Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[feb1991blizzard]

The SSW last winter really knackered our spring up this year so I was very pleased to read that bit however an SSW isn't the b all and end all of winter is it? was the bitter spell at the end of 2010 caused by an SSW or was that just luck for coldies with everything falling into place for a month or so before thing improved in January and February?

 

My early winter thought's http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=2778785

 

 

No an SSW isn't the b all and end all but from your point of view, the best thing is a consistently below average stratosphere, I am not sure about the 2010 spell as I only got back into this game in 09 after a 10 year absence and the strat is only a very recent phenomenon, pioneered by our very own chionomaniac

[Cheshire Freeze]

Had a little peek into Dec, Oh yes please http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2568&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

 

What the CFS was gunning for back in May (for Jan 2014)...

 

 

What the CFS is gunning for today (for Jan 2014)

 

 

Looks to be pretty good consistency thus far.

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

The weather outlook have issued there Autumn forecast and they are also going for a slightly warmer than normal one with temperatures close to or slightly above the long term average but a slightly below average November is there prediction

 

Autumn 2013: Mixed, cold later

 

Overview

A mixed season. Early on warm conditions are expected. During the middle of the season the focus is forecast to be on unsettled and possibly stormy weather. Later on increasingly cold conditions could develop in the north and possibly extend south for a time.

 

Temperature

 

Temperatures are expected to be close to or slightly above the long term average over the three month period.  

Precipitation

Close to or slightly above average.

 

September

 

Temperature: Above average

Precipitation: Close to or slightly above average 

First half

A generally fine start to the month is expected with temperatures well above the season average, especially in the south. The mostly dry conditions are expected to last through the first week. Through the second week increasingly unsettled weather is expected to return from the west, with showers or longer spells of rain affecting all regions. Temperatures becoming close to the average.

Second half

The second half of the month looks like bringing a mixed bag of weather. Some warmer and drier interludes are likely, but also unsettled and windy spells of weather. Overall this period is likely to bring close to average conditions.

 

October

 

Temperature: Slightly above average

Precipitation: Close to average

First half

A reasonable start to the month is expected with temperatures climbing above the seasonal average. Possibly becoming rather warm for a time before the rather settled conditions gradually break and are replaced by increasingly wet and windy weather. Temperatures trending back towards the seasonal average later in the period. 

Second half

Unsettled weather is likely for much of the time during the second half of the month and at times it could become very windy or stormy, especially in the north and west. Southern regions should continue to see drier interludes, but it is expected to be often unsettled. Temperatures mostly close to average.

November

 

Temperature: Slightly below average

Precipitation: Close to average

First half

A good deal of unsettled and windy weather bringing widespread rainfall and windy conditions at times, with the wettest weather likely in central and southern regions. Temperatures should often remain close to the seasonal average in the south, but colder in the north with an increasing risk of frost and sleet or snow over high ground in Scotland.

Second half

Unsettled and at times cold weather is expected to affect most of the country, with widespread showers or longer spells of rain. Possibly becoming cold in northern regions with a risk of snow. Wintry conditions could extend could extend south for a time with frost becoming widespread. Temperatures during this period are likely to be below the seasonal average.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

 

 

 

Interestingly they're going for a cold November.

[Summer Sun]

Interestingly they're going for a cold November.

 

As are netweather http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

 

with a strong high pressure anomaly to the north of the UK being shown this would point toward a cooler/colder than average month with rainfall levels generally ranging from close to average in the south to below average further north

[feb1991blizzard]

What the CFS was gunning for back in May (for Jan 2014)...

 

Jan 2014.png

 

What the CFS is gunning for today (for Jan 2014)

 

N Blocking.png

 

Looks to be pretty good consistency thus far.

 

 

 

 

 

FKN ripper - best CFs anom chart ive ever seen.

Edited September 1, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

FKN ripper - best CFs anom chart ive ever seen.

 

Yep, that height anomaly actually goes off the scale. There's been a few like that over the past few months.

[Methuselah]

What the CFS was gunning for back in May (for Jan 2014)...

 

Jan 2014.png

 

What the CFS is gunning for today (for Jan 2014)

 

N Blocking.png

 

Looks to be pretty good consistency thus far.

What about all the output in between?

[Captain Shortwave]

What the CFS was gunning for back in May (for Jan 2014)...

 

Jan 2014.png

 

What the CFS is gunning for today (for Jan 2014)

 

N Blocking.png

 

Looks to be pretty good consistency thus far.

Lets hope that becomes a reality 

[Cheshire Freeze]

What about all the output in between?

 

I have about 20 charts like that I've saved from the CFS at various times between May and now and there's been plenty I didn't save.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Probably get the idea by now lol!

 

I've been analysing the output from this model for the last 4 months intensively and by far the biggest signal for January is N blocking. The consistent -AO signal is extremely impressive and the frequency of -NAO showings isn't far behind.

 

Gavin P over on t'other side has noted this trend for N blocking and has a few videos where he makes a point about the consistency of the CFS output for January. So I'm not the only one that's noticed it

Edited September 1, 2013 by CreweCold

[Mark Parsons]

I have about 20 charts like that I've saved from the CFS at various times between May and now and there's been plenty I didn't save.

 

Jan new.png

 

Jan!.png

 

Jan.png

 

Winter 2013-14.png

 

Jan 14.png

 

Probably get the idea by now lol!

 

I've been analysing the output from this model for the last 4 months intensively and by far the biggest signal for January is N blocking. The consistent -AO signal is extremely impressive and the frequency of -NAO showings isn't far behind.

What about the poor Greenlanders they will be sweating!

Seriously, the anomaly over Greenland does seem over done like it does over southern England is this realistic?? 

Edited September 1, 2013 by Mark Parsons

[Cheshire Freeze]

What about the poor Greenlanders they will be sweating!

Seriously, the anomaly over Greenland does seem over done like it does over southern England is this realistic?? 

 

Remember, these are anomalies from the average. In winter you'd expect deeper lows and lower heights in general towards the N latitudes as the vortex cranks up. Hence, any areas of HP that are picked out by the model will appear 'overdone' as N'ly blocking will deviate significantly from the mean (in terms of pressure) around areas such as Greenland and Scandi. An area of high pressure to the N and low pressure to the S is essentially the reverse of what we would usually see dominate on average remember.

 

P.S let the Greenlanders swelter

Edited September 1, 2013 by CreweCold

[cooling climate]

My punt would be for a severe winter for Europe, the UK and much of northern USA

this winter. I made a post in this thread a few days back explaining a few of my ideas

and although it is very early to be making winter predictions I am very confident at

this stage.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes, leteth smashusth floodgatum de openium.

[weatherguy]

Just had a look through the CFS and it makes for entertaining viewing..

 

Dec: Looks zonal to start with, but with more and more PM air being brought into the mix, leading to what I can only describe as "raging polar zonality" from the NW, before delivering a straight northerly blast akin to Dec 2010.

Jan: The northerly blast recedes and a brief spell of typical zonality ensues, before high pressure builds over scandi.  Lows from the west keep coming, but they gradually go further and further south...This leads to major easterlies being brought about along with plenty of battlegrounds.

Feb: The easterlies and battleground snow continue.

 

Safe to say I'd bank the above, if only long range forecasting was as simple as looking at one run on the CFS!  

 

PS - May just be bias of looking for cold scenarios, but the CFS anomalies do seem to be suggesting northerly blocking making a return this winter.  We'll see though; SSWs aren't necessarily required to deliver a cold winter and -NAO, but they certainly increase our chances...Lorenzo's words aren't too reassuring on this front.  

[summer blizzard]

What about the poor Greenlanders they will be sweating!

Seriously, the anomaly over Greenland does seem over done like it does over southern England is this realistic?? 

 

Because of the high pressure it stays cold for them, they just get a pretty extreme inversion whereby the summits may be above freezing but the valleys still frigid.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes a high can still mean severe cold at surface level, particularly with snow cover on the ground (as there will always be in Greenland), and of course uk 2010 dec and Jan were examples as well.

[Summer Sun]

What the CFS was gunning for back in May (for Jan 2014)...

 

Jan 2014.png

 

What the CFS is gunning for today (for Jan 2014)

 

N Blocking.png

 

Looks to be pretty good consistency thus far.

 

Here is the pressure and temperature charts too add to what CC posted

 

 

And closer in

 

 

Is that a northwesterly pattern or South easterly I always get mixed up with these

[Cheshire Freeze]

Here is the pressure and temperature charts too add to what CC posted

 

 

And closer in

 

 

Is that a northwesterly pattern or South easterly I always get mixed up with these

 

Looks like an undercutting low scenario to me. Plenty of snow where the boundary sets up in those situations. A bit like mid Jan 2013

[summer blizzard]

Here is the pressure and temperature charts too add to what CC posted

 

 

And closer in

 

 

Is that a northwesterly pattern or South easterly I always get mixed up with these

 

South Easterly so plenty of frontal potential. As the lows move east and weaken winds would back easterly and north easterly. 

[Freezeflake]

I'm still new so sorry if I'm wrong but I think that is south easterlies

[feb1991blizzard]

Looks like an undercutting low scenario to me. Plenty of snow where the boundary sets up in those situations. A bit like mid Jan 2013

 

yes, lets hope from bothe of our point of view the fronts get a smidg further north than they did that Friday afternoon.

Edited September 1, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

South Easterly so plenty of frontal potential. As the lows move east and weaken winds would back easterly and north easterly. 

 

Thanks

[Cheshire Freeze]

yes, lets hope from bothe of our point of view the fronts get a smidg further north than they did that Friday afternoon.

 

Did well here in Jan. Up there with the deepest snow cover I can remember. Was 'only' 10cm though which is pretty pathetic to what other places get on a regular basis.

Edited September 1, 2013 by CreweCold

[summer blizzard]

I had 16cm before the final event which brought 12cm to areas lower so before the melt i may have been close to a foot.

 

Jan was great this year, constant snow events.

[feb1991blizzard]

Did well here in Jan. Up there with the deepest snow cover I can remember. Was 'only' 10cm though which is pretty pathetic to what other places get on a regular basis.

 

Yes I remember it, you were nearly having an orgasm while I suffered in silence, it just shows you though because I had 3 separate instances of 10cm or more last winter and an almighty blizzard late march, I am after a massive one though, stonking winter overall last winter though, I was hoping to freelance this winter bout really doubt it will happen now due to funds, I may not even be here, I might be in midlands, it will be typical if I do, I would have fared better in midlands last year although cant complain though, it was a good year.