Thunderstorm potential and activity for Wednesday 19th into Thursday 20th June 2013

[Mumbles]

I'm about 25 miles north of Weymouth...any chance of seeing storms tonight or tomorrow?

[nitro_deluxe]

I must be looking at a different Hamburg - seen about 2 flashes in about 15 mins. Lightning isn't up to much either  Hey ho, duvet time.....

Hey! Watch the tog rating...

[Adi F]

I guess you can tell i dropped the subject haha, anyway tonight is so boring we are all squeaking up on our foreign languages instead of discussing storms, thats how boring our weather is

 

Погода - дерьмо

[Staffordshire]

It's an interesting language to study as far as I can recall (it was 10 years ago now) lol

i could never understand whether to use der, die or das

[Ben Sainsbury]

I'm about 25 miles north of Weymouth...any chance of seeing storms tonight or tomorrow?

Don't know, no-one knows whats going to happen, it's just check the radar and hope for the best.

[biddie]

Cant say Ive noticed SJ. What are you seeing ?

nothing here !!

[ryan93]

So what's happening tonight/tomorrow then is anything guna happen storms wise??

[Ben Sainsbury]

So what's happening tonight/tomorrow then is anything guna happen storms wise??

No-ones sure yet...

[Panayiotis]

From Ian:

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather1m

W COUNTRY New high-res modelling frm @metoffice retains threat of heavy showers/poss storms breaking-out tomoro in some areas. Will advise.

 

Sounds good

Edited June 19, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Ben Sainsbury]

Interesting From Ian:

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather1m

W COUNTRY New high-res modelling frm @metoffice retains threat of heavy showers/poss storms breaking-out tomoro in some areas. Will advise.

I actually adore Ian!

[Cheshire Freeze]

i could never understand whether to use der, die or das

 

Depends if the noun was masculine, feminine or neuter

 

die Freundschaft.... Feminine

 

der Garten ........ Masculine

 

das Auto....... Neuter

 

You just have to pick it up when you learn the actual nouns. Instead of learning Auto (car) you would learn das Auto.

 

In German dictionaries, the noun will always be tagged (f) (m) or (n)

Edited June 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[Convective]

Again tensions are rising to the point where it's becoming unanswerable. The best way to put it is no one actually knows when the storms, if any, are going to strike and where they will be if they do turn up. Chances are the Midlands and Northen England could do better than the rest of the country. It's a big waiting game and we are all familiar with this idea that our country's weather isn't what it used to be but please, calm down, take a breath and take each day as it comes. Who knows, tomorrow you could get the biggest import since records began. The best storms often come when they aren't forecast.

[Tamara]

I must be looking at a different Hamburg - seen about 2 flashes in about 15 mins. Lightning isn't up to much either

 

Hey ho, duvet time.....

Alles klar - bis bald

 

Gute Nacht und schlaf gut

 

The biggest storms tomorrow will be over Central Europe much as suggested earlier as the hot humid air is transferred eastwards and destabilises/detonates the lid that has been on the heat there for the last few days

[Allseasons-Si]

check out hamberg,new storm developed

 

been watching this since 10:30 and now it's electrifyingly good

 

http://search.earthcam.com/search/ft_search.php?s1=1&term=Hamburg

 

OMG WOW.

Edited June 19, 2013 by allseasons-si

[Bobby]

Looks like a few cells developing across the west country, 700hpa vorticity is rapidly increasing from about now so hopefully these cells will develop rapidly too.

 

Vorticity building quickly

 

9pm 12am 3am

Storms come here please!

Edited June 19, 2013 by Bobby

[Ben Sainsbury]

check out hamberg,new storm developed

 

been watching this since 10:30 and now it's electrifyingly good

 

http://search.earthcam.com/search/ft_search.php?s1=1&term=Hamburg

Lovely!

[Panayiotis]

Another interesting note is the latest 18Z model for the 500hPa winds. It gives the UK, the south especially, a better chance of catching any thunderstorms which have developed in the near continent due to the winds becoming more northerly rather than NE'rly, therefore places like the far south-east may see more action that originally thought....

Edited June 19, 2013 by Panayiotis

[ZONE 51]

Done 3 maps using data from GFS/UKMO/NAE latest runs.

24hr precipitation maps starting 0000hrs. They are not pin point accurate bit fiddly doing that but this is where the main rain(or other)is expected by the model, not done intensity map, just anything 3mm or more, not included the 1mm light stuff(per 3hrs..) All models show a line of heavy ppn up the west side into southwest UK, I expect this to turn thundery. ALL 3 models also show heavy and some intense ppn up the north sea clipping Kent and East anglia, these should be thundery/MSC maybe.

NAE shows heavy cells into southeast UK moving north today. 

-- Map key - 

blue=GFS 18Z

green=UKMO 12z

yellow=NAE 18Z

 

 

 

 

 

ESS

[nitro_deluxe]

Quick update from near Hamburg..mate over there has just sent a pic of his pooch, taken only a short while ago..

 

[lfcdude]

Looking at radar... Salisbury plane seems to be getting things started? 

[Panayiotis]

@ElectricSS My location under all of them, haha!

[samadamsuk]

yeah that areas still reporting 19/20c at 11:50 - if anything does kick off, might be surface based - wind just picked up here in Cirencester and light rain

[Ben Sainsbury]

Line of developing cells, red part is directly over Salisbury

 

Could turn into a squall line if develops further!

Edited June 19, 2013 by interestingweather

[Marcus_surfer]

Those showers are becoming heavier in a short line now, they could turn thundery

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Some of that lightning in Germany is out of this world, the lucky buggers! 

This is what our potential thundery spells have came to, camwatching!!!