Thunderstorm potential and activity for Wednesday 19th into Thursday 20th June 2013

[Coast]

MCS off the Kent/Sussex coast?

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Absolutely shocking few days of thunderstorms for the whole of the UK. Even though the BBC mentioning thunderstorms and lively showers , I'm not convinced it will happen because Estofex have not issued a level or lightning area.

[Methuselah]

Very heavy rain...

[Captain Shortwave]

Raintoday painting the standard depressing picture. thunderstorms happily travelling up through the north sea sparing the South East ad just giving a few spots of rain. There is a small finger of heavier rain which seems to be affecting Beccles at the moment. Well it's breached the triangle of doom I guess

Edited June 19, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Coast]

No updated from ESTOFEX  and nothing from any of the other dedicated sites so far.

 

 

People are already hearing rumbles to the East and South, so what are the chances of something more substantial?

 

MLCAPE would suggest maybe not:

 

 

But this could be a home grown affair as SBCAPE is slightly better, although very patchy:

 

 

TT Index:

 

Edited June 19, 2013 by Coast

[Coast]

GFS charts would suggest it doesn't get very far North through this morning, 'current' situation on their models:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[stainesbloke]

No surprises to downgrades. This whole system needs to be a couple hundred miles west, allowing some proper warmth into the S/SE. I think there is a light westerly wind here nr Heathrow, not what we need. Oh well, later today may bring something other than a nervous breakdown!

[Coast]

No surprises to downgrades. 

 

I prefer to think of things as early forecasts + potential and more detailed analysis as events get closer and unfold, The weather is always going to do what it is going to do!

[Nick F]

Drove through the dregs (thundery rain) on the way to work this morning, now brightening up nicely.

 

Looks rather underwhelming on the GFS this morning for the next few days, with most activity remaining on the near continent, though NMM does build several 100 j/kg SBCAPE across the SE this afternoon which, with temps reaching 27C in the sun, could trigger some home-grown storms, though an EML aloft may provide too strong a cap for sfc based convection.

 

Chance that storms developing over France this afternoon may drift towards the SE tonight, though probably clipping Kent and Sussex.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Nick F

[Norfolk Sheep]

Look East forecast on the Beeb just now  - thundery showers this morning near the coast for Essex and Suffolk this morning, same again tonight. Norfolk gets nowt apparently. Showers on Thurs. Oh well, we might get a drop of rain out of this tomorrow, heaven knows we need it!

[Methuselah]

We certainly could do with a big fall of rain, NS...

[Coast]

Animating NMM's Surface CAPE for this afternoon into this evening, you can see where the small chance of something might be:

 

[Captain Shortwave]

 

Can't make it up really. The oil rig weather forums must be in meltdown right now.

[nanu]

 

Can't make it up really. The oil rig weather forums must be in meltdown right now.

Thats it... its the oil rigs that make us miss these storms every bloody time,,, bloomin buggers.. bet they have frenchies on them!!

[Flash Elvis]

Looking at current radar could be an interesting ride across the channel this morning??

[Harry]

Borderline devastated about how this is turning out AGAIN!!! 

To be at Dymchurch this morning - bet there's a good few rumbles and decent flashes there at the moment.

 

Am heading down there tonight in the hope of catching some flashes - I'm completely resigned to the fact this is the most we are going to get from this.

 

Was thinking in bed last night about the mega eastward shift of all of these events and can only put it down to stronger trade winds over the past few years - irrespective of what the pressure patters show, everything still swings NE these days staying over the continent. Was therefore rather un-shocked to hear that the MetO's current theories are that the Atlantic has been warmer than average which is likely to result in wetter summers potentially for the next 10 years...this I would suspect (not being a meteorologist) would lend weight to the argument that stronger trade winds are enhancing NE shift of these storm events!!! Given that most models handle this events well, accurately forecasting this motion, there must be ways of working back through to the calculations and identifying the root cause of this.

 

In any event, will plod through today feeling rather depressed and very realistic to our chances through this evening - realistically, zero!!

 

I am off tomorrow now to meet an engineer coming to look at our oven - was hoping for something interesting weather wise but even this now seems unlikely.

 

Latest FAX chart does show a trough anchored across the Channel this evening, spreading northwards overnight. Hopefully this feature will remain in place as its about the only chance I can realistically see us having.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Harry

[Coast]

Borderline devastated about how this is turning out AGAIN!!! 

To be at Dymchurch this morning - bet there's a good few rumbles and decent flashes there at the moment.

 

Am heading down there tonight in the hope of catching some flashes - I'm completely resigned to the fact this is the most we are going to get from this.

 

Watch out for the 'wet paint' Harry:

 

[Harry]

Tell me about it - what I cannot fathom is that despite favourable slack wind flows towards our shores, there is no desire whatsoever for the cells to track our way.

 

When you run the radar sequence, pretty much every cloud across France seems to want to track SE to NW, except the good stuff which churns North and swings NE.

 

Slight bit of hope I am clinging onto is the fact the sun is trying hard to stay out here and the humidity is well up. Beyond that, it's all rather tragic really - while historically our best storms happen late June through to August (July-August historically the better months for imports in my experience) I am still sensing 2013 could be another dire year!!!
 

Here's a bit from memory lane - one of our last decent imports (although even this was a largely Kent coast affair)

 

 

 

EDIT - Not coping with these sad times lol. Off to a meeting now, back around 1pm. Will have fingers tightly crossed for a miraculous change in the models.................. 

Edited June 19, 2013 by Harry

[Norfolk Sheep]

I think I might have to save that as a favourite

[nitro_deluxe]

Watch out for the 'wet paint' Harry:

Recognise this fellow? Not sure if he had a penchant for storms though...made me giggle out loud.

Edited June 19, 2013 by triple_x1

[Lauren]

Watch out for the 'wet paint' Harry:

That bad boy has been painted in several layers over my house for years now!

[Coast]

There is a bit of surface CAPE around mid afternoon, with half-decent lower lapse rates, but is the cap to much to break in the areas 'more' favoured?

 

 

 

 

[Southern Storm]

Well it was wall to wall sunshine this morning but now the high level cloud as rolled in here, which is a real shame

The sun may come out again but I wouldn't hold my breath, its funny how we have no problem

Importing cloud but the storms do their best to ovoid us, well that's how it appears to me!

We still have a lot of summer to go time is on our side

[PolarWarsaw]

3 chances, 3 duds. My prediction of not much if any activity for 95% of the country was incorrect, it was more like 100%. Terribly uninteresting week so far. Tonight and tommorrow looks poor on BBC forecast maps in comparison to what it did yesterday. You can almost guarantee there will be quite widespread storms this weekend under the cold front, just for the irony.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

 

Just thought I would point out the next thunderstorm building and approaching the Channel.. Pretty hefty one this and intensifying as it moves North