Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Kentspur]

Like the sound of this, living in the south east of England Up to 30c Wednesday and I'm going fishing;-) then pressure rising from the south west next week& I'm off to Devon this time next week! Till the months end:-)ECM 12z mean looks supportive for a substantial pressure rise from the southwest by day 10. The difference between this and last summer is quite evident with a quick return to settled conditions for the southern half of the uk being indicated by the ECM after a very unsettled weekend. Still no sign of greenland high pressure forming, in complete contrast to this time last year.

[stainesbloke]

GFS and UKMO both model a horrid weekend....gales, cloud and below average temps, again. After that.....who knows? Hoping a decent pressure rise will start to show up soon!

[mushymanrob]

ECM 12z mean looks supportive for a substantial pressure rise from the southwest by day 10. The difference between this and last summer is quite evident with a quick return to settled conditions for the southern half of the uk being indicated by the ECM after a very unsettled weekend. Still no sign of greenland high pressure forming, in complete contrast to this time last year.

 

indeed, no sign of a greenland high steering the jet south of us, instead its the azores high thats doing that job

 

(or directly at us)

Edited June 18, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Frosty.]

Things are set to go bang across england & wales on thursday with widespread thunderstorms but today and tomorrow look generally fine and increasingly warm and humid, temperatures reaching 25c across southeast england this afternoon but generally 22c, there will be a few sharp showers pushing north today, a few across wales and the midlands but mainly across eastern and southeastern areas, perhaps a thundery shower around the wash later today and then thundery showers pushing up from the south across the southeast tonight and at first tomorrow but soon clearing and then tomorrow once again looks fine with long sunny periods and we will be importing hot and humid continental air across the south tomorrow with temperatures of 28-29c 83f across the southeastern quarter of england, nearer 23-26c further to the north and west but all the heat and humidity spells trouble for wednesday night and especially for thursday with torrential rain and storms and flash flooding, meanwhile, scotland and northern ireland are in the clear until thursday night and friday with generally fine and warm weather with sunny spells and temperatures closer to 20c 68f, just a few showers across northwestern areas and some mist lapping on to northern & eastern coasts, friday and the weekend looks unsettled with rain and showers across all parts of the uk and cooler.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Frosty039

[Geordiesnow]

Got too say, even though its still a bit early to pin point the details, the weekend does look a complete washout according to the models, and some hints from the GFS it could be quite a windy weekend also, only good news this may bring is that any persistant rain should move through quite quickly(although in these situations, they do tend to get stalled across Northern and Eastern parts of Scotland) and it replacement is sunshine and heavy showers.

 

Its quite funny that we been saying low heights tends to mean the jet stream is not necessarily over us yet when we do get lower heights this is the case and when heights are forecast to increase, the outlook settles down as this morning's ECM shows. No logic in the weather at all but the weather does look like its going to turn for the worse and the weekend does look quite dreadful it has to be said. 

[Sky Full]

I am still reading and learning from the comments posted by far more knowledgeable members than me but the recent posts mentioning the Jetstream got me wondering if this is the single most important factor in determining the shape of our weather?  The jet has been stuck over us, or south of us, for a long time and only briefly sweeps north allowing more southerly climatic influences to come our way.  The jet forecast for Saturday appears to me to show the low pressure system being dragged down over the UK whilst more benign weather is being forced away from us. Am I drawing the right conclusion from this chart?   If so, could we expect more southerly, continental weather to come our way if the jet was to move above the 60th parallel, for example?

 

If I am way off the mark here, just ignore me!  

 

 

 

 

[AWD]

For anyone interested in any potential thunderstorm activity over the next 48 hours or so, the convective thread is the best place to be with far more detailed posts in there explaining any potential.

It certainly isn't looking like a widespread event. Whilst I don't expect the below charts to verify exactly like this, it does show the specific regions affected come Wednesday afternoon/evening, which incidentally is the best time the high res charts offered up.

These go to show that south east England into East Anglia are at risk of thunderstorm activity;

These charts also supported by convergence areas, with DLS. Basically;

That isn't far out as things stand. The Skew-T for London shows the potential there, with instability growing;

But go further west to Cardiff and it's as safe as houses there;

Don't expect anything too widespread, although admittedly this could easily change. SE England into East Anglia are the "hotspots" for any thundery activity currently.

Looks like the Met Office also broadly agree with the above;

South and East of that warm front holds thundery potential.

Edited June 18, 2013 by AWD

[Gibby]

Hi folks. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday June 18th 2013.All models show a pool of hot air over the NW of Europe with a thundery Low on it's Western periphery over France. For the most part this stays across the channel though the far SE may see very warm conditions for a time tomorrow while the rest of England see pleasantly warm if humid weather. The weather should stay largely fine in slack pressure gradients today and tomorrow spare the odd burst of thundery rain in the SE. By Thursday a thundery low makes a more definite NE track across the South with a more pronounced spell of thundery rain followed by cooler and fresher conditions from the West later in the day. Friday then looks cooler and fresher everywhere with Westerly winds bringing cloud and rain in later to lead the UK into a cool and breezy weekend with rain or showers as Atlantic Low pressure parks itself over the UK.GFS then shows this Low moving slowly NE early next week and filling up allowing slack but High pressure conditions to take effect over Britain. So after showers early in the week, chiefly in the North drier weather will develop with less wind and sunny spells and it could feel pleasantly warm under these. Late in the week and following weekend the weather is shown to slide downhill again as Atlantic westerlies bring a series of troughs East in the brisk flow with rain at times for a brief while before pressure builds again at the end of the run with dry and bright weather taking hold.The GFS Ensembles show that the high uppers over the South currently last for another day or so before they fall below average briefly then recover to average levels for the rest of the period. Rainfall is expected to fall to sporadic amounts after the thundery rain at the end of the warm period and is indicative of quite benign conditions for most beyond this coming weekend.The Jet Stream continues to blow across the Atlantic and across the British Isles with the cut off feature to the South dissolving in 48 hours or so. Later in the period the flow weakens and although GFS doesn't really support any significant movement in the flow the orientation does turn slightly more SW to NE later which could allow High pressure to edge closer to Southern Britain in the distant future.UKMO today shows the weekend as unsettled and cool while Monday sees the legacy of this still affecting most as Low pressure lies over NE Britain with a cool and showery flow in it's wake as it slowly tracks NE.GEM today shows little respite from the cooler and unsettled conditions once they arrive before the weekend with the weekend depression moving slowly away early next week only to be replaced by a new one moving across the UK late in the run.NAVGEM today too shows little better prospects maintaining the weekend's Low in the proximity of the UK well into next week, centred near the far North at the end of the run with a breezy, cool and showery Westerly flow over Britain.ECM finally shows the low pressure moving away from Britain on Monday leaving a period of slack and rather cloudy Westerly winds which slowly back SW with High pressure ridging in close to the South with dry and brighter conditions developing here with warmer temperatures too. The North though does look like staying breezy and changeable next week and by the close of the run pressure is slowly falling again over the North and West of Britain.In Summary today the weather remains in a changeable state. It is far from a washout though and for many the weather will end up not having been too bad through the period. However, the weekend looks generally cool and at times breezy and wet while next week GFS and ECM offer something rather better at least for the South as the Jet realigns slightly and allows higher pressure close to the South. However, these changes are tentative and at a lengthy range currently so we will have to see how such changes develop over the coming days before we can definitively say that a pattern change is likely. Meanwhile let's enjoy the warmth of the coming 48 hours as it may be a while before we see uppers as high as currently over the South, anywhere in the UK.

[picog]

Judging by the ensembles, there is nothing especially warm and dry irrespective of living north or south of the Watford Gap.

[Summer Sun]

Well the weekend looks about as bad as it can get for summer wet and for some windy

 

 

Sunday doesn't look much better

 

[stainesbloke]

Well the weekend looks about as bad as it can get for summer wet and for some windy

Sunday doesn't look much better

Oh I don't know, there will be some pleasant milliseconds of sunshine in between the heavy, relentless drizzle and skies generally shadier than a used car dealer. Temps could hit a balmy 15C and it will feel positively summery if you are out of the storm force gales ripping past. Just don't stand near any trees or old buildings in case they collapse on you. It will feel especially warm inside with the heating on. Or inside a greenhouse or polytunnel, but the enjoyment of all that warmth could be tempered by the structure blowing away....

Do enjoy these TYPICAL UK summer conditions, everyone!

Edited June 18, 2013 by stainesbloke

[Frosty.]

Oh I don't know, there will be some pleasant milliseconds of sunshine in between the heavy, relentless drizzle and skies generally shadier than a used car dealer. Temps could hit a balmy 15C and it will feel positively summery if you are out of the storm force gales ripping past. Just don't stand near any trees or old buildings in case they collapse on you. It will feel especially warm inside with the heating on. Or inside a greenhouse or polytunnel, but the enjoyment of all that warmth could be tempered by the structure blowing away....Do enjoy these TYPICAL UK summer conditions, everyone!

Why are you being so sarcastic? you are always moaning.. it's just normal uk weather that the models are showing apart from the hot and sultry continental weather across the southeastern corner today but more especially tomorrow, thursday looks thundery across england & wales.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ensemble doesn't look too bad towards the end with a steady rise in pressure

 

 

GFS ENS brings it in quicker

 

 

The ECM monthly Birmingham ensemble shows temperatures staying below normal well into July

 

 

The temperature mean stays well below normal as well after a short lived warm up over the next few days

 

 

Rainfall drops down as we move into July as well hovering around average

 

[stainesbloke]

Why are you being so sarcastic? you are always moaning.. it's just normal uk weather that the models are showing apart from the hot and sultry continental weather across the southeastern corner today but more especially tomorrow, thursday looks thundery across england & wales.

 

 

Lol......just having a chuckle at the delightful charts that are on offer for the weekend, not a moan in sight

[Gael_Force]

Why are you being so sarcastic? you are always moaning.. it's just normal uk weather that the models are showing apart from the hot and sultry continental weather across the southeastern corner today but more especially tomorrow, thursday looks thundery across england & wales.

 

It might be normal in context of recent years but it's sure in hell not normal summer solstice weather in the context of my 60 odd years of UK existence.

[MP-R]

Besides the horrific chart of a low of 990mb on Saturday crossing the country, the GFS 00Z (not sure how reliable this particular run is) actually shows a much more settled week next week with plenty of warm sunshine on offer. As ever, it's just outside the reliable and things can change but perhaps a dry and fine final week of June could be on the cards after a cool blustery weekend.

[Frosty.]

It might be normal in context of recent years but it's sure in hell not normal summer solstice weather in the context of my 60 odd years of UK existence.

There is something for everyone on this morning's model output so far, warm, hot, humid, cool, wet, windy, sunny, showery, thundery..it's what makes the uk climate so interesting.

[stainesbloke]

There is something for everyone on this morning's model output so far, warm, hot, humid, cool, wet, windy, sunny, showery, thundery..it's what makes the uk climate so interesting.

 

Or WOULD make it so interesting, if we actually got any sunny, warm, hot, thundery weather instead of consistent cool, cloudy, windy crap. The temp just hit 19C here (cloudy, of course) so please excuse me whilst I rush off to hose myself down, I'm struggling with all this hot and sultryness!

[stainesbloke]

Besides the horrific chart of a low of 990mb on Saturday crossing the country, the GFS 00Z (not sure how reliable this particular run is) actually shows a much more settled week next week with plenty of warm sunshine on offer. As ever, it's just outside the reliable and things can change but perhaps a dry and fine final week of June could be on the cards after a cool blustery weekend.

 

Interesting signs of some rise in pressure next week, let's hope it's shown consistently over the next couple of days model runs.

[Bottesford]

The low is looking less deep with less rain/wind on the 06Z compared to the dire 00Z so perhaps a sign of improvement. 

Don't think I've ever followed the models so closely!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z shows high pressure ridging in from the southwest next week with the southern half of the uk becoming generally settled and pleasantly warm after the much cooler and more unsettled weekend, not as settled in the north next week but fine at times, the weather pattern becomes fairly mobile with high pressure to the south of the uk but occasionally unsettled across n.ireland & scotland with more exposure to atlantic lows passing quickly eastwards to the north of the BI but at least the PFJ is up near iceland, further into FI the azores/atlantic anticyclone begins to take control across many areas but remains centred just to the west, we really want to see the high migrate to the east to enable much warmer continental air to drift north but towards the end of the run it looks fine and pleasantly warm with temperatures into the low 70's F.

 

As for the next few days, it's only the southeast corner of england which will have the continental heat and highest humidity, 25c today in and around london and after a very muggy night with a few storms, tomorrow becoming very warm/hot with temps reaching 27-28c but away from the southeast hot zone, temperatures nearer 22c but even that will feel warm and humid. Wednesday night it looks like thundery rain will become widespread across england & wales and continue for most of thursday, there could be some local flooding if the rain persists for many hours or even flash flooding during any intense thunderstorms.

[shae]

The Gfs 06z shows high pressure ridging in from the southwest next week with the southern half of the uk becoming generally settled and pleasantly warm after the much cooler and more unsettled weekend, not as settled in the north next week but fine at times, the weather pattern becomes fairly mobile with high pressure to the south of the uk but occasionally unsettled across n.ireland & scotland with more exposure to atlantic lows passing quickly eastwards to the north of the BI but at least the PFJ is up near iceland, further into FI the azores/atlantic anticyclone begins to take control across many areas but remains centred just to the west, we really want to see the high migrate to the east to enable much warmer continental air to drift north but towards the end of the run it looks fine and pleasantly warm with temperatures into the low 70's F.

 

As for the next few days, it's only the southeast corner of england which will have the continental heat and highest humidity, 25c today in and around london and after a very muggy night with a few storms, tomorrow becoming very warm/hot with temps reaching 27-28c but away from the southeast hot zone, temperatures nearer 22c but even that will feel warm and humid. Wednesday night it looks like thundery rain will become widespread across england & wales and continue for most of thursday, there could be some local flooding if the rain persists for many hours or even flash flooding during any intense thunderstorms.

So currently looking positive for Glastonbury weekend?!

[Frosty.]

So currently looking positive for Glastonbury weekend?!

Hmmm, according to the 6z yes, although, I reckon the southern half of the uk looks like doing ok with repeated azores ridging so Glastonbury could be drier than recent years with most of the unsettled weather across northern britain. It's  lucky that Glastonbury isn't this weekend as it looks cool, windy and unsettled with a trough over the uk, next week looks like an improving picture though.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Frosty039

[Bottesford]

Yes it looks like this weekend is the one to avoid out of all the weather for the two weeks surrounding it. You couldn't make it up could you! Knew I should have got married in a warmer, drier country - which at the moment is the majority of the northern hemisphere! bah.

[Downpour]

Hmmm, according to the 6z yes, although, I reckon the southern half of the uk looks like doing ok with repeated azores ridging so Glastonbury could be drier than recent years with most of the unsettled weather across northern britain. It's  lucky that Glastonbury isn't this weekend as it looks cool, windy and unsettled with a trough over the uk, next week looks like an improving picture though.

Yes, while a long way off in forecasting terms, Glastonbury may actually be dry and warm this year (on current output). The question is how the site managers manage this weekend's rain – if indeed that rain does hit the SW badly. The track of that low is still far from certain IMO and we have seen major downgrades many times before.