Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[stainesbloke]

The feed doesn't really look like being off the north sea on Wednesday and not strong enough to influence Staines anyway, Looks like you were right about the GFS overdoing maxima though due to it showing the plume too far west and it has now shifted things east, unless it changes back again.

What comes after Still get 19C maxima afterwards in the SE, maybe a tad higher. Probably some sunshine with some showers. This is using the 06Z which was the latest at the time of your post. The 12z is pretty much the same.

Not that unusual for June. If you think the GFS is 'shear awfulness' you can't remember last June that well.

Granted, not good at the moment for those only looking for warm/settled or heatwave weather, but then those just looking for that will be unhappy for more of UK summers than they will not be.

With a bit of luck apart from a few fronts most of the LP showing up now will be more 'sunshine and showers' type weather.

Well, conditions in the Staines Riviera may come good lol... Seriously though, I remember last June very well. The only thing missing this year is the wet. The cold, cloud and wind are occurring in abundance. So it's slightly better this year but again, the persistence of troughing over the UK is notable for all the wrong reasons.

[Evening thunder]

Well, conditions in the Staines Riviera may come good lol... Seriously though, I remember last June very well. The only thing missing this year is the wet. The cold, cloud and wind are occurring in abundance. So it's slightly better this year but again, the persistence of troughing over the UK is notable for all the wrong reasons.

 

Maybe lol, I forgot to add that I am looking for/wanting warmth too, just wanting to focus on other positives or not so bad things, maybe my mind has got bored of getting fed up of recent summers lol. I do find it a little frustrating if nothing is showing up for a while like now, just don't think conditions are always quite as bad as some describe.

 

I was in Egham until yesterday, there were some decent days at the beginning of June for me, and a decent afternoon a couple days ago, but yes quite a bit of cloud recently too, I haven't found the wind too bad but I sometimes quite like the wind in the trees.

 

Has lacked warmth though (as in above average temps, saw 21-22C at Heathrow in early June), I guess this year hasn't had warmth before summer too like late May 2012

 

I should probably stop being a bit off topic, so on a more on-topic note I noticed comparing uppers on the UKMO 12z to the GFS 12z the plume of warm uppers seem slightly further west on the UKMO at midday Wednesday, so maybe not a downgrade in temps and storm risk to the same extent as the GFS 12z, though nothing like the GFS 06z showed.

[William of Walworth]

Still time for modest improvements </blatant hopecasting .... >

[Methuselah]

Well, conditions in the Staines Riviera may come good lol... Seriously though, I remember last June very well. The only thing missing this year is the wet. The cold, cloud and wind are occurring in abundance. So it's slightly better this year but again, the persistence of troughing over the UK is notable for all the wrong reasons.

No worries, SB...Staines-Upon-Thames will be basking in sunshine!

[Summer Sun]

The GFS london ensemble shows the uppers peaking at +15 before a fairly sharp fall back to average

 

 

Manchester peaks at around +13 uppers before also returning to average

 

 

Aberdeen and Dublin peak at +10 and +11 respectively

 

 

The bulk of the heat though is in Germany with Berlin looking like seeing temperatures of 30c minimum with sunshine on Wednesday

 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

ECM is still showing warm uppers hitting the SE on Wednesday mid 20's should be hit providing the cloud breaks for long enough if it doesn't it could be a muggy, sticky and cloudy day the worst type of weather in my book

 

 

Thursday sees the warmest uppers leaving and by Friday we see a weak ridge of high pressure so we should see a dry day but its likely to be quite cloudy if it does break its will feel pleasant given the strong June sunshine and the longest day of the year

 

 

Come Saturday and Sunday things go down hill with low pressure sweeping in

 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[ANYWEATHER]

Well we can't be stuck under a trough all the time, the week ahead looks relatively good to me, lots of fine and pleasantly warm weather widespread across the uk with just a few scattered showers but becoming warmer and more humid with the risk of thundery rain across the far south/southeast but many areas dry with sunny spells, turning unsettled from the west next weekend into the following week.

This week ahead will see nowcasting weather forecasts ,well up to Thursday anyway! The southern half of the Uk is problematic in issuing any defined forecast due to the fact of the uncertainty in regard to the continental plume. Potential for the years highest temps in the South East especially, but as regards precip , very difficult to call. I expect some surprises with the weather in the week ahead more picticularly in the south, IE temps and precip, I expect Scotland will enjoy the best of the dry weather until Thursday..     

[shae]

is the GFS chart generally accurate at t240 or can I expect it to change a lot within the next 10 days?

[ANYWEATHER]

is the GFS chart generally accurate at t240 or can I expect it to change a lot within the next 10 days?

Not at all, and any other model too! Go out to T+96 as more reliable ,but even that is pushing it!  

[shae]

Not at all, and any other model too! Go out to T+96 as more reliable ,but even that is pushing it!  

Ah good! Only just learning how to actually understand the different models and will be relying on them when it comes to knowing what kind of weather is expected for Glastonbury:) Very glad it's going to change as I don't think it's looking very good at the moment!

[Summer Sun]

High pressure continues to struggle to get in

 

 

It doesn't look particularly warm either for the time of year

 

Any hints for a rise in pressure continues to stay at t240

 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[ANYWEATHER]

Ah good! Only just learning how to actually understand the different models and will be relying on them when it comes to knowing what kind of weather is expected for Glastonbury:) Very glad it's going to change as I don't think it's looking very good at the moment!

Just be careful of folks posting high pressure charts well down the line Which never materialize!!  

Edited June 16, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[J10]

Latest Glastonbury blog now published.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4624-glastonbury-forecast-10-16th-june-mini/

 

Considerable differences today between GFS - looking more than a little unsettled both this week and into Glastonbury week.

ECM - Making less of any disturbance to our east this week, and settling down from the South West  into Glastonbury week.

Both have it unsettled for next weekend.

Edited June 16, 2013 by Jackone

[J10]

This week ahead will see nowcasting weather forecasts ,well up to Thursday anyway! The southern half of the Uk is problematic in issuing any defined forecast due to the fact of the uncertainty in regard to the continental plume. Potential for the years highest temps in the South East especially, but as regards precip , very difficult to call. I expect some surprises with the weather in the week ahead more picticularly in the south, IE temps and precip, I expect Scotland will enjoy the best of the dry weather until Thursday..     

 

 

On the left is the GFS 06Hz rainfall up to T+144, and the right the 12Hz version, a bit of difference to say the least.

[Frosty.]

A pretty good Ecm 12z with a lot of fine and warm weather in the week ahead with weak ridging to the northeast & southwest putting the squeeze on the shower risk for many areas. Becoming very warm and humid across the southeast of the uk in particular with a growing threat of thundery rain and thunderstorms but many areas mainly dry and warm with sunny spells but a scattering of heavy showers, an atlantic ridge pushes eastwards across the uk on friday with cooler and fresher air spreading from the west but pleasantly warm with sunshine and light winds, next weekend becomes generally unsettled with showers and longer periods of rain with temperatures returning closer to average but once again, as with the 00z, T+240 hours holds the promise of the azores/atlantic anticyclone paying a much welcomed visit to the uk, so overall it's good.

Edited June 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[Cloud 10]

is the GFS chart generally accurate at t240 or can I expect it to change a lot within the next 10 days?

 

 

Hi Shae,as an example of how accurate the GFS is at t240,below is today's actual chart and alongside is what it predicted 10 days ago.

 

today..  10 days ago..

 

 

Never trust any operational run at that sort of timescale unless its showing a screaming easterly with minus 20 uppers!  

[ANYWEATHER]

Rmgfs144sum 16 1.gif Rmgfs144sum 16 2.gif

 

On the left is the GFS 06Hz rainfall up to T+144, and the right the 12Hz version, a bit of difference to say the least.

Yes ,quite right, loads of differences from run one to the next, Personally I will take every day as it comes because the precip charts on the models wont be accurate, and I don't believe any Forecast this week on Tv will be accurate!!!  As I said earlier, some very interesting weather on the way for some parts of Southern Uk.  

Edited June 16, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[shae]

Hi Shae,as an example of how accurate the GFS is at t240,below is today's actual chart and alongside is what it predicted 10 days ago.

 

today..gfs-0-6.png  10 days ago..gfs-2013060612-0-240.png

 

 

Never trust any operational run at that sort of timescale unless its showing a screaming easterly with minus 20 uppers!  

Thanks! Makes me feel a lot better about how bad it is showing at the moment over the time of Glastonbury!

[Frosty.]

 I will take every day as it comes because the precip charts on the models wont be accurate, and I don't believe any Forecast this week on Tv will be accurate!!!  

looking out of the window will be very accurate

Edited June 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[peterf]

looking out of the window will be very accurate:good:

with the blinds closed.

[Frosty.]

with the blinds closed.

.

The netweather radar 

Edited June 17, 2013 by Frosty039

[Thundery wintry showers]

Like a lot of people I assumed that today and the next couple of days would at least have some decent sunny intervals mixed with broken cloud, but today has been predominantly cloudy here in North Yorkshire and the satellite images suggest that the cloudy parts of the British Isles heavily outnumbered those that had a far amount of sunshine.  This mainly cloudy quiet weather looks like continuing tomorow, except near the south coast where it will be wet, but I think Tuesday may well see more sunshine and somewhat higher temperatures, as high as 23-26C in southern parts, perhaps also some sharp showers with local thunder in the south-west but most other regions should have a dry day.

 

The trough to the SE that is set to move north-eastwards on Wednesday and Thursday is likely to cause a lot of headaches.  At present Thursday is looking the most likely day to end up cloudy, wet and relatively cool.  Friday is looking likely to be dry and fairly sunny (I say "likely" because of the uncertainty over Wednesday/Thursday- given this, Friday is far from certain) and then there is strong agreement on the next Atlantic frontal system pushing in on Saturday.

[Frosty.]

Thundery downpours and thunderstorms are on the way, there are already some today clipping the far southeast but from this evening/tonight and tomorrow they will spread up from the channel islands into southern england and then rumble northwards across england & wales, reaching northern england later tomorrow, becoming very warm and humid in the next few days as hot and humid continental air drifts northwards across england and wales with 26c 79f across central, southern and eastern england tomorrow afternoon with some sunshine but the sunshine will be the trigger for homegrown thunderstorms to brew up and continue across the southern half of the uk until later in the week, temperatures could head into the low  to mid 80's F in southern areas but the north of the uk probably remain in relatively more benign conditions with lots of sunshine and temperatures closer to 20c 68f which will be very pleasant compared to the very warm and sticky weather further south. So a heatwave is on the way with a thundery plume.

Edited June 17, 2013 by Frosty039

[mushymanrob]

well with these charts in broad agreement, suggesting troughing over the uk, after this weeks warm and humid blip its looking very much like the last third of june will be unsettled, cool, windy at times and wet at times. its looking like the jet is expected to take a southerly track.

 

great.

 

just what we want to see as we approach july

 

 

[rmc1987]

Some high DP temperatures on GFS of 20c I have seen, wow. Now I don't mind that, in the UK that's exceptional.

The GFS values on DP I've never taken notice but it seems it's probably around 5c higher than actual? Anyone have any insight in to this?