Thunderstorm potential and activity for Wednesday 19th into Thursday 20th June 2013

[essexweather]

Riot police gearing up to control outbreak of angry Netweather storm enthusiasts

coppersC.jpg

 

 

 

What I love about the NW forums, even when the proverbial happens there is a lot of respect and calm prevails 

[Arnie Pie]

Haha so after all that this week, it was Stourbridge and Dudley which were the places to be for the small storm here this evening. So we outdid the SE and East Anglia. LOL

But I was right all week saying no French storms would reach the UK but the greatest chance was today for the West Midlands and this rung true albeit slightly. I'm pleased!

Until imported storms actually reach the UK for once I'd argue the best place for storms will always be the Midlands, Lincolnshire and Home Counties esp North of London.

Spot on mucker

[ZONE 51]

Well that's the weather !!

 

I won't be moaning need to just move on and see what's next on the horizon. 

 

I think that due to the type of set-up this year over the last couple of months with the angle of Atlantic activity and mixed cool/warm air there is quite a good chance of pulling up warm humid air and creating thunderstorms, and also the features associated with low pressure's and cooler upper temperatures with surface heating causing home-grown T-storms. 

Edited June 21, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[stainesbloke]

Thoroughly fed up today and this evening. Had to work another shift in nauseating humid muck knowing about last night's continental excitement while we miss out yet again.Feeling like this is getting to be almost the norm in summer now and year in year out it NEVER seems to change. The emphasis is always on S.E. England and central south England missing storms, never getting surprise thunder events or upgrades to forecasts. Each year one area gets favoured or there is a theme - 2010: Storms moving N.E. into low countries and Germany, like last night; 2011 & 2012: N.E. England favoured. In other words, never the S.E.Summer is now a horrid season and it is getting a right bore. I am definitely a winter person and SAD, Seasonal Affective Disorder should be renamed Summer Affective Disorder as I feel more depressed, bad tempered and lacking in enthusiasm in the summer than winter these days. Current summers for the deficiency of thunder are the equivalent of those dreadful winters for the deficiency of snow in the late 1990's.Now there is NOTHING on the horizon except more atlantic depressions and their piddling useless amounts of rain in the S.E accompanied by an annoying constant breeze and no opportunities for shower development, yet too little sunshine to enjoy outdoor activities or feel good.I have never known such an awful summer month for dullness, boredom and depressing weather produce so little rain. Every decent quantity quoted is downgraded in the 24~36 hrs before. The term upgrade only applies to other peoples storms, never here.Nothing to look forward to now - had Cornwall holiday last week and there was drizzle and strong winds much of the week, yet I miss the glorious wonderful sunny week they had by one day! Typical - feel I have been cursed to suffer a FOURTH consecutive horrid summer - I know there is 2 months of 'summer'to go but as it is behaving like the last 3 already, can't see any chance it will improve.Wish I could move from this depressing overcrowded town where interesting weather never happens.Rant over. Sorry.

Don't apologise, sometimes it's good to let off steam and there are at least some nice people on this forum who will understand and not make snide remarks about 'always moaning'....I do understand how you feel completely. It's not that we have some dull, boring, useless weather...the last few summers its just pretty much constant, relentless grey, cold dirge uselful to no one. This beautiful isle (and as someone who literally travels around the world for their job) really is stunning in so many ways, and in an average year very interesting in weather terms too. It was for good reason that the UK was renowned for experiencing '4 seasons in a day'. What I struggle with personally is the recent default setting of cold, cloudy and windy. I have a shoulder condition that gives pretty much constant pain in winter which I can just about handle, but the last few years cold and damp summers means that the pain occurs all year now. Does get you down when your sleep is disrupted most nights! Anyway, we must hope for a return to at least some more typical weather i.e. changeable, that used to add to the joy of living in such a wonderful country. In the meantime, get the disappointment out of your system and let's see what the next 2 months have to offer...could be fantastic

[Supacell]

Well after 43 pages and two sferics I would like to say this has been one of the biggest examples of failed potential of thunderstorms I can remember. Okay there have been a number of times we have missed out but I think it is the fact we had 4 days of potential and not a thing came from it.

 

In actual fact we have far more chance of thunderstorms over the UK this coming weekend from the returning PM airmass than we have had all week, certainly for areas in the north and east, especially the NE. Then it turns very quiet next week, the mirror opposite of this time last year when we were staring down the barrel of big storms which actually happened!!!

[Coast]

 

What I love about the NW forums, even when the proverbial happens there is a lot of respect and calm prevails 

 

Mostly!!! 

 

Can I just remind you all that this thread is now only open for thoughts and analysis on the 'massive thunderstorms that never were' of the last two days.

 

For general convective conversation we are back to this thread:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77030-convective-storm-risk-discussion-18th-june-2013-onwards/

[Evening thunder]

Plume event's and MCS's have always missed the UK (just we've been rather unlucky and not had many hit in recent years). I think the hot thundery plume was really just a bit too far south and east, meaning it was always going to be the low countries into continental Europe that got hit. although it is disappointing we didn't get a bit more here.

 

Give me a plume with the low further west/NW rather than over France it's self, and where 15C+ 850hpa temps envelop much more of the country, like some of the GFS runs had shown several days before this event.

 

Mind you I can't see this happening soon while the Abores high sits there to our west..

[Cloudwatcher]

Thoroughly fed up today and this evening. Had to work another shift in nauseating humid muck knowing about last night's continental excitement while we miss out yet again.Feeling like this is getting to be almost the norm in summer now and year in year out it NEVER seems to change. The emphasis is always on S.E. England and central south England missing storms, never getting surprise thunder events or upgrades to forecasts. Each year one area gets favoured or there is a theme - 2010: Storms moving N.E. into low countries and Germany, like last night; 2011 & 2012: N.E. England favoured. In other words, never the S.E.Summer is now a horrid season and it is getting a right bore. I am definitely a winter person and SAD, Seasonal Affective Disorder should be renamed Summer Affective Disorder as I feel more depressed, bad tempered and lacking in enthusiasm in the summer than winter these days. Current summers for the deficiency of thunder are the equivalent of those dreadful winters for the deficiency of snow in the late 1990's.Now there is NOTHING on the horizon except more atlantic depressions and their piddling useless amounts of rain in the S.E accompanied by an annoying constant breeze and no opportunities for shower development, yet too little sunshine to enjoy outdoor activities or feel good.I have never known such an awful summer month for dullness, boredom and depressing weather produce so little rain. Every decent quantity quoted is downgraded in the 24~36 hrs before. The term upgrade only applies to other peoples storms, never here.Nothing to look forward to now - had Cornwall holiday last week and there was drizzle and strong winds much of the week, yet I miss the glorious wonderful sunny week they had by one day! Typical - feel I have been cursed to suffer a FOURTH consecutive horrid summer - I know there is 2 months of 'summer'to go but as it is behaving like the last 3 already, can't see any chance it will improve.Wish I could move from this depressing overcrowded town where interesting weather never happens.Rant over. Sorry.

I have every sympathy with you on this one. And it's not "moaning" it's just abject frustration that our summers seem to have become a total non-event in the last six years or so, Interestingly what seems to be happening with us in this location at the moment is either 

a: sunny start till about 9am, then clouding over consistently to generally a bland featureless murk, feeling cool with moderate winds, then brightening again literally just before sunset......and no storms obviously

b: dull start, dull day dull evening, featureless cloud, little rain, and no storms obviously

c: the occasional half decent day (a handful this year), and no storms obviously!

 

Yesterday held the most promise storm wise for us here, not necessarily from a scientific viewpoint, it just "looked" and "felt" stormy....but nothing. There just doesn't seem to be enough heating to set things up. And today although bright, we are under a thick-ish layer of white cloud that is just keeping things mundane. Maybe these comments belong better in the NSC I don't know but in the absence of anything resembling a storm, we don't have a lot else to talk about! lol.

[Methuselah]

Were there ant storms at all?

[Costa Del Fal]

Were there ant storms at all?

Yes, there was a small thunderstorm in Stourbridge and Dudley in the West Midlands yesterday evening. I would say this was classed as under the plume event as it was still in the warm, humid airmass. Other than that NO where else had a storm. Quite ironic really when the SE and EA was forecast them all week!

Edited June 21, 2013 by Blizzards

[Coast]

This thread iwill remain open for a couple of days only for thoughts and analysis on the 'massive thunderstorms that never were' of the last two days.

 

For general convective conversation we are back to this thread:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77030-convective-storm-risk-discussion-18th-june-2013-onwards/

[Methuselah]

Must be about the epicest fail I've ever seen....

[Captain Shortwave]

Must be about the epicest fail I've ever seen....

This thread should be posted on failblog for all eternity

[egret]

Talk about plumes is all a bit hasty for me. Late July through August is when i usually look for hot moist conditions brewing in the Pyrenees and heading North.

[Harry]

Haha so after all that this week, it was Stourbridge and Dudley which were the places to be for the small storm here this evening. So we outdid the SE and East Anglia. LOL

But I was right all week saying no French storms would reach the UK but the greatest chance was today for the West Midlands and this rung true albeit slightly. I'm pleased!

Until imported storms actually reach the UK for once I'd argue the best place for storms will always be the Midlands, Lincolnshire and Home Counties esp North of London.

 

Based on the current weather setup I agree, the South East generally is a pretty poor area for storms without imports. The South East generally does well from setups where we have low pressure close by with a strong W-E, or WSW to ENE windflow, with storms initiating across the SW and feeding off of the longer land track running from Cornwall/Dorset towards London and surrounding environs - unfortunately, these setups too seem to be ever decreasing (for some reason!!).

 

This week was always one of those frustrating ones where both the wind parameters, cloud cover and slack pressure gradients were working against us - we did come closest though to the tastiest storms which sadly only managed to graze the coasts tuesday morning, so decent show for coastal residents but pony for us inland.

 

We will I'm sure get at least one good shout this summer..........................................................................................................hopefully!!

[The PIT]

Carols Humdingers was the biggest ever fail.

The lack of day heat would have been the major factor here yesterday. Considering the front produced just half n inch of rain in a few hours yesterday shows we came pretty close.

[Harry]

Talk about plumes is all a bit hasty for me. Late July through August is when i usually look for hot moist conditions brewing in the Pyrenees and heading North.

 

This IMO is quite true - as a young brontophobe it was always late July and August I feared the most as, to my mind back then, it was when we had the biggest, scariest storms (usually imported MCS'). But then there were often days when we'd get 2, 3 sometimes 4 active thundery showers that would keep me entertained for hours. Whether its because I'm now a full time working 'London executive' I just simply miss these days, I don't know - radar and sferic detection would suggest they just dont happen much in this area these days.

 

I think we, particularly SE inhabitants, have to accept the next several years are likely to be a far cry from the 90s and early 00s days - when the weather patterns decide mercifully to revert back, we'll then have our day where we are the envy of UK storm lovers.....but it's certainly not today, nor tomorrow (I fear)

[Harry]

As a parting shot before I revert back to work, I think it's high time the MetO began introducing percentage storm risk indicators in their forecasts.

 

IMO, it's unacceptable to forecast thunderstorms and thundery showers, for a number of days, then after the event state "it was a pretty low risk"...surely therefore, your forecast should read "Hot and humid, with a small risk of thunderstorms". For the last few years, they too have been frustrated by the erratic storm behaviour... I think its time they structured their forecasts to suit. (I acknowledge the yellow warning issued did clearly state low risk, but this was not the case in the main text of their forecasts for Tuesday and Wednesday, if I remember correctly)

[nitro_deluxe]

Were there ant storms at all?

As in flying ants? If yes then no... :)Daft as it may seem, count how many times they've been out in abundance and the storms have quite literally come to life? Hmmm, this may need further analysis maybe even new thread?Natures subtle signals to impending storms? Not impending doom and gloom, or outbreaks of webcam watching..

[stainesbloke]

As in flying ants? If yes then no... :)Daft as it may seem, count how many times they've been out in abundance and the storms have quite literally come to life? Hmmm, this may need further analysis maybe even new thread?Natures subtle signals to impending storms? Not impending doom and gloom, or outbreaks of webcam watching..

Flying ants usually appear on calm, humid, sunny days in July and Aug. They often fly before a storm as that can offer good flying conditions and the subsequent rain softens the ground, making it easier for the newly mated queen ants to dig down and begin starting a new nest. Quite fascinating stuff, flying ants consist of young queens and males that mate on the wing.

[Harry]

Flying ants usually appear on calm, humid, sunny days in July and Aug. They often fly before a storm as that can offer good flying conditions and the subsequent rain softens the ground, making it easier for the newly mated queen ants to dig down and begin starting a new nest. Quite fascinating stuff, flying ants consist of young queens and males that mate on the wing.

 

Just to mention I found two flying ants on the wall in our study yesterday - I think they were as duped as I was lol!

[stainesbloke]

Just to mention I found two flying ants on the wall in our study yesterday - I think they were as duped as I was lol!

Hehe, found a couple on my car 2 days ago, obviously whoever has installed the UK storm shield has done a great job if the ants are getting duped!