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Thunderstorm potential and activity for Wednesday 19th into Thursday 20th June 2013

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

Reason I set my alarm! (earlier than normal)

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted

I have positioned myself at goring on sea and can hear distant thunder whilst watching a cell cross the channel.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

Looks like a Kent clipper and if the mass of strikes north of Paris can survive then it may clip the eastern side of East Anglia too. Cells further west are no longer producing sferics according to V6 radar, although could re-develop on land.

 

Shows the storms can survive the cold sea though with a mass of storms out to the east of Kent, bodes well for later on..

Edited by Supacell
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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

Downgrade again on CAPE for today but an upgrade for tomorrow for most of Central and Southern England into the South Midlands. For the SE looks like an interesting 24 hours, I may be heading down there after work today.

 

Friday now looks good for the eastern side again too.

Edited by Supacell
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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

Amazing watching the storms explode on the satellite, something not seen so close to our shores for so long. 

I have done an animation to show this, looks impressive! 230am to 530am at 15 mins a frame - this morning.

First image is the larger file best for computers the second image is smaller file size should be better on the phones.

If you can't get animations to run then see images below which are the frames.

(bit wobbly as taken screen images) note-the animation should play fast if not on first run then on second loop. also both GIF animation files are the same just larger and smaller size.

post-11361-0-78076500-1371618139_thumb.g

 

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post-11361-0-52209600-1371618179_thumb.g

 

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Images below - 

post-11361-0-63706800-1371618247_thumb.j

post-11361-0-21462100-1371618250_thumb.j

post-11361-0-35167300-1371618252_thumb.j

post-11361-0-59508200-1371618254_thumb.j

post-11361-0-89707300-1371618256_thumb.j

post-11361-0-25129700-1371618259_thumb.j

post-11361-0-34988400-1371618261_thumb.j

post-11361-0-46904600-1371618263_thumb.j

post-11361-0-69628800-1371618265_thumb.j

post-11361-0-75144100-1371618267_thumb.j

post-11361-0-34022800-1371618270_thumb.j

post-11361-0-81765700-1371618272_thumb.j

post-11361-0-37803100-1371618275_thumb.j

--

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/#?tab=map&map=SatelliteIR&zoom=5&locId=350928&fcTime=1371574800&lon=-0.08&lat=51.51

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Sprites Seasoned

Sprites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK
Posted

If the storms are east of kent, (as they usually are) it doesnt bode too well lol, theyv'e gone.

Looks like a Kent clipper and if the mass of strikes north of Paris can survive then it may clip the eastern side of East Anglia too. Cells further west are no longer producing sferics according to V6 radar, although could re-develop on land. Shows the storms can survive the cold sea though with a mass of storms out to the east of Kent, bodes well for later on..

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited) · Hidden by ZONE 51, June 19, 2013 - put image in wrong place
Hidden by ZONE 51, June 19, 2013 - put image in wrong place

wrong thread are get today's one

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

If the storms are east of kent, (as they usually are) it doesnt bode too well lol, theyv'e gone.

 

I was more inferring to the fact the channel isn't killing them so any further storms that move up from France later may not be killed off either (and may be further west and so affecting more of the SE).

 

Still a very complicated situation though and it could be that tomorrow we just end up with heavy rain with storms out in the eastern channel and across the Low Countries.

 

(Sorry just realised the title of this topic, I should have put this in the other thread as I was talking about Thursday).

Edited by Supacell
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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

Thunderstorms this eve/tonight over France as shown on the NAE image here (ppn)

Posted Image

I expect those thunderstorms to move north early Thurs.

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Sprites Seasoned

Sprites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK
Posted

Yeah i think the convection will slide east, doubt it will develop far enough west to bother the uk now.

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

This evening is likely to feel much more different as the hot and humid air moves into the SE UK,  just showing these so you can see where the plume is. I expect large thunderstorms to develop over France this evening and head north it's these that I think would affect SE/EA and more west of southeast, more of the south.

Posted Image

as seen by the deeper oranges on the upper temps 850hpa.

The very warm humid(tropical)feeling air moving further north

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

850 temps, these are the upper temperatures.


GFS 00Z showing a blob right in Central south this eve, this must be a storm..

Posted Image

Lifted index for this eve, some unstable air over south UK, imports most likely plenty of energy to build storms is across the lake, these would keep going over the Channel. Plenty of heat and moisture now.

Posted Image

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted

Lucky you I'm just waiting here in Sussex. All I have had at the moment is a small garden shower

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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted (edited)

The overnight runs have yet again shifted all the decent cape/lift away to our South and East!,hence why this morning we are left with decaying light showers across the SE.

Tonight looks like being another 'bust' for UK storms as does Thursday,heavy rain in places with the odd crack of thunder,while thunderstorms proper stay over the continent.

If its possible for this Island to miss out on the exciting for mediocrity weatherwise,once again its proved it will happen.

So we are left with the cloudy overspill from other peoples storms once again,missing out on a hot sunny day.

Edited by sunnijim
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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

The overnight runs have yet again shifted all the decent cape/lift away to our South and East!,hence why this morning we are left with decaying light showers across the SE.Tonight looks like being another 'bust' for UK storms as does Thursday,heavy rain in places with the odd crack of thunder,while thunderstorms proper stay over the continent.If its possible for this Island to miss out on the exciting for mediocrity weatherwise,once again its proved it will happen.So we are left with the cloudy overspill from other peoples storms once again,missing out on a hot sunny day.

Why can it not be that other people have our storm left overs!

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Morning al!

 

Last night didn't deliver but I'm hoping that it just been delayed and we will get a few rumbles and flashes through this morning.

 

GFS overview is not having any of it!

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Time to drill down a bit deeper...

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