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Thunderstorm potential and activity for Wednesday 19th into Thursday 20th June 2013

Coast

By Coast
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Hmm...GFS is updating and is showing the MCS heading due North into Benelux before dissipating. Now, IMO GFS has the current MCS a little too far East.....not sure what everyone else thinks - the track is a bit more promising though, more N than NE yesterday.

 

Its a bit more keen to deliver precip tomorrow though, although the storm risk is a bit low.

 

Other models must be updating now surely...???

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Hmm...GFS is updating and is showing the MCS heading due North into Benelux before dissipating. Now, IMO GFS has the current MCS a little too far East.....not sure what everyone else thinks - the track is a bit more promising though, more N than NE yesterday.

 

I think we are down to radar and detectors now Harry. It's a bit like watching a race, we know who the runners are now, we just don't know which order (and which finishing line) they will come in.

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Wall cloud over Paris 

 

 

post-15503-0-42308400-1371656444_thumb.j

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

I think we are down to radar and detectors now Harry. It's a bit like watching a race, we know who the runners are now, we just don't know which order (and which finishing line) they will come in.

 

Yep, we've got what looks like an MCS being advertised on the NAE whereas the GFS seems to suggest a line of perhaps marginally severe surface based storms developing from E Anglia/SE England into the more southern parts of NW England and N Wales

Edited by CreweCold
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Yep, we've got what looks like an MCS being advertised on the NAE whereas the GFS seems to suggest a line of perhaps severe surface based storms developing from E Anglia/SE England into the more southern parts of NW England and N Wales

What - nothing?

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Newport 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Newport 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
Posted

That storm in France is incredible, it would pretty much cover the South of England.

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Chris R! Look at that CAPE tomorrow!

 

Looks like Paris is getting a battering now http://www.earthcam.com/france/paris/

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

I will, although I may wait until the charts I use update at around 1730.

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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted (edited)

Im of the opinion that the sharp NE turn of systems as soon as it leaves france (ie channel) over last couple of days, has today moved 50-100 miles north. But what do I know.

Edited by Biggin
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

MCS definitely spilling NW'wards with smaller storms firing behind it on the western flank. The majority of lightning however is reserving itself for the central/eastern flank of the storms.

 

Complex situation or what. Wont be long now before we see the anvils spreading in from France.

 

I will be arriving in Dymchurch by 8ish hopefully....fingers crossed :D sadly though while down there it will be virtually impossible for me to post here, as the signal is beyond hopeless :cray:

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Keep watching that Paris cam! Lightning every few seconds! Can't wait for that cluster to hit Paris soon! That will be incredible on the webcam!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Not sure how much you want to read into this one, but it's been all day coming and is KNMI/SatReps take on weather front movements for tonight and the early hours. What do you think???

 

Posted Image

Edited by Coast
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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Not sure how much you want to read into this one, but it's been all day coming and is KMNI/SatReps take on weather front movements for tonight and the early hours. What do you think???

 

 

What do I think?

Posted Image

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

Keep watching that Paris cam! Lightning every few seconds! Can't wait for that cluster to hit Paris soon! That will be incredible on the webcam!

I can't get on it !
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Not sure how much you want to read into this one, but it's been all day coming and is KMNI/SatReps take on weather front movements for tonight and the early hours. What do you think???

 

Posted Image

 

I'll be honest Coast Im not sure I'm getting much from it, lol...other than the wave in the moving eastwards. 

 

Pressure gradients though looking a little West to East for my liking just before the Channel 

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

I certainly wouldn't bother with the NAE precip charts no matter how inviting they look. They simply don't tie in with the MO's warnings, especially the one for Cornwall/Devon. I'd love it to be correct of course .. 

Edited by Mapantz
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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Good Luck Guys, Watching this unfold from the States, surely one of these systems is going to crash into good old blighty!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

What do I think?

Posted Image

 

Seems about the same to me!! :lol:!!!

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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

Here is my take on it. The storms start to cross the Channel then find out that duty free does not exist anymore so head off to EU headquarters to have a right old grumble about it  

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Good Luck Guys, Watching this unfold from the States, surely one of these systems is going to crash into good old blighty!

Bet you were laughing like dracula when you wrote this post! 

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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted

Good Luck Guys, Watching this unfold from the States, surely one of these systems is going to crash into good old blighty!

Just leaving the french coast Paul  http://www.sat24.com/en/gb?ir=true

Its seems to have sped up a bit or expanded northwards ?? One of the two.

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