Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Evening thunder]

They're not the max temp for tomorrow.

 

This is...

 

 

wow is that a 38C just on the German side of the Netherlands/German boarder! 

[Frosty.]

wow is that a 38C just on the German side of the Netherlands/German boarder! 

too hot, 22c is much nicer,

[Evening thunder]

Now this is more like it, come on ecm 12z, end today's model output on a high

 

Not particularly warm though:

Hopefully it would get warmer if that high pressure manages to hold on, rather than get flattened by the next low forming south of Greenland. Hopefully at least a few positive signs salvageable though, should not feel too bad in the sun there would like some at least average temps into/through July for once though.

[Summer Sun]

High pressure remains in charge from ECM tonight

 

 

Not overly warm at first but given the strength of the sun now it doesn't need to be

 

 

Getting warmer as the high dominates

 

 

 

 

The one exception to the settled weather looks to be the  SE corner in particular East Anglia thanks low pressure in Scandinavia but away from the part of the UK its high pressure galore

 

Edited June 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Evening thunder]

too hot, 22c is much nicer,

 

Yes I agree, I'd like to experience it just to see what it's like (briefly, with an air conditioned room nearby) but would find it very uncomfortable I suspect. However with my interest in weather I do like some extremes and find these things particularly hot/thundery plumes like this in Summer interesting and worth commenting on, and that seems a bit remarkable if that happens, that's the UK all time record there.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Captain Shortwave]

Urgh charts like this frustrate me

 

The Azores high is primed and ready to build into the UK, and hey presto, the Scandi trough decides to play a cock block manoeuvre.

So most of the UK dry and fine, East Anglia probably wet and cold

 

Charts like these would be gunning for one of the coldest Junes on record down here.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[DAVID SNOW]

Now this is more like it, come on ecm 12z, end today's model output on a high

 

Things are bad, that chart would give us rather chilly nights, below average temps by day,and a fair ammount of cloud floating around,hardly high summer?

[Frosty.]

Ecm 12z looks nice and settled later next week and pleasantly warm, really want to see the core of the high drift further east rather than being centred to the west and cut out any risk of a northerly down the north sea but it's just about fine and miles better than any other output for next week, hopefully this run won't be a rogue run and that the ecm 00z tomorrow builds on this, if it does, next week will have a completely different complexion.

[ANYWEATHER]

Cracker from ECM tonight

 

If you have a look at the chart in more detail, [if its correct ] then you will find lots of "flies in the ointment" Tbh coming on here and people showing far away charts given t+96hrs is FI is now wearing a bit thin.! With all respect show them ,but don't mislead people ! This chart would not be that warm, cloud would be an issue and perhaps showery rain for eastern Britain. I would call that anything but cracking summer weather 

[Summer Sun]

T240 sees the high extending further east

 

 

Given the persistence of the Azores this summer that could take some shifting especially across the south

Edited June 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[stainesbloke]

too hot, 22c is much nicer,

If only we could get to 22C though....think that's the highest it's got to here this year so far. Pathetic really.

[Costa Del Fal]

T240 sees the high extending further east

 

Its gone rather purple but you get the idea

 

Hmm not amazing and of course this is way into FI but beyond that chart I can see the high retreating back into the Atlantic and perhaps up towards Greenland. Although its a good run HP refuses to get easy of Britain.

[rory o gorman]

If you have a look at the chart in more detail, [if its correct:rofl: ] then you will find lots of "flies in the ointment" Tbh coming on here and people showing far away charts given t+96hrs is FI is now wearing a bit thin.! With all respect show them ,but don't mislead people ! This chart would not be that warm, cloud would be an issue and perhaps showery rain for eastern Britain. I would call that anything but cracking summer weather:rofl: 

Its a cracker for me here in southern ireland 

[Frosty.]

Things are bad, that chart would give us rather chilly nights, below average temps by day,and a fair ammount of cloud floating around,hardly high summer?

it looks warm and fine to me, decent uppers.

If only we could get to 22C though....think that's the highest it's got to here this year so far. Pathetic really.

you will tomorrow, you should get 24-25c tomorrow but with thundery showers tonight and then again tomorrow night and thursday.

[stainesbloke]

T240 sees the high extending further east

Given the persistence of the Azores this summer that could take some shifting especially across the south

Nice to see but at t240 unlikely!

[Milhouse]

That low close by to the east on the ECM isnt really concerning me, as its not like its been a feature of the long range models lately. Its just the usual variability of the ECM in FI. What is still encouraging is the strong and robust Azores high thats making advances towards the UK.

 

Low pressure also makes a quick exit from the UK so by Monday many areas away from NE coasts should enjoy a lot of dry weather. But with cool uppers over the UK it wont be that warm.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Milhouse

[Summer Sun]

Nice to see but at t240 unlikely!

 

Well its followed on from the ensemble run this morning so never say never................ the Azores has to move at some point its not going to stay where it is now for ever

Edited June 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[stainesbloke]

Well its followed on from the ensemble run this morning so never say never................ the Azores has to move at some point its not going to stay where it is now for ever

No, quite right, the Azores high will move. In September lol

[Frosty.]

Well its followed on from the ensemble run this morning so never say never................ the Azores has to move at some point its not going to stay where it is now for ever

Exactly, the azores high might become our friend next week for a change, this would be a turn up for the books if it becomes a trend.

[Milhouse]

If you have a look at the chart in more detail, [if its correct ] then you will find lots of "flies in the ointment" Tbh coming on here and people showing far away charts given t+96hrs is FI is now wearing a bit thin.! With all respect show them ,but don't mislead people ! This chart would not be that warm, cloud would be an issue and perhaps showery rain for eastern Britain. I would call that anything but cracking summer weather 

 

Got to agree there. Its all those lovely warm looking colours that give the impression that it would be a very warm day. But, in light winds further west it would be feeling pleasant with high teens, low 20s.

[A.J]

Just a friendly reminder folks that this thread is for current model output discussion and only that. For any other topic, there are plenty of more relevant threads here on NetWeather to choose from, and for a more specialized thread for moaning or ramping about the model runs, please post here .... http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

 

 

thanks

Edited June 18, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[Milhouse]

Hmm not amazing and of course this is way into FI but beyond that chart I can see the high retreating back into the Atlantic and perhaps up towards Greenland. Although its a good run HP refuses to get easy of Britain.

 

On the ECM eventually low pressure to the east of the UK manages to pull down some warm air from Scandinavia into the mix. Thats happened a couple of times during May if i recall right which helped to produce a warm day on the 31st with temperatures up to 22c. By T+240 there is quite an impressive Azores high which isnt in a great position for long lasting warmth for the UK. However due to its strength and >10c upper temperatures even a westerly or northwesterly could produce the mid 20s. But the more northerly the wind gets the greater chance of cooler air filtering south.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The 500hPa charts show the 500hPa heights which are positively correlated with pressure as well as temperature, so you can get oranges and reds under an intense anticyclone, up to a point, without it being especially warm at the surface.  The 850hPa charts are a better indicator.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

The 850s are at around 8C over most parts of the country which is close to the early-July average in the south and a little above average in the north.  I would expect a west-east split from a chart like that, with dry sunny weather in the west and a combination of warm days and cool nights, but somewhat more cloud in the east (especially East Anglia) with cool days and warm nights more likely.  Ireland, south Wales and south-west England would probably be the prime regions for warm sunshine in that setup.

 

I note that the GFS also has us in northerly winds at around T+144-192 but generally of colder origin which translates to sunshine and showers in the east and dry sunny weather in the west, while generally cool by day and night.  I don't think it's worth taking too much notice of the autumnal depressions that the GFS 12Z shows starting at around T+240- that's very much at the extreme end of the spectrum of possibilities re. potential for autumnal-type unsettled conditions.

 

I agree with the posts that said that the UKMO looks more likely to trend towards wet/cloudy at around days 7-10 with a flatter pattern showing at T+144 and the next Atlantic depression sinking the ridging high.

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the report from my prospective of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEm and ECM for tonight Tuesday June 18th 2013.All models are fairly agreed on the general weather pattern and course of events between now and the end of the coming weekend. A slack area of pressure lies over the UK at present with a thundery Low well to the South of the UK. An equally thundery trough lies to the SE and a wave on this could bring thundery rain into the SE by dawn tomorrow clearing soon after. Very warm and humid air has made it's way up into Southern Britain and with rather more sunshine tomorrow than today temperatures could reach 25-28C in parts of the SE making it the warmest day of the year so far. Things will change on Thursday as a more extensive area of thundery rain and humidity moves NE over England and Wales while at the same time fronts approach the West meaning the potential for very wet conditions on Thursday is high with cooler and fresher air swamping the UK by Friday. Through the rest of the day and weekend the weather becomes windy, cool and unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain with a few drier and brighter intervals.GFS shows Low pressure slipping away NE as we move into next week with slack pressure in rather cool uppers meaning a lot of dry weather would be expected but with the risk of scattered showers in near average temperatures. FI tonight is very disappointing as further troughs then Low pressure move into the UK from the West with rain or showers at times in continuing cool and sometimes windy conditions. There would still be some dry and bright weather in between the rain or showers more especially in the South later.The GFS Ensembles showthe warmth currently over the South soon becomes a thing of the past and it is pushed away towards Russia over the next few weeks with the UK stuck in yet another trough fed by Low pressure from the West delivering occasional rain or showers in disppointing temperatures for late June.The GFS Jet Stream pattern in the reliable timeframe continues to blow across the Atlantic to the UK and on over Europe maintaining the feed of Low pressure tracking across the North of the UK.UKMO tonight shows Low pressure retreating to the NE of Britain early in the weekand being replaced by a new one approaching to the NW with a weak ridge set to cross the UK later on Monday separating periods of unsettled and changeable weather with rain at times with drier and brighter periods too with temperatures generally unexciting for this time of year.GEM tonight is the one of the best of the bunch tonight. The model follows the others with regard to the weekend Low moving it across the UK at out to the NE late in the weekend and start to next week. It then builds pressure strongly from the SW with dry weather likely for most with any cloud and a little rain restricted to Northernmost parts. Temperatures would still be slow to rise very much but in the sun and periods of light winds it should feel pleasant enough should it evolve.NAVGEM is also a little better but falls short of a break in the general pattern as following a ridge of High pressure early next week when a dry and bright spell seems likely Low pressure and troughs are looking ominous just to the west of the UK at the end of the run a return to unsettled conditions soon after.ECM completes the set in verifying a cool, unsettled and windy weekend with rain or showers. As we move through next week pressure rises but temperatures don't with maintained cool uppers. With slack pressure winds would be light and there would be some dry weather to be enjoyed though cloud amounts could be quite large for many with the chance of scattered showers still very possible. Later in the week the Azores High does make progress into the UK with a spell of fine and bright weather with pressure in excess of 1025mbs ensuring dry and pleasantly warm conditions to end the run.In Summary tonight it was beginning to look a little disappointing from the models, particularly after the GFS run. GEM showed hope and then came along ECM which offers continued support for a strong rise of pressure from the SW later next week. Before we get there we have some potentially inclement days to get through and although if and when the better weather gets here it doesn't look like a heatwave is likely with a continuing NW influence to the wind but at least the synoptics as shown will maintain the far better conditions that we all endured through Summer 2012.

[ANYWEATHER]

Got to agree there. Its all those lovely warm looking colours that give the impression that it would be a very warm day. But, in light winds further west it would be feeling pleasant with high teens, low 20s.

Its the 850 mb chart you want to view not the 500mb chart.! Certainly not convinced of anything in that far range, and if those charts are correct most of mainland Britain would have below average temps...