Thunderstorm potential and activity for Wednesday 19th into Thursday 20th June 2013

[Captain Shortwave]

Without posting a shed load of NW extra NMM charts, I can tell you (if you haven't looked already) that they look similar to last night in both numerical and geographical terms. Let's hope today gets a little hotter than yesterday and the heat transfers into the darker hours.

The issue is the storms last night did deliver, just to the cod in the North Sea. We need some storms to form further west in France or simply their track to be North instead of North East and managing to thread themselves through the Dover Straight

[Tom Jarvis]

Looks like the cell in France has broken up

[liambailey09]

Don't know if anyone has posted this today, but just seen this on ukweatherworld http://www.kentonline.co.uk/east_kent_mercury/news/Dramatic-moment-lightning-strikes-off-2170/

[Chris.R]

Well the Met may still say the risk is their, but the BBC are having non of it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast-video/21416743

Nothing for anyone according to that, just showery rain.

[MP-R]

Could someone please shed some light on why the storms were quite happy to take a route over the cold Northe Sea instead of the warm UK haha!

[Mapantz]

The Met Office have a yellow warning out for much of the South East.

Edit: should have said East Midlands & East Anglia too.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&fcTime=1371596400

Edited June 19, 2013 by Mapantz

[VillagePlank]

If the sunshine can get through, a chance of some home grown storms,

 

 

Some SBCAPE and some shear at 850hPa, but insolation looks key to triggger home-grown ones, today, but, I would say, not much chance and isolated and far between if it does happen.

 

The Met Office have a yellow wsrning out for much of the South East.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&fcTime=1371596400

 

Yep - lowest risk possible, but makes it to a warning because of the potential impact.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Wet'n'Dry]

Well the Met may still say the risk is their, but the BBC are having non of it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast-video/21416743

Nothing for anyone according to that, just showery rain.

Chris I was under the belief that the BBC forecasters are employed by the METo, therefore their forecasts should be identical.

[Captain Shortwave]

If the sunshine can get through, a chance of some home grown storms,

 

Some SBCAPE and some shear at 850hPa, but insolation looks key to triggger home-grown ones, today, but, I would say, not much chance and isolated and far between if it does happen.

 

skew-t.gif

 

Yep - lowest risk possible, but makes it to a warning because of the impact.

 

Reflects the bbc forecast, just a few showers, light/moderate rainfall.

Big storms forecast over Northern France today, orange warning out there. Issue is their track is set to pass through Calais so essentially taking the same track as last nights storms. We could be witnessing another North sea train unless some big cells break out in North West France.

[Coast]

If the sunshine can get through, a chance of some home grown storms

 

 

 

 

[Chris.R]

Chris I was under the belief that the BBC forecasters are employed by the METo, therefore their forecasts should be identical.

 

 

Well yes, that is what I thought, but the fact is they are not the same. Maybe the BBC have more recent data or something, I don't know, but quite confusing in any case. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

sun is blazing here.. and that temp is rocketing woooooooooooooooooooo

[Eskimo]

Well yes, that is what I thought, but the fact is they are not the same. Maybe the BBC have more recent data or something, I don't know, but quite confusing in any case. 

MetOffice should have the very latest data of any organisation in the UK, they pay millions for it!

[Coast]

Ever felt like there's a party going on at the neighbours and you're not invited?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Eskimo]

Substantial cloud clearance to the south!

[Chris.R]

Well here is the met office's take on things for the UK as a whole.


Headline:

Warm and humid. Showers for southeast England and northwest Scotland

Today:

Heavy and thundery showers across southeast England clearing through the morning. Otherwise most parts remaining fine and dry, apart from a few showers, mainly across northwest Scotland and southern England. Feeling warm and humid, particularly in the far southeast.

Tonight:

Further showers spreading into southern and central areas through the evening, which once again may be locally heavy and thundery across southeastern England. Rain also spreading into northwestern parts later.

Thursday:

Rather cloudy with outbreaks of rain across many parts, and an increasing risk of some torrential and thundery downpours across southern and eastern England. Limited drier, brighter interludes in places.

Updated: 0338 on Wed 19 Jun 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

Note that this was only issued at 0300, were as the BBC forecast I just posted was from 0800. 

So who is using the latest data then?

Edited June 19, 2013 by Chris R

[sunnijim]

Hot and sunny now in Hastings,temps sky rocketing and humisery with it!Not a day for a suit.

[Southern Storm]

Sun out here also, every little helps!

[stainesbloke]

sun is blazing here.. and that temp is rocketing woooooooooooooooooooo

Yes it's great, at last, a very nice 24C here now. Should help with any storm building?

[Mapantz]

This makes pleasant viewing ..

 

I hope some of you get lucky either tonight or tomorrow.  

[Eye to the sky]

Something starting to happen here in the East Midlands.Big dark clouds starting to bubble up blocking out the sun.Most threatening I've seen for a fair few days,who knows....

[Coast]

If you can blow up the area over the UK, you will see the significant weather aviation chart for midnight tonight, has isolated, embedded CB's over the SE corner and some high level winds pushing NW:

 

Edited June 19, 2013 by Coast

[Wivenswold]

Not one to bash the Met Office really but even I'm starting to think that this has been a huge fail on their part and the BBC. It's also shown up how bad models are at predicting rainfall. Hopefully we'll all remember this next time we get a thundery forecast. 

 

It could pull round again, there is a chance for tomorrow but every forecast I've seen that's more than a day in advance for London or the SE has been utterly inaccurate. Including the usually flawless Ian Fergusson. 

[VillagePlank]

General rainfall seems to be well modelled by the major forecastors. The problem with convective raindall is that clouds are (much) much smaller than the model grid size - so, for instance, you have to parameterise convective parameters rather than model actual cloud based convection physics.

[Darren Bown]

There was some rainfall that moved across the SE this morning, but it was the intensity that the MetO got wrong, it was pretty intense until it hit land, then began to fizzle as it pushed NE over London area.