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Thunderstorm potential and activity for Wednesday 19th into Thursday 20th June 2013

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

http://www.earthcam.com/france/paris/

Watch this closely in the next 30-60 minutes, massive lighting show coming for Paris.

 

That skyline is looking awesome for the Parisians....no expletive required to make clear how lucky I think they are!!!!!

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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted

The winds aloft are starting to move around so they are coming from the SE, this morning it was coming from the SW. 

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Yes looks like some slight wind convergence along that line of CAPE pushing N tomorrow aswell

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Any breaks away from that mass of rain pushing up across Wales could spark off some surface based storms tomorrow PM I would have thought.

 

Area of convergence above Medway tomorrow also :D

The winds aloft are starting to move around so they are coming from the SE, this morning it was coming from the SW. 

 

Indeed...however, as far as I am aware these winds are unlikely to have much impact on the trajectory of cross Channel storms....

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Area of convergence above Medway tomorrow also Posted Image

 

The whole area stretches from Kent to Merseyside by 6pm tomorrow.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Area of convergence above Medway tomorrow also Posted Image

 

:good:

 

Posted Image

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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

I can remember many an occasion like this and has been the cause of a number of busts for me.

 

El Gordo two years ago in June. GFS charts had over 2000j/kg of CAPE and I spent all day in 30c heat to see nothing. The next day (despite the CAPE  being forecasted to have been swept into the near continent) there were severe thunderstorms in the area I had been the day before. Gutted doesn't even come close.

I remember it well Posted Image

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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted (edited)

But wasn't this morning surface winds from the SE. Something was sending the MCS east up the channel. Wouldn't that be winds aloft? From my understanding winds aloft have the greater steering effect on storms than surface winds. .  

Edited by Adi F
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kath16 Newbie

kath16

Posted
Posted

Area of convergence above Medway tomorrow also Posted Image

 

Indeed...however, as far as I am aware these winds are unlikely to have much impact on the trajectory of cross Channel storms....

looks good what does it mean lol

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

The winds aloft are starting to move around so they are coming from the SE, this morning it was coming from the SW. 

 

Yes steering winds are S to SE'erly looking at the 500mb height on the chart below, so we may see some of the storms coming out of the France later:

 

post-1052-0-79574200-1371652815_thumb.pn

 

Troposphere well capped here across the SE despite some juicy air at the surface, been looking out towards all points from my 10th floor office in London and absolutely not convection as far as the eye can see through the haze this afternoon, just alot of hazy high cloud.

Edited by Nick F
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

That's for today Posted Image

 

I'm getting old.... Posted Image

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

I'm getting old.... Posted Image

Posted Image

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

But wasn't this morning surface winds from the SE. Something was sending the MCS east up the channel. Wouldn't that be winds aloft? From my understanding winds aloft have the greater steering effect on storms than surface winds. .  

 

Yes this is true. From what I gather you need to look at the upper wind direction to determine where storms are going to be steered and not winds at the surface.

Edited by Supacell
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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted

I noticed that the loop of the jetstream over france has disconected it`self  from  the uk jet.......That may effect events?

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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted

Had some CU pop up a couple of hours ago but they hit the cap and spread out now, no more blue sky here know. 

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

 

Posted Image

 

 

That's nice...... Posted Image

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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted (edited)

Yes this is true. From what I gather you need to look at the upper wind direction to determine where storms are going to be steered and not winds at the surface.

 

That was what I understood, Harry's answer to my post provoked my question. I think he is getting old.

Edited by Adi F
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Yes this is true. From what I gather you need to look at the upper wind direction to determine where storms are going to be steered and not winds at the surface.

 

I tend to look at the 500 hPa wind :)

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Yes steering winds are S to SE'erly looking at the 500mb height on the chart below, so we may see some of the storms coming out of the France later:

 

Posted Imagew500_18.png

 

Troposphere well capped here across the SE despite some juicy air at the surface, been looking out towards all points from my 10th floor office in London and absolutely not convection as far as the eye can see through the haze this afternoon, just alot of hazy high cloud.

 

That right there Nick is one of the most beautifully written pieces of prose I've seen for many a year!!!!

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

My prediction for tonight is still mostly rain and nothing else however perhaps the greatest chance of a few thundery cells into the south coast tonight but quickly fading as they move further inland hence just plain rain showers into tomorrow. Risk of storms for the midlands tomorrow afternoon though.

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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted

I know it has been 8 to 10 years since i was on the forecast team but other then the lack of storms the principles of the weather have not changed that much to my knowledge. lol

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

NAE 12z has beefed up the risk considerably for something pushing up from the S tomorrow

 

12z...

 

Posted Image

 

Compared to the 6z

 

Posted Image

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

The satellite images of N France at the moment are just epic.The lightning rate eyewatering!!!!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

The satellite images of N France at the moment are just epic.The lightning rate eyewatering!!!!

 

Posted Image

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