather type? Sadly I dont have the spiritual poise of Yoda or Obi wan Kenobi and still get ridiculously excited by heatwaves, thunderstorms, snow etc.

Use the Force, Luke...Posted Image 

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

Use the Force, Luke...Posted Image

I would, if only the weather wasn't ruled by the Dark Side....
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I would, if only the weather wasn't ruled by the Dark Side....

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted
Lol, it certainly had been powerful these last 6 years! We need to do something with our light sabres
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Use the Force, Luke...Posted Image 

There will be a disturbance in the force this weekend.Posted Image

post-4783-0-16085000-1371577992_thumb.pn

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Cheese Rice Community Regular

Cheese Rice

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
Posted (edited)

This is the NAE forecast temps for tomorrow afternoon, not like GFS, GFS does tend to overdo so use a higher res model.

 

They're not the max temp for tomorrow.

 

This is...Posted Image

Edited by Cheese Rice
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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

Amazing (and rather annoying) to see 35C on that map so close to us, some parts of the Netherlands could get there if that map is to be believed! There is nothing more frustrating at times than being a fan of heat in the UK and having to put up with so many near misses, then again the coldies feel the same a lot of the time during winter.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

GFS ENS isn't too bad considering the Op run (left)

 

Just hope it isn't the Operational picking up on the low which the ensembles slowly all back. Here's to the GFS being completely wrong Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Signs of hope on the Ecm 12z at T+144 hours with high pressure building a ridge towards the uk with the filling shallow trough departing to the northeast, there would be a good chance of a settled and pleasantly warm spell developing early next week which could last a while across the southern half of the uk at least.

post-4783-0-31140300-1371580640_thumb.gi

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

ECM looks decent at t144 with high pressure building

 

Posted Image

 

Lets hope ECM has picked up on a trend

 

Posted Image

 

T168 sees the high edging further east to cover all the UK

 

Posted Image

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Downpour Community Regular

Downpour

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
Posted

Just hope it isn't the Operational picking up on the low which the ensembles slowly all back. Here's to the GFS being completely wrong Posted Image

Looks like an outlier at least. Let's see the next few runs to see if we can file it in the bin.
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Looks like an outlier at least. Let's see the next few runs to see if we can file it in the bin.

 

ECM looks much more positive so far hopefully GFS 12z will end up in this

 

Posted Image

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Now this is more like it, come on ecm 12z, end today's model output on a highPosted Image

post-4783-0-63669600-1371581034_thumb.gi

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Now this is more like it, come on ecm 12z, end today's model output on a highPosted Image

 

Yep ECM looking much more positive tonight hopefully a new trend has been picked up on its ensemble run has been encouraging over the past few runs

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