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Thunderstorm potential and activity for Wednesday 19th into Thursday 20th June 2013

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Bloody hell yeah get in! GFS 12 Z now showing a CAPE max tomorrow of 600 JKG and LI of -1 for my area. That's just surface based as well, which is a bonus considering everything before it will be elevated.

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Keraunic Seasoned

Keraunic

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
Posted

Im not going to mention  El Brummo...The Return

SHUT UP!!!! :O
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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted

You have Bloody jinxed it now

Going very dark on this cam http://www.vision-environnement.com/web/saint-jouin-bruneval-la-plage/

Thats why im not going to mention it..........did i say it out loudPosted Image

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

Posted Image

 

Look to the left side of the MCS.. see the cells breaking off the side there. I think it's one of those night where when things set off they really do!

Posted Image

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

You have Bloody jinxed it now

Going very dark on this cam http://www.vision-environnement.com/web/saint-jouin-bruneval-la-plage/

 

Great webcam this as anything seen on here will likely then hit the south coast of England about 2 hours later.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Bloody hell yeah get in! GFS 12 Z now showing a CAPE max tomorrow of 600 JKG and LI of -1 for my area. That's just surface based as well, which is a bonus considering everything before it will be elevated.

 

Li of -2 and 8/900 J/KG right over my house. Must be having a laugh?! Posted Image

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Getting very excited now especially after seeing those updated CAPE charts :O :-) :-)

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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted

Li of -2 and 8/900 J/KG right over my house. Must be having a laugh?! Posted Image

what does it show over my area??

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

what does it show over my area??

 

Posted Image

 

Remember this is surface based CAPE

Edited by CreweCold
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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

what does it show over my area??

 

For your location, Uckfield, it shows a maximum CAPE tomorrow of 70 JKG and LI of +1 at 09Z. 

I think the surface based CAPE is projected further north. 

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

Posted Image

 

NAE 0300-0900hrs Thurs

A lot of activity also indicated into the southwest as a line of thundery rain early thrs

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted (edited)

Adi, you going up the hill tonight?

 

I am going to radar watch and make a decision if things kick off. But if it kicks off then I will be out somewhere so maybe lol.Are you out to play and what time do you have to be in by? Do I have your number? does it end with 235?

Edited by Adi F
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poseidon Community Regular

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted (edited)

sky's gone quite dark here, with lower hanging clouds developing. Not sure whether to get excited or if it's just a thickening of the white stuff we've had for most of the day.

 

 

- Umm, may be just the latter

Edited by poseidon
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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

Latest satellite looks amazing, how wide can the MCS storm get! it plumes out at the sides expanding making it look like it's going northeast and northwest at the same time. I have drawn arrows where I think the MCS is going and to the left/west side of this new thunderstorms are breaking out-it's these that should also turn into large scale storms later.

post-11361-0-22109200-1371662629_thumb.j

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted (edited)

Yes things could get interesting in the northern half of the country tomorrow! Makes a change. Even though we won't get anything, a distant light show will be good enough for me!

 

Met Office aren't predicting that MCS to make it across the Channel by the looks of their precipitation forecast...

Edited by Convective
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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted (edited)

Heres some more convection over Brummo 

 

featuring several thousand tons of scaffolding, a squeaky lift and an RAF Merlin

 

I hope my frustrations are not showing throughPosted Image

 

http://youtu.be/ZQIEprAuHEc

Edited by Arnie Pie
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Well the BBC/METO seem to have eased off on the thunderstorm potential. Peter Gibbs spoke of the storms in France but labelled what southern areas may get as 'remnants' of these.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

sky's gone quite dark here, with lower hanging clouds developing. Not sure whether to get excited or if it's just a thickening of the white stuff we've had for most of the day.

 

bring on the S word, seems like my favourite weather type, the white stuff!

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

The MCS heading out of France will inevitably break up over the channel but some cells will make it across and even pep up for some. They certainly will be isolated, that's why i still don't buy the NAE precip chart.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted (edited)

What do I think?

Posted Image

just got in from work and catching up on posts, but this one got a big 'like'....good stuff PS Posted Image

 

(although, i might add, that it made sense more than your usual posts! Posted Image  (just kidding!)

Edited by ajpoolshark
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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

Yes things could get interesting in the northern half of the country tomorrow! Makes a change. Even though we won't get anything, a distant light show will be good enough for me!

 

Met Office aren't predicting that MCS to make it across the Channel by the looks of their precipitation forecast...

I'm keeping watch on developments to the west side of the MCS and also what develops when it.s moved away, I don't expect this one to be there until 4am when other/more thunderstorms move into the south early hrs.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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