Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Weather Boy]

Now this is more like it from the Gfs 06z, instead of a constant conveyor belt of atlantic depressions or troughs stuck limpet like on top of the uk, the 6z builds and rebuilds high pressure into the uk throughout most of FI with a good deal of dry, sunny and warm weather for all areas, the north of the uk doing well this week for dry weather and sunshine with pleasant warmth but becoming very warm and humid for england & wales for 2 or 3 days, especially warm in the southeast with temperatures nudging into the low 80's F with mid to upper 70's further north and west for a time, there will also be an increasing amount of thundery downpours for the very humid areas across southeastern britain but still with some sunshine, becoming cooler and more unsettled from the west next weekend with a cool and showery start to next week but then the atlantic/azores anticyclone pushes across the uk.

 

I think, though, that we need to see more than one (potentially) rogue GFS run in FI before we get too excited.  The foreseeable (i.e. this week into the weekend) is somewhat changeable and beyond that is anyone's guess.

 

That said, it would be a surprise if the Azores didn't make the odd foray into these shores (although that does happen, such as in the horror show summer of 1988 for example when it was limpet to, er, the Azoeres) and we'd be due a visit early next week, so it's far from implausible.

 

Remember, though, that the Meto all but ignore the GFS after day 7/8, so extreme caution required.

 

I must say, though, that I think some people ought to reappraise their expectations of early summer.  Moaning about conditions that aren't far from average is annoying and unproductive.  At my location, for June I have above average sun, waaaay below average rain, although admittedly temperatures have failed to impress so far, being a touch below average.  But when set against average, who can complain about that?  Perhaps go live in Spain or Greece instead, moaners?!

[Frosty.]

I think, though, that we need to see more than one (potentially) rogue GFS run in FI before we get too excited. 

 

I must say, though, that I think some people ought to reappraise their expectations of early summer.  Moaning about conditions that aren't far from average is annoying and unproductive.  At my location, for June I have above average sun, waaaay below average rain, although admittedly temperatures have failed to impress so far, being a touch below average.  But when set against average, who can complain about that?  Perhaps go live in Spain or Greece instead, moaners?!

It's not just a rogue run though, the gfs has been regularly showing the azores/atlantic anticyclone building strongly to the west of the uk in the early outlook period and this 6z run just carries through with that potential but the more likely outcome will probably be for a northwest-southeast split with the azores high ridging in much further south with atlantic depressions continuing to torment the northwest of the uk, at least this week brings a much needed window of fine and pleasant weather to the long suffering northwestern corner of the uk.

 

Yes I agree, the constant moaners should go and live in a guaranteed hotter climate, but then they would moan about it being too hot.

Edited June 17, 2013 by Frosty039

[Captain Shortwave]

 

Yes I agree, the constant moaners should go and live in a guaranteed hotter climate, but then they would moan about it being too hot.

 

To be fair whilst some parts of the country have had a fairly decent start to the summer, some areas have been pretty dreadful. In East Anglia it's currently running the 6th coldest June on record and for some areas close to the coast the daytime average is some 6 to 8 degrees below normal with the persistent North easterly wind causing temperatures to struggle to even reach double figures.

I was cheering when the settled weather broke down last week because frankly, 17/18 degrees feels tropical 

Edited June 17, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

In East Anglia it's currently running the 6th coldest June on record and for some areas close to the coast the daytime average is some 6 to 8 degrees below normal with the persistent North easterly wind causing temperatures to struggle to even reach double figures.

 

the very warm and muggy spell this week should cheer them up then, apart from the tropical downpours.

[Summer Sun]

Although GFS looks good with its high pressure run extreme caution is needed I'm not saying its wrong but given the way things look longer term currently and its ensemble run doesn't really back it It may turn out to be an outlier

 

The best from the ensemble is this

 

[Frosty.]

Although GFS looks good with its high pressure run extreme caution is needed I'm not saying its wrong but given the way things look longer term currently and its ensemble run doesn't really back it It may turn out to be an outlier

 

The best from the ensemble is this

 

Yes Gavin, and the gfs has shown a very unsettled FI recently so caution is required but I think perhaps a middle ground between the 6z and the gefs mean is possible, the generally unsettled pattern that seems to have gone on and on for months without a break will change at some point despite the met office update giving no sign of any sustained settled weather in the next 4 weeks, i'm not including the recent fine spell because for large parts of the uk it was cool and dull with a nagging easterly off the north sea.

Edited June 17, 2013 by Frosty039

[johnholmes]

Two things

One, before picking up on a post from someone not in your area, please have a look at their location, location can and does make a large difference to ones weather.

Second for those hoping that one run is showing the way please take a look at the anomaly charts. They do give first class guidance on the overall upper air pattern over the period they cover, 6-10 and 8-14 days. The upper air largely governs what happens at the surface for weather patterns in our latitudes. Unless they all 3 show a change to the current ouputs, and do it for 3 days, then don't count too many settled hot chickens so to speak!

[snowking]

Interesting juncture coming up in the 10-15 day period

 

MJO forecasts still undecided as to whether to head into phase 8 or phase 1. On the face of things, the GFS seems pretty steadfast on phase 8:

 

 

Where as the ECMWF moves briefly through phase 8, and then onwards to phase 1 fairly rapidly:

 

 

In terms of where each phase leaves us heading towards July, phase 8 gives us something more settled:

 

 

Where as phase 1 leaves lower heights slap bang over the UK:

 

 

So you may think thats it then, a simple ECM/GFS split. However, if we take a look at the bias corrected GEFS MJO projection:

 

 

We see a progression more akin to that suggested by the ECMWF - that is temporary phase 8, before heading towards phase 1.

 

Which would suggest to me a temporary ridging structure in around 12-15 days time (final days of June/July) - reanalysis of the composite years used for the summer forecast offers around 75% correlation with such a notion, though based more around the first few days of July, as opposed to the final days of June.

 

With the recent (and forecast continued) fall in AAM, the GWO looks likely to oscillate around phases 1-4. Composites for such a progression are mixed, but the likely transition from phases 1-2 during the final days of the month also offer the chance of a temporary ridge, so the chance of a few more settled days later this month.

 

However, all of the suggestion beyond this and into the start of July, at present, suggests a rather unsettled picture - the GEFS, for now, should perhaps be disregarded beyond day 10 given the discrepancies between teleconnection forecasts and its own raw un-corrected output.

 

So the general idea into the 10-15 day period is perhaps a temporary ridge, before things go downhill once again into early July

 

SK

Edited June 17, 2013 by snowking

[Tony27]

It's not just a rogue run though, the gfs has been regularly showing the azores/atlantic anticyclone building strongly to the west of the uk in the early outlook period and this 6z run just carries through with that potential but the more likely outcome will probably be for a northwest-southeast split with the azores high ridging in much further south with atlantic depressions continuing to torment the northwest of the uk, at least this week brings a much needed window of fine and pleasant weather to the long suffering northwestern corner of the uk.

 

Yes I agree, the constant moaners should go and live in a guaranteed hotter climate, but then they would moan about it being too hot.

northwest scotland have had some dry decent weather this month though haven't they? its just yet again another stereotype that scotland always does worse than the south and east when thats not always the case,

 

this is getting laughable now, the GFS has yet again over cooked temps for my area by predicting 19c for today and it is 16.5c and cloudy with a horrible easterly out there i think its about the 9th or 10th time it has done that in the last two weeks,  24c tomorrow and 27c on wednesday according to the GFS i'll believe it when i see it

 

as for posters telling other posters to stop moaning, we are weather enthusiasts we want to see notable weather, whats so great about 16c 17c and cloudy for example, i know its not way below average or totally foul weather, but its about time we see temps a little bit above average now, and we will do for all of 2 or 3 days woopy

Edited June 17, 2013 by Tony27

[Evening thunder]

GFS isn't always under-doing maxima, though maybe it's more location dependant. GFS and the Met Office predicted 17C for here yesterday, it's actually turned out to be 22C with sunny intervals.

[Tony27]

GFS isn't always under-doing maxima, though maybe it's more location dependant. GFS and the Met Office predicted 17C for here yesterday, it's actually turned out to be 22C with sunny intervals.

yes i am aware the north and west has done better than the GFS predicted at times this month, but for the east it has overcooked temps maybe it has underestimated the cool north sea temps? thankfully the easterly wind dies down tomorrow and the east away from the coast may see 23c but cloud is another issue if its cloudy then temps are probably overcooked again

 

as i speak the temp has jumped up to 17.8c so we could get to 19c prove me wrong GFS 

Edited June 17, 2013 by Tony27

[Downpour]

I think, though, that we need to see more than one (potentially) rogue GFS run in FI before we get too excited.  The foreseeable (i.e. this week into the weekend) is somewhat changeable and beyond that is anyone's guess.

 

That said, it would be a surprise if the Azores didn't make the odd foray into these shores (although that does happen, such as in the horror show summer of 1988 for example when it was limpet to, er, the Azoeres) and we'd be due a visit early next week, so it's far from implausible.

 

Remember, though, that the Meto all but ignore the GFS after day 7/8, so extreme caution required.

 

I must say, though, that I think some people ought to reappraise their expectations of early summer.  Moaning about conditions that aren't far from average is annoying and unproductive.  At my location, for June I have above average sun, waaaay below average rain, although admittedly temperatures have failed to impress so far, being a touch below average.  But when set against average, who can complain about that?  Perhaps go live in Spain or Greece instead, moaners?!

That wouldn't actually stop them moaning – they'd be like the Brits who take their holidays to Turkey in August and spend the entire fortnight moaning about the heat

[johnholmes]

this is getting laughable now, the GFS has yet again over cooked temps for my area by predicting 19c for today and it is 16.5c and cloudy with a horrible easterly out there i think its about the 9th or 10th time it has done that in the last two weeks,  24c tomorrow and 27c on wednesday according to the GFS i'll believe it when i see it

currently Luton airport=18C with Td=10C and no cloud below 5000ft with wind ENE 13mph

[Tony27]

its always a bit warmer at the airport but yes it is now 18c here too, i doubt it will get to 19c now though but GFS is only a degree wrong today

Edited June 17, 2013 by Tony27

[Downpour]

It's not just a rogue run though, the gfs has been regularly showing the azores/atlantic anticyclone building strongly to the west of the uk in the early outlook period and this 6z run just carries through with that potential but the more likely outcome will probably be for a northwest-southeast split with the azores high ridging in much further south with atlantic depressions continuing to torment the northwest of the uk, at least this week brings a much needed window of fine and pleasant weather to the long suffering northwestern corner of the uk.

Yes I agree, the constant moaners should go and live in a guaranteed hotter climate, but then they would moan about it being too hot.

I find the entire moan fest baffling - June has been pretty good down here, last week excepted- even that wasn't too bad. This week looks warm

with a genuine chance of some storms. Long may it continue.

[johnholmes]

its always a bit warmer at the airport but yes it is now 18c here too, i doubt it will get to 19c now though but GFS is only a degree wrong today

you may be surprised to learn that a prediction within +/-2C is considered a correct forecast by most forecast centres.

[Tony27]

i wonder how much thundery rain or showers will we actually see, this chart has intense rain in the north sea, a shame to miss out, the north seas gives us vile weather and now its taking our storms too shhttp://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130617/12/96/ukprec.png

 

but every run has the showers in different places, i suspect some will see some thundery showers probably not here though as per

GFS still going for 30c in london on Wednesday, mid to high twenties elsewhere in england

Edited June 17, 2013 by Tony27

[Summer Sun]

GFS remains consistent this afternoon with 30c+ in the london area on Wednesday

 

 

Thunderstorm potential looks quite high

 

 

By Thursday temperatures tumble down to 20c for London

 

 

The beebs weather graphics go for 23c max in London but Nina ridge did say they could reach the high 20's. I think everything is going to hinge on the cloud if it breaks temperatures will rocket if it doesn't they'll be stuck in the mid 20's

Edited June 17, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

Some incredible temperatures are on the cards for the near Continent if GFS is correct, 36C for the Dortmund/Essen area, astonishing for mid June and perhaps shows the kind of heat some areas of the UK could get with some slight adjustments from the models.

[Summer Sun]

Some incredible temperatures are on the cards for the near Continent if GFS is correct, 36C for the Dortmund/Essen area, astonishing for mid June and perhaps shows the kind of heat some areas of the UK could get with some slight adjustments from the models.

 

Yes some incredible heat across parts of Europe the hottest temperature in France today so far is 35.7°C at EuroAirport Basel–Mulhouse–Freiburg which is on the border with Switzerland and Germany

 

Back home and we are still on course for an unsettled weekend

 

Edited June 17, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Tony27]

The UKMO only has highs of 22c for wednesday albeit this is a chart for 13,00 hours so maybe 25c max? http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U48-580.GIF?17-17

they may undercook temps in this set up but just like the GFS it has overcooked temps recently for some areas

 

Then come friday and the weekend the UKMO is horrific, this brief bit of heat will soon be forgotton, when we are looking out the window at the rain and having the heating on

[Milhouse]

Not looking a good weekend at all with a horrible looking low over the UK bringing cool and unsettled conditions. The positive in the long run seems to be that there isnt another low queueing up to take its place when it eventually departs. Indeed, the GFS 12z shows the low slipping off to the north to be replaced by drier conditions for next week.

[Summer Sun]

GFS has backed off on its pressure rise from the 06z I thought it was going to be an outlier given it had no support

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

 

The weekend sees temperatures back down to the high teens at best

 

[Milhouse]

A fairly encouraging ECM mean from the 0z with quite a decent pressure rise

 

[johnholmes]

i wonder how much thundery rain or showers will we actually see, this chart has intense rain in the north sea, a shame to miss out, the north seas gives us vile weather and now its taking our storms too shhttp://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130617/12/96/ukprec.png

 

but every run has the showers in different places, i suspect some will see some thundery showers probably not here though as per

GFS still going for 30c in london on Wednesday, mid to high twenties elsewhere in england

rainfall charts even 24 hours out are at times wrong and looking for accuracy for Friday on Monday is, no offence intended, pretty much a waste of time.