Thunderstorm potential and activity for Wednesday 19th into Thursday 20th June 2013

[Nick F]

That right there Nick is one of the most beautifully written pieces of prose I've seen for many a year!!!!

 

It's good to see the big storms over N central France are also moving in a NW'erly direction, for now, though no doubt they'll somehow get steered towards the north then NE away before they get sniff of Blighty or fall apart!

Edited June 19, 2013 by Nick F

[Costa Del Fal]

NAE 12z has beefed up the risk considerably for something pushing up from the S tomorrow

 

12z...

 

 

Compared to the 6z

 

Looks great but as far as I can see there is nothing to support anything thundery over the UK with all that staying over the continent.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks great but as far as I can see there is nothing to support anything thundery over the UK with all that staying over the continent.

 

Anything that pushes up in a S-N direction has a chance of having a thundery/convective element to it.....even if it's merely elevated stuff. Who knows? The 12z GFS should give us a bit more guidance I'd have thought.

 

Remember, they're just the accumulation charts so offer a broad brush stroke. If the stuff is convective, locally more significant totals will not be well depicted by the NAE.

Edited June 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[124alex]

Lush day today! Sun has been out since early morning 26c

[Methuselah]

Anything that pushes up in a S-N direction has a chance of having a thundery/convective element to it.....even if it's merely elevated stuff. Who knows? The 12z GFS should give us a bit more guidance I'd have thought.

 

Remember, they're just the accumulation charts so offer a broad brush stroke. If the stuff is convective, locally more significant totals will not be well depicted by the NAE.

Indeed CC. I'd prefer some pyrotechnics but what I really want is rain!

[Raidan]

Although members posts are interesting and some forecasts have caught my eye I refuse to be reeled in like I have over the last few days! I have done 3 alnighters daylight to daylight and not even seen a drop of rain,Tonight its watch the footy and go to bed this storm starved zombie seriously got some sleep to catch up on,good luck all

[Captain Shortwave]

Lucky old french eh. Looks like there is a monster of a storm near Paris/ Le Mans according to radar.

Worth watching as it's currently moving NNW

Edited June 19, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Panayiotis]

Lucky old french eh. Looks like there is a monster of a storm near Paris/ Le Mans according to radar.

Worth watching as it's currently moving NNW

Yes, dont know if you saw but this webcam was posted earlier:

http://www.earthcam.com/france/paris/

[Cheshire Freeze]

Here's the actual precipitation chart for midday tomorrow. Looks like it may be suggestive of convective activity?

 

[Eskimo]

Here's the actual precipitation chart for midday tomorrow. Looks like it may be suggestive of convective activity?

 

Hard to tell, looks like your average band of moderate rain. 

[weatherobsuk]

The expanse of the french cell is also of note, if you look at the loop from just half an hour ago it shows just how quickly its moving northwards. From Lydd up to the Wash is where i'd be situating myself for chasing however tomorrow looks better for us here in the north so will have to make-do with whatever anvil crawlers are on the horizon for tonight.

 

Having an almost undisturbed view to the south at just under 1000ft means in the past i've seen the tops of cells as far away as Cambridge (150 miles by road), so here's hoping.

[Harry]

Hard to tell, looks like your average band of moderate rain. 

 

Doesn't resemble much of a band to me...looks more like a giant MCS hahahahahaha!!!!!!!

 

To be honest, there are fronts around tomorrow but that does not suggest bands of atlantic style frontal mess. Showery bands are more likely IMO, which is suggested by the dark blue zones in places. Furthermore, I would steer away from moderate rain and edge more towards heavier stuff. Storms are forecast over the continent and the blues denoted there are no different to ours.

[paul m]

The expanse of the french cell is also of note, if you look at the loop from just half an hour ago it shows just how quickly its moving northwards. From Lydd up to the Wash is where i'd be situating myself for chasing however tomorrow looks better for us here in the north so will have to make-do with whatever anvil crawlers are on the horizon for tonight.

 

Having an almost undisturbed view to the south at just under 1000ft means in the past i've seen the tops of cells as far away as Cambridge (150 miles by road), so here's hoping.

RIGHT storm watching party at Snow_Joke's place then

[Cheshire Freeze]

...looks more like a giant MCS hahahahahaha!!!!!!!

 

 

Yes, TBH it does.

 

Means nothing though as it could be gone come the next run!

Edited June 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[Eskimo]

http://www.earthcam.com/france/paris/

 

Looking eerie with the storm very close, lightning now visible!!

Edited June 19, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[Harry]

Yes, dont know if you saw but this webcam was posted earlier:

http://www.earthcam.com/france/paris/

 

Paris is about to get slammed...beautiful green sky approaching. (phwoar, just saw huge flash over the Eiffel Tower...am so so so so jealous!!)

Anyone know what direction that cam faces (save your 'towards the Eiffel Tower' responses, merci buckets!!)

Edited June 19, 2013 by Harry

[weatherobsuk]

Going by the storm direction it looks to be facing near-direct south right towards the mass of developing MCS cells.

[AWD]

Even Ian's in on the fun;

"Paris about to be walloped by a mothership-scale MCS with lots of lightning. Gonna be spectacular up the Eiffel Tower!!"

[Eskimo]

Paris is about to get slammed...beautiful green sky approaching. (phwoar, just saw huge flash over the Eiffel Tower...am so so so so jealous!!)

Anyone know what direction that cam faces (save your 'towards the Eiffel Tower' responses, merci buckets!!)

South

[Paul]

We've just put an extra server online for the forum in readiness for any storms, so probably means a damp squib now 

[lfcdude]

Even Ian's in on the fun;

"Paris about to be walloped by a mothership-scale MCS with lots of lightning. Gonna be spectacular up the Eiffel Tower!!"

 

 

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweathernow

Models will struggle to synthesise behaviour of the huge MCS over France as it moves NW tonight into Thurs AM. A major forecast headache...

 

 

Anything to play for i think

[Neilsouth]

http://www.earthcam.com/france/paris/

 

Looking eerie with the storm very close, lightning now visible!!

 

Woaa that sky!

[Harry]

 

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweathernow

Models will struggle to synthesise behaviour of the huge MCS over France as it moves NW tonight into Thurs AM. A major forecast headache...

 

 

Anything to play for i think

 

 

Ian Fergusson still think NW movement - looking at the precip it looks as if its slightly shifting more northerly at the moment....again, fingers crossed he is spot on!!!!

[nitro_deluxe]

Worth also noting circa 50mph gusts associated with Paris Ts, reported in Melun..lively!

[weatherobsuk]

Some lively SLWs as evident below the base of the Eiffel Tower, with tree's in full leaf across Europe it's going to be a mess to clear up with such SLWs being reported and now visually confirmed aswell.