Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Summer Sun]

3 successive hot runs from GFS now with the hottest day of the year likely on Wednesday now

 

 

And the hot day is followed by a warm night with temperatures just under 20c at 3am in the SE

 

 

Thursday sees the heat build again

 

 

Wednesday could see things go bang

 

 

The risk decreases on Thursday but this doesn't mean there won't be thundery downpours because given the heat they are very likely

 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

NOT what I want to see! Couldn't make it up given what's coming this week (whilst I'll be either still at work or frantically working indoors getting things ready!)

viewimage.png

 

Really come on weather I've been nice to you over years no play nice with me! arrreggggg

 

Unfortunately the latest met office update doesn't look good for you either

 

Many areas are likely to see sunshine and scattered showers on Friday, with the threat of heavy and thundery rain for a time across South East England. More persistent rain accompanied by stronger winds is expected to spread eastwards on Saturday to affect most areas, although some eastern parts may remain dry.

 

Lets hope we see some downgrades in this rain and wind on your wedding day is not what anyone wants

Edited June 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Well the beebs weather for the week ahead has just been on and either GFS is leading us down the Garden path or they are been very cautious

 

Wednesday highs of around 26c in London and mainly dry (GFS is at 30c with thundery rain)

 

Thursday highs of just 16c in London and mainly dry again (GFS is at 25c big differences here with a 9c gap between GFS and what the met office are going for)

 

So as we can see someone is going to be miles away especially on Thursday

Edited June 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Gordon Webb]

BBC forecast just on BBC1 doesn't show 30+ on wednesday just a maximum of 25 -26 in the SE and that all depends on cloud breaks and then back down to 16 on so on thursday because they show the warm air been swept away

 

a lot seems to depend how far that warm front gets northwards with the warm/hot humid air behind it and though thundery showers are possible according to the BBC their forecast is for mainly dry weather

 

but they do state a lot of uncertainy so nothing is as clear cut as it appears and on a purely selfish note I hope the hot/humid air and thundery showers stays down south as I hate all of that

[Frosty.]

Well the beebs weather for the week ahead has just been on and either GFS is leading us down the Garden path or they are been very cautious

 

Wednesday highs of around 26c in London and mainly dry (GFS is at 30c with thundery rain)

 

Thursday highs of just 16c in London and mainly dry again (GFS is at 25c big differences here with a 9c gap between GFS and what the met office are going for)

 

So as we can see someone is going to be miles away especially on Thursday

The gfs is just showing the potential that is there for a hot and humid thundery spell, it's no different to in winter if a cold and snowy outbreak had the potential, it would be treated the same way at this range, i.e. underwhelmingly.

[nitro_deluxe]

Yes, always a tricky forecast - not least looking at those temps soaring just over the Channel?

[Mark Parsons]

We will probably just get side swiped as often happens with the SE doing ok for a couple of days! 

[stainesbloke]

Could have some interesting weather this week with regards to thunderstorm potential. However, my feeling is that GFS has overcooked the temps, it will more likely be cloudy and humid, especially with a feed off of the North Sea, with max temps more like 22C than 32C. It's the sheer awfulness of what comes after that I'm more concerned about, yuck.

[rmc1987]

Cloudy conditions to prevail then the GFS has perhaps had a few too many beers with it's 30c.

Maybe we will hit the 26c progged by BBC but we'll have to see. I like warmth very much and even the other day, although cloudy, it was warmish and quite humid. In fact I believe the dew point was about 17c. It felt most unusual for England. That said some sun would be most welcome, a little cheeky seemingly.

A bit of a warm up then a quick cool down, once again cloudy, cool and wet conditions prevailing and out living any warmer sunny spells as per.

[Methuselah]

Here's a question: did anyone foresee the dramatic turnaround that occurred at the very start of July 1983? I'm almost sure that there was short-lived thundery outbreak (at least for East Anglia) during what was a generally dire June...Although there were high-level thunderstorms, the weather (on the ground) was far from inspiring - cloudy, grey and 15C - if I recall...

 

I'm not saying that the models are wrong, just that, if the pattern were to dramatically change, all of the models (and LRFers) will be taken by surprise...As per usual? 

[Gael_Force]

Here's a question: did anyone foresee the dramatic turnaround that occurred at the very start of July 1983? I'm almost sure that there was short-lived thundery outbreak (at least for East Anglia) during what was a generally dire June...Although there were high-level thunderstorms, the weather (on the ground) was far from inspiring - cloudy, grey and 15C - if I recall...

 

I'm not saying that the models are wrong, just that, if the pattern were to dramatically change, all of the models (and LRFers) will be taken by surprise...As per usual? 

 

No, it wouldn't surprise me. Some very warm July years featuring in recent NOAA analogs.

 

These will be based more on a wider spectrum fit and of course are for years before the big green blob appeared as our regular summer default.

 

[bluearmy]

lets face it - thues/wed/thurs is miles away from being decided re where the high uppers get and the consequential rain band (and intensity). just watch each set of output and deduce the direction of travel.  remember that sat and today weren't well forecast as late as fri afternoon. 

[Tony27]

so it looks like we will get yet another easterly tomorrow and tuesday with the east once again being on the cool side, if we do get an easterly no way will it be hot like the GFS is predicting as it always seems to overcook temps now rather than undercook them, today is about the 8th time in the last two weeks it has overcooked temps for my area

 

Edit typical downgrade for wednesday gone is 30c and is replaced with 24c for central england, that's still fine of course as long as it dosen't end up being average and 19c in the end, by thursday it cools down rapidly, gone is the heat that the 06z showed, the 12z replaces it with cool temps and it will be showery, the wild swings from run to run is doing my head in

Edited June 16, 2013 by Tony27

[Summer Sun]

GFS is now more in line with the met offices expectations with highs around 24c possibly 26c max in some spots

 

 

Thursday is also down to lower figures now still higher than what the beeb have for London they have 16c GFS has 21c

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Just small adjustments in the track of that low have huge differences in the weather and temperatures predicted. For example parts of East Anglia had highs of 28 degree on the 06z, this run the temperature has been downgraded a full 10 degrees due to the wind coming from the North East as opposed to the South East on the previous run. Add to that the couple of hundred mile shift East of the warmest uppers.

Edited June 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

After a most dry and warm week we see a return to wet conditions on Saturday with a band of rain (heavy at times) moving west to east

 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Tony27]

Dry? http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130616/12/78/ukprec.png

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130616/12/111/ukprec.png

 

Warm? http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130616/12/30/ukmaxtemp.png  

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130616/12/99/ukmaxtemp.png

 

i think mixed is what sums up this week, 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Tony27

[Summer Sun]

Dry? http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130616/12/78/ukprec.png http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130616/12/111/ukprec.png

Warm? http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130616/12/30/ukmaxtemp.png  http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130616/12/99/ukmaxtemp.png

 

i think mixed is what sums up this week, 

 

Well the met office certainly think it will be mostly dry this week - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2715181

[Tony27]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013061612/gfs-0-192.png?12

 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Tony27

[rmc1987]

Oh more wind from the North Sea, exciting. GFS also sobering up with an expected downgrade, only thing predictable about it really.

So we can expect an ok few days, it's not going to be wall to wall and hot but a bit of a mix and pleasant I would say.

Cooling down from Thursday though and back to basics.

Edited June 16, 2013 by rmc1987

[Gael_Force]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013061612/gfs-0-192.png?12

 

 

 

Indeed - what joy, we get rid of blobby only to usher in Dec 2010 synoptics for the start of July.

[Frosty.]

There are a few positives from the models today, the Ecm 00z at T+240 hours with the azores/atlantic anticyclone heading towards the uk and on the Gfs 12z this afternoon, not far beyond the same timeframe shows a huge mass of high pressure to the west of the uk, both models show a scandi trough but the gfs trough looks much more organised with the ecm more of a departing low pressure system, the gfs in FI never improves whereas the ecm is much better, it encourages me to see all that high pressure building strongly northwards and edging eastwards towards late June, it may bode well for us later in the month and into July, our luck will surely change soon.

Edited June 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[stainesbloke]

There are a few positives from the models today, the Ecm 00z at T+240 hours with the azores/atlantic anticyclone heading towards the uk and on the Gfs 12z this afternoon, not far beyond the same timeframe shows a huge mass of high pressure to the west of the uk, both models show a scandi trough but the gfs never improves whereas the ecm is much better, it encourages me to see all that high pressure building strongly northwards and edging eastwards towards late June, it may bode well for us later in the month and into July, our luck will surely change soon.

Well nothing stays the same forever but it's amazing how such a cool, cloudy, crap pattern can manage to stick around for so long at this time of year, and not just this year too. I don't see anything to convince me our luck will change even at t240, but then I'm a pessimist from experience lol...

[Evening thunder]

Could have some interesting weather this week with regards to thunderstorm potential. However, my feeling is that GFS has overcooked the temps, it will more likely be cloudy and humid, especially with a feed off of the North Sea, with max temps more like 22C than 32C. It's the sheer awfulness of what comes after that I'm more concerned about, yuck.

 

The feed doesn't really look like being off the north sea on Wednesday and not strong enough to influence Staines anyway, Looks like you were right about the GFS overdoing maxima though due to it showing the plume too far west and it has now shifted things east, unless it changes back again.

What comes after Still get 19C maxima afterwards in the SE, maybe a tad higher. Probably some sunshine with some showers. This is using the 06Z which was the latest at the time of your post. The 12z is pretty much the same.

 

Not that unusual for June. If you think the GFS is 'shear awfulness' you can't remember last June that well.

Granted, not good at the moment for those only looking for warm/settled or heatwave weather, but then those just looking for that will be unhappy for more of UK summers than they will not be.

 

With a bit of luck apart from a few fronts most of the LP showing up now will be more 'sunshine and showers' type weather.

Edited June 16, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Frosty.]

Well nothing stays the same forever but it's amazing how such a cool, cloudy, crap pattern can manage to stick around for so long at this time of year, and not just this year too. I don't see anything to convince me our luck will change even at t240, but then I'm a pessimist from experience lol...

Well we can't be stuck under a trough all the time, the week ahead looks relatively good to me, lots of fine and pleasantly warm weather widespread across the uk with just a few scattered showers but becoming warmer and more humid with the risk of thundery rain across the far south/southeast but many areas dry with sunny spells, turning unsettled from the west next weekend into the following week.