Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Tamara]

as expected the ecm mean and naefs looking a better bet for a less unsettled outlook. we're some way from converting that to settled though. stay positive and hope for the 'flattening jet pendulum' to stay on a ne track rather than destination nw europe as it has so far for most of the past six weeks. 

I think there is every chance of a less unsettled 'snap' more especially for more southern areas as the ECM mean and NAEFS suggest, as you rightly point out.  However, the realistic thought has to be that we have seen suggestions of the jet stream returning further northwards so many times, for so long, and then adjusting back southwards once more, it is hard (at this stage) to muster too much faith and optimism in the latest indications. The background t/c's also suggest just a temporary improvement before the trough re-sets close to the UK once more.

 

As picog rightly points out with her closer to home ensemble charts, the coming ten days indicates unsettled weather fairly widely until that possible improvement later, for a time. In the immediate future, there is still this thundery threatening muggy ordeal of weather to get rid of *she says politely* Pity something more joyous isn't replacing it as something of a reward.

 

So - overall in summary, its happy days basically! 

Edited June 18, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Gael_Force]

No, it wouldn't surprise me. Some very warm July years featuring in recent NOAA analogs.

 

These will be based more on a wider spectrum fit and of course are for years before the big green blob appeared as our regular summer default.

 

 

 

Following on from this, nice summer forecast on the updated seasonal from CMA and looking good for July on JMA.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201306.D1000_gl0.png

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

I tend to agree more with Tamara's post here rather than the assessments of fine and warm weather in the south on the previous page.  While the longer-range outputs have high pressure exerting more of an influence on the UK's weather, the high is mostly shown as ridging across to the south and this is likely to allow systems and disturbances to influence our weather around its north-eastern flank, providing relatively changeable (though not necessarily particularly wet) conditions.  Winds are also likely to be mostly west to north-westerly which favours near or below average temperatures.  If there were a fair number of outputs showing a pronounced ridge of high pressure moving over part of the British Isles, rather than moving close by to the south-west, I would be more likely to back a "fine and warm for at least some" assessment.

 

However, this weekend apart, the charts aren't exactly screaming "washout" to me either and with the ridging high pressure not too far away there is a fair chance that we'll see short-lived interludes of warm sunshine at times, like the one that many of us are currently experiencing.  The positioning of the high is also pretty favourable for the likelihood of Glastonbury being in one of the least prone areas of the country for rain-related disruption.

 

As for the weekend itself, my assessment yesterday of wet and windy weather spreading through on Friday night still stands, but the depth and positioning of the low pressure on Saturday and Sunday, and the amount of embedded frontal activity, will determine whether we get a dull wet weekend, or a showery one with some brighter intervals in between.  Today's runs have certainly moved towards the dull wet scenario though.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Summer Sun]

Following on from this, nice summer forecast on the updated seasonal from CMA and looking good for July on JMA.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201306.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

Interesting as this is completely the opposite to what the met office have in there longer range outlook today frankly its about as bad as it can get

 

 

 

There is currently no strong indications of any weather type to dominate the UK during the period. However temperatures are more likely to be below average, especially in the south of the UK. There are no strong signals of anomalous rainfall during this period, although parts of the south may be wetter than average.

 

[Downpour]

I tend to agree more with Tamara's post here rather than the assessments of fine and warm weather in the south on the previous page. While the longer-range outputs have high pressure exerting more of an influence on the UK's weather, the high is mostly shown as ridging across to the south and this is likely to allow systems and disturbances to influence our weather around its north-eastern flank, providing relatively changeable (though not necessarily particularly wet) conditions. Winds are also likely to be mostly west to north-westerly which favours near or below average temperatures. If there were a fair number of outputs showing a pronounced ridge of high pressure moving over part of the British Isles, rather than moving close by to the south-west, I would be more likely to back a "fine and warm for at least some" assessment.However, this weekend apart, the charts aren't exactly screaming "washout" to me either and with the ridging high pressure not too far away there is a fair chance that we'll see short-lived interludes of warm sunshine at times, like the one that many of us are currently experiencing. The positioning of the high is also pretty favourable for the likelihood of Glastonbury being in one of the least prone areas of the country for rain-related disruption.As for the weekend itself, my assessment yesterday of wet and windy weather spreading through on Friday night still stands, but the depth and positioning of the low pressure on Saturday and Sunday, and the amount of embedded frontal activity, will determine whether we get a dull wet weekend, or a showery one with some brighter intervals in between. Today's runs have certainly moved towards the dull wet scenario though.

Agreed, the movement of the high would suggest benign rather than warm conditions on Glasto weekend on a slack westerly flow. Not too bad am outlook following this weekend's fun and games and all to play for as we move into summer proper.

[stainesbloke]

Interesting as this is completely the opposite to what the met office have in there longer range outlook today frankly its about as bad as it can get

Hopefully the met office longer range outlook is wrong. They have been rather poor with forecasts of late. Today here in the SE it's 6C lower than the predicted max of 26C, pretty much total cloud cover all day and no storms, as opposed to the forecast.

[johnholmes]

Hopefully the met office longer range outlook is wrong. They have been rather poor with forecasts of late. Today here in the SE it's 6C lower than the predicted max of 26C, pretty much total cloud cover all day and no storms, as opposed to the forecast.

If only If only folk would actually quote what was predicted, the SE (including London) area had this this morningToday:Often cloudy, but still some bright or sunny intervals will occur. Feeling very warm and humid away from the cooling coastal sea-breezes. Scattered showers will arrive, mainly this morning, with some heavy showers possible. Risk of patchy coastal fog developing. Maximum temperature 25 °C.note the often cloudy and the max of 25C for the whole area, if you zoomed in to your own area I think, its now updated but I believe the prediction was absolute max of 22-23C, Heathrow is showing 21C.As I say repeatedly 2-3C +/- is looked on as a correct forecast, so they were about 4C out?I knock them when they do things wrong but I would like to see folk being accurate in their quotations and which source it came from. Oddly enough the local TV and National BBC can be different from what the web page shows-daft I know but there it is.Their 6-15 and 16-30 is not that far out when I do occasional checks countrywide in my view, if they are again I post that. Edited June 18, 2013 by johnholmes

[stainesbloke]

If only If only folk would actually quote what was predicted, the SE (including London) area had this this morningToday:Often cloudy, but still some bright or sunny intervals will occur. Feeling very warm and humid away from the cooling coastal sea-breezes. Scattered showers will arrive, mainly this morning, with some heavy showers possible. Risk of patchy coastal fog developing. Maximum temperature 25 °C.note the often cloudy and the max of 25C for the whole area, if you zoomed in to your own area I think, its now updated but I believe the prediction was absolute max of 22-23C, Heathrow is showing 21C.As I say repeatedly 2-3C +/- is looked on as a correct forecast, so they were about 4C out?I knock them when they do things wrong but I would like to see folk being accurate in their quotations and which source it came from. Oddly enough the local TV and National BBC can be different from what the web page shows-daft I know but there it is.Their 6-15 and 16-30 is not that far out when I do occasional checks countrywide in my view, if they are again I post that.

So has anywhere in the SE reached 25C?

[johnholmes]

nope

Charlwood the highest on Wx Online at 23C

Edited June 18, 2013 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

So has anywhere in the SE reached 25C?

unlikely, it's currently a sunny 22c in kent, max in london was 21c, currently 20c and cloudy, in dagenham it's only 19c

 

Max in london tomorrow is expected to be a humid 26c.

 

Leeds is warmer than london right now, sunny and 21c. wakefield is currently 23c with sunny periods.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

nopeCharlwood the highest on Wx Online at 23C

charlwood is down to 17c now, looking forward to this 1 day heatwave.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Frosty039

[stainesbloke]

Quite laughable really how my location has again failed to even reach even average max temps today in a supposedly 'hot and sultry' spell. I'm sure if the cloud was absent it would have been pretty steamy. Getting boring scratching around for any decent summer conditions or some exciting showers/storms. Rarer than hens teeth these days, hopefully the pattern will change soon. Unlikely, whilst the jet stays in its semi-permanent 10 degree+ displacement south.

[Summer Sun]

GFS is going for a high of 28c tomorrow this I feel is going to be all down to cloud cover if it breaks for long enough in the afternoon it's possible if it don't mid 20's seems more likely

 

 

By Thursday temperatures start to fall back

 

 

On Friday it becomes warmer across many parts with some rain likely we can see whats coming on Saturday whats over Ireland is a big clue

 

 

And sure enough come Saturday the wash out commences

 

http

 

Sunday doesn't look much better either

 

Edited June 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Costa Del Fal]

Im really not encouraged by the charts. Any ridging looks very weak and temporary and more and more models seem keen on slow moving lows and troughs just t our NE brining the usual cool nastiness towards us. To me the charts by the day are looking more like the last few junk of summers. These charts are not normal again. The CFS has totally backed away too from a settled July to something very cool and unsettled. Not to say there wont be the odd warmer day but right now, very unimpressed.

[Tony27]

unlikely, it's currently a sunny 22c in kent, max in london was 21c, currently 20c and cloudy, in dagenham it's only 19c

 

Max in london tomorrow is expected to be a humid 26c.

 

Leeds is warmer than london right now, sunny and 21c. wakefield is currently 23c with sunny periods.

there we go i told you it is not always hottest in the south and east like people tend to stereotype, and surprise surprise the GFS has overcooked temps yet again it is only 19c and cloudy here, so a typical average summers day, heatwave what heatwave?

 

im not surprised at all though tbh im only a novice but it don't take michael fish to work out what the conditions would probably be like today under cloud cover i've seen it time and time again, if only the models had a brain in them they would stop overdoing things all the time

Edited June 18, 2013 by Tony27

[stainesbloke]

Im really not encouraged by the charts. Any ridging looks very weak and temporary and more and more models seem keen on slow moving lows and troughs just t our NE brining the usual cool nastiness towards us. To me the charts by the day are looking more like the last few junk of summers. These charts are not normal again. The CFS has totally backed away too from a settled July to something very cool and unsettled. Not to say there wont be the odd warmer day but right now, very unimpressed.

Me too, there always seem to be 'hints' of high pressure ridging in in FI at t240 but this always is replaced by troughing nearer the time. A pattern repeated over the last 6 summers to varying degrees. The jet is the key I feel, and it's constant position well south of where it should be. Until that changes....more cold, cloud and wind.

[Summer Sun]

Some quite frankly awful charts in FI from GFS tonight

 

Summer lol thats a laugh!

 

[bradymk]

there we go i told you it is not always hottest in the the south and east like people tend to stereotype, and surprise surprise the GFS has overcooked temps yet again it is only 19c and cloudy here, so a typical average summers day, heatwave what heatwave?im not surprised at all though tbh im only a novice but it don't take michael fish to work out what the conditions would probably be like today under cloud cover i've seen it time and time again, if only the models had a brain in them they would stop overdoing things all the time

maybe the GFS underestimated cloud cover rather than overcooked temperatures. If you don't like the GFS temps, why not look at a high res model which is much more accurate. Also, high res showing a noteworthy area of heavy thundery rain for parts of SE England tomorrow morning.

[AWD]

I do feel sorry for Bottesford though!

[Tony27]

maybe the GFS underestimated cloud cover rather than overcooked temperatures. If you don't like the GFS temps, why not look at a high res model which is much more accurate. Also, high res showing a noteworthy area of heavy thundery rain for parts of SE England tomorrow morning.

well we will see if we get any thunderstorms or thundery showers, a lot of the time it just stay cloudy and dry and the breakdown is tame, i know we always want to look for extreme weather but 95% of the time the models over do thunderstorms and heat a bit like they over do cold and snow

i can't understand how people can defend these models time and time again, i have no problem with long range forecasting if its wrong as that is pure guesswork, but short term yes when it is consistently wrong like it has been for the past few weeks for my location, if i do get to 26c and see some thundery showers tomorrow or thursday then i will give them credit

Edited June 18, 2013 by Tony27

[Costa Del Fal]

Some quite frankly awful charts in FI from GFS tonight

 

 

Oh wow, those are bad. Every run is fast beginning to resemble the last 6 rubbish summers. Bad outlook unless your a duck imo. Very cool and wet and as usual only for the UK and the fringes of other countries around us. Even with low heights around Greenland we still have LP directed at us. Why is the Azores high just refusing to make an effort to budge!!! With the same problems as the last few summers look to be arising, Im ever more convinced that we could face many more summers like this along with cold winters but that is for another thread. Any Azores ridging has become very rare.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Blizzards

[stainesbloke]

Some quite frankly awful charts in FI from GFS tonight

Summer lol thats a laugh!

A horror show indeed! Not in a good way either. Still time for things to change. Yes, get worse!!! LOL

[Summer Sun]

A horror show indeed! Not in a good way either. Still time for things to change. Yes, get worse!!! LOL

 

Indeed on the 06z run high pressure was now its low pressure another words GFS hasn't got a clue what it wants to do

 

One consolation is the ECM and GFS ensemble run's from this morning

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational run looks much more unsettled than the 6z in FI with only a few fine days in an otherwise unsettled outlook, tomorrow looks fine with long sunny spells and becoming hot and humid in the southeast with 26-28c and nearer 22-24c further to the north and west but then thundery outbreaks spreading north with perhaps an organised area of thundery rain rumbling it's way northwards across england and wales, the southeast may escape but is still at risk of thundery showers pushing up from the near continent, scotland and n.ireland dry and bright but with the thundery rain further south pushing up later on thursday and some showery rain for the north and west. Friday looks cooler with sunshine and heavy showers, a band of heavy rain and strong winds pushing north and east across the uk on saturday followed by a clearance to sunshine and heavy showers, more heavy showers and sunny spells on sunday, monday and tuesday followed by a window of fine weather for the south as a ridge of high pressure pushes east off the atlantic, the ridge then subsides southeastwards with another vigorous depression heading in to bring another spell of wet and windy weather at the end of June into early July.

[stainesbloke]

Indeed on the 06z run high pressure was now its low pressure another words GFS hasn't got a clue what it wants to do

One consolation is the ECM and GFS ensemble run's from this morning

Yes, some small crumbs of hope with those ensembles, but even they are showing a W-NW flow. Never a warm direction and again prone to trough disturbances.