Thunderstorm potential and activity for Wednesday 19th into Thursday 20th June 2013

[storm1080]

Parents reported from La Rochelle that hundreds of cars were damaged by golf ball size hailstones start of the week...

 

What are the isolated strong. but tiny. Raintoday radar returns north of the channel islands?

[Harry]

C France starting to resemble a nuclear exercise!!!

 

Contrary to the flow of all cloud around it, those cells appear to have a NE track based on the satellite imagery, despite the lightning overlay pattern suggesting NW.

[Coast]

C France starting to resemble a nuclear exercise!!!

 

Contrary to the flow of all cloud around it, those cells appear to have a NE track based on the satellite imagery, despite the lightning overlay pattern suggesting NW.

 

[CaptainSlack]

Would be nice to get a storm soon. Its been too long. Its boiling hot here in notts and ive got a killer headache.

This is the sky at the minute.

Good luck all,

Joey.

[nitro_deluxe]

Parents reported from La Rochelle that hundreds of cars were damaged by golf ball size hailstones start of the week... What are the isolated strong. but tiny. Raintoday radar returns north of the channel islands?

Interesting report! Most likely anaprop...ghost type radar returns? either that or dozens of boats, dinghies etc trying to get closer to the action lol.

[paul m]

I have given this weeks so far pathetic weather a name EL DISSAPOINTO

[Supacell]

This is the BBC regional forecast for Kent and Sussex.....

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/me1

 

Mmmmm.....Hmmmmmm...............

 

Have there been any NMM/NAE model updates this afternoon? 

 

Mmmmm..... Hmmmmmmm..... indeed, wouldn't mind a bit of her 

 

Still would prefer a good storm though. Currently 23c/13c here so feeling pleasant with a feels like temperature of 26c. Well pleasant if you ignore the ridiculous levels of pollen. Looks pretty juicy over the SE quarter of the UK with dps in the mid teens.

[Panayiotis]

Interesting develops here in Cardiff, with these clouds starting of as small cumulus, now they have increased in size and become considerably darker...

 

 

Edited June 19, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Tom Jarvis]

Nearly completely overcast now in Sussex

[Neilsouth]

Come to pappa!

[Eskimo]

I have given this weeks so far pathetic weather a name EL DISSAPOINTO

This goes into the Netweather hall of name fame with 'Frenchie'

If anyone wasn't around last August, we all called a particular MCS 'frenchie', it had traveled all the way up France with explosive activity and then died in the channel, we were all gutted. 

[Coast]

I have given this weeks so far pathetic weather a name EL DISSAPOINTO

 

 

'El ausente' - The missing one

[AWD]

Couple of weather warnings out from the Met Office for South West England;

And South East England;

And a recent snippet from Ian Fergusson;

"Further lively thunderstorm developments heading up NNW towards #lemans area over next few hours. Torrential downpours possible."

Edited June 19, 2013 by AWD

[Supacell]

 GFS shows something quite heavy developing over the northern Home Counties this evening and spreading NW across the Midlands overnight. Following on is some decent SBCAPE across Central parts tomorrow - the highest CAPE of this spell. I wonder if it will still be there on the 12z though.

 

It would make sense for a huge storm to develop across the middle of England tomorrow being as there is no weather warning from the met office for here  

[paul m]

 GFS shows something quite heavy developing over the northern Home Counties this evening and spreading NW across the Midlands overnight. Following on is some decent SBCAPE across Central parts tomorrow - the highest CAPE of this spell. I wonder if it will still be there on the 12z though.

 

It would make sense for a huge storm to develop across the middle of England tomorrow being as there is no weather warning from the met office for here  

Those greedy buggers in Lincs would nick it though

[Harry]

Come to pappa!

 

Certainly the birth of an MCS there and a vigorous one at that!! 

 

Again, the windfields would suggest its in the bag for us...fingers crossed if not it puts on a spectacular show as it skims past our shores

[Harry]

Couple of weather warnings out from the Met Office for South West England;

image.jpg

And South East England;

image.jpg

And a recent snippet from Ian Fergusson;

"Further lively thunderstorm developments heading up NNW towards #lemans area over next few hours. Torrential downpours possible."

Hmm...note the huge MetO caveate there...many could stay dry eh!!

 

Curious as to Ian Fergusson's thoughts for these bad boys to our South...clearly his view is a NNW movement which if so wurrhheeheee!!!

[kath16]

Those greedy buggers in Lincs would nick it though

chance would be a fine thing lol

[weatherobsuk]

As those who went chasing in Lincs know 2 years ago, you can have CAPE values reaching well into above-potential and the models showing everything kicking off within the timespan of 12 hours. You arrive in the boxed area under 24'c sweltering heat and humidity, then all that shows up is one measly shower and not even a rumble.

 

Some of my best thunderstorm moments have happened when the models were predicting next to nothing happening, easy come and easy go.

[Cheshire Freeze]

 GFS shows something quite heavy developing over the northern Home Counties this evening and spreading NW across the Midlands overnight. Following on is some decent SBCAPE across Central parts tomorrow - the highest CAPE of this spell. I wonder if it will still be there on the 12z though.

 

It would make sense for a huge storm to develop across the middle of England tomorrow being as there is no weather warning from the met office for here  

 

Yes looks like some slight wind convergence along that line of CAPE pushing N tomorrow aswell

 

 

 

Any breaks away from that mass of rain pushing up across Wales could spark off some surface based storms tomorrow PM I would have thought.

Edited June 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[Supacell]

As those who went chasing in Lincs know 2 years ago, you can have CAPE values reaching well into above-potential and the models showing everything kicking off within the timespan of 12 hours. You arrive in the boxed area under 24'c sweltering heat and humidity, then all that shows up is one measly shower and not even a rumble.

 

Some of my best thunderstorm moments have happened when the models were predicting next to nothing happening, easy come and easy go.

 

I can remember many an occasion like this and has been the cause of a number of busts for me.

 

El Gordo two years ago in June. GFS charts had over 2000j/kg of CAPE and I spent all day in 30c heat to see nothing. The next day (despite the CAPE  being forecasted to have been swept into the near continent) there were severe thunderstorms in the area I had been the day before. Gutted doesn't even come close.

[Eskimo]

If only? 

 

[Supacell]

Yes looks like some slight wind convergence along that line of CAPE pushing N tomorrow aswell

 

 

It looks like a trough as shown on the Met Office pressure chart below. 

 

 

www.metoffice.gov.uk

Edited June 19, 2013 by Supacell

[Methuselah]

It looks like a trough as shown on the Met Office pressure chart below. 

 

met office fax.jpg

 

www.metoffice.gov.uk

Come to Daddy!!!

[Eskimo]

http://www.earthcam.com/france/paris/

Watch this closely in the next 30-60 minutes, massive lighting show coming for Paris.