Thunderstorm potential and activity for Wednesday 19th into Thursday 20th June 2013

[nitro_deluxe]

What was the tog thingy you said you had again Bliz

Ho hum and all that - back to the drawing board.

[Supacell]

Take it you mean this one?   Managed to get it with screenshot!

 

 

Nice one, yes that's it.

 

Regarding tomorrow and beyond. Where GFS has reduced the risk the NAE is showing some heavy precipitation in the west and east tomorrow, converging across the Midlands and N England during the evening..... then, the early hours of Friday morning has 75mm of rain for around Essex. Is that a mistake??

[Adi F]

The ridge of high pressure across the country needs to bugger off its just blocking all the interesting stuff. 

Edited June 19, 2013 by Adi F

[Eskimo]

Nice one, yes that's it.

 

Regarding tomorrow and beyond. Where GFS has reduced the risk the NAE is showing some heavy precipitation in the west and east tomorrow, converging across the Midlands and N England during the evening..... then, the early hours of Friday morning has 75mm of rain for around Essex. Is that a mistake??

Just looked, NAE wants to introduce some incredibly heavy rainfall for the far south-east. 

[Supacell]

Just looked, NAE wants to introduce some incredibly heavy rainfall for the far south-east. 

 

Its actually on the GFS too, but about 100 miles east across the Low Countries. Looks like a very complicated set up and the next 24-36 hours could bring a thunderstorm to anyone in England and Wales, but likewise there could be nothing. Radar watching all the way I feel.

 

Lincolnshire looks good on NAE and NAVGEM for some heavy stuff tomorrow afternoon, GFS shows it off the east coast after hitting the eastern strip of EA.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Supacell

[Arnie Pie]

Geting this kind of felling

[Adi F]

shameful

 

[todd1970]

Some amazing CG's on that Hamburg cam right now...wish you were here , damn right i do.   

[Arnie Pie]

shameful

 

Shows something being pulled across though

[nitro_deluxe]

A very sleepless night for some there! Saw some amazing footage in Kiel earlier, easily 40+ strikes per min at times..manic status MCS.

[Eskimo]

Shows something being pulled across though

Remnants of a decaying MCS, the one that was over France earlier this evening. 

[paul m]

Take it you mean this one?   Managed to get it with screenshot!

 

WISH you were here !!!!!!!!!

[Severe Blizzard]

Well they were. 18z reduces CAPE and looks to be another yawn-fest. I honestly do not remember a summer as bad as this one for storms. I do hope the pattern changes soon as its becoming tiresome. I would rather LP's off the Atlantic than what we currently have, at least they actually deliver some activity.

I can remember summers as bad as this one for missing out on thunderstorms and downgrades - 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008...I too am sick of this pattern every year - June is going to end up a very dry month here in Guildford unless there is any significant rain soon.I have lost count of the time 10 mm+ daily rainfalls have been forecast to be downgraded then the actual amount that falls is less than the downgraded amount, yet the weather is generally unsettled and dreary. If it can't rain / thunder, then some sunshine and pleasant warmth would be nice. Getting truly depressed with these summers. 2011 was enough and last year was even worse as local areas missed much of the 'excitement' that affected the rest of the U.K. (notably 28th June).I dislike summer these days as much as I disliked winters that repeatedly didn't deliver with snow and cold between 1988 and 2008. Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) should be renamed Summer Affective Disorder with the horror shows, hopelessness and predictable boredom the 'modern' summer brings without fail every year.

[Me & angel fiance]

I am also watching that one in hamburg.. have seen some nice clear CG's too. Impressive 

[Eskimo]

The last cracking storm I had with an amazing lightning show was 2006...7 years ago! 

[samadamsuk]

wouldn't be too surprised to see a line running ne through Weymouth start to develop from this point - radar looks like its trying to kick something off. Whether it'll be electrified if it does happen though -

[paul m]

Sorry im thick...... What are the chances for you lot down south now then

[ChezWeather]

Hamburg storm looks incredible! Those lucky Germans 

[Costa Del Fal]

Sorry im thick...... What are the chances for you lot down south now then

Zilch.

[nitro_deluxe]

Stuff on the continent is sapping every last bit of energy though...going to take some developing right now!

Lets see what tomorrow finally brings - so much potential, but as is often the case inTS development..winner takes all

[samadamsuk]

I put it at about 20% that I'll see a storm in Cirencester tonight -

[Staffordshire]

Does anyone that knows german know what i will have to search into youtube to find these storms tommorow?

[Ben Sainsbury]

Shower forming near Bath!? Convective potential? Formed out of nowhere...

Edited June 19, 2013 by interestingweather

[Adi F]

Does anyone that knows german know what i will have to search into youtube to find these storms tommorow?

 

Stürme is storm and Blitz is lightning 

[fergieweather]

Shower forming near Bath!? Convective potential?

Yup. But beware spurious (virga) returns. But we expect progressive N'ward elongation of showers now from the more pronounced area beneath vorticity strip evident in W Channel. Most active perhaps by 02-03z up M5 corridor, then easing W.