Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[ANYWEATHER]

There's no breakdown shown by the models - any incursion is in FI.

The breakdown in the models is a certainty in/FI! But for now hot and dry for many, Monday/Tuesday next week looks like a pivitol  change in our weather 

[shedhead]

There's no breakdown shown by the models - any incursion is in FI.

If this was due to breakdown on Weds you would still be calling it FI.  Really not sure why you have a problem discussing the breakdown, even in FI, because of it were cool and wet now and FI showed a heatwave you would be all over that like a cheap suit. The breakdown is coming, like it or lump it and with the model outputs now chopping and changing both on timings and source it is and should remain perfectly acceptable material for discussion.

[AWD]

I think when people here the word "breakdown" others quite rightly think they mean a completely different weather pattern emerging when that is not always the case, as it isn't in this instance. It would help when people using the word "breakdown", they state what kind of breakdown.

If we look at the heat side of things, the GEFS suite show little variance for the foreseeable future and beyond, with the warm - hot temperatures likely for the most part of the month;

However, a look at the SLP values does show something more of a relaxation, with pressure dropping off in the semi-reliable timeframe onwards, but never to any below average degree;

This then, combined with the heat, is a recipe for homegrown shower and thunderstorm development in the 7 - 14 day timeframe. Off course, I use the word "could" as there is a lot more needed to promote this scenario than just heat and humidity. As we have seen at times this week, even with high LI levels, the upper air has been capped.

A look at the EC Op also shows a similiar scenario. A gert 1025mb+ high over the UK at 96 hours;

But go out to 144 hours and beyond, again the semi-reliable timeframe now, and we see a relaxation in SLP values;

But no let up in the heat, with high temperatures and high humidity remaining for the most of the month. This all in association with a cut off low towards the Biscay/Portugal area. A look at the 500mb anomaly charts also confirm the warmth/heat to remain, but also show the threat of lower upper air heights towards the Biscay/Portugal area;

With the heat looking incredibly likely to stay around for the remainder of the month, it's all down to what affect this cut off low towards the Biscay/Portugal area has on the UK, as to whether we remain sunny and clear or weather more cloud and convective activity pops up in week 2.

So no breakdown in heat is likely this month IMO, but there is noticeable support for lowering SLP values, enough to promote homegrown showers and thunderstorms for some, as ever though, if this were to verify, plenty would still miss them and remain dry.

Edited July 15, 2013 by AWD

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This is looking like it could give the Moscow heatwave that happened 3 years ago around this time a good run for its money!! 

These charts are simply staggering!

[nitro_deluxe]

This is looking like it could give the Moscow heatwave that happened 3 years ago around this time a good run for its money!! These charts are simply staggering!

In a word - amazing Even if it all does come to an abrupt end next-week? LOL. Edited July 15, 2013 by triple_x1

[DAVID SNOW]

Slightly off topic, I apologise - I've just been looking at the Met Office's heat health section. Don't usually have to consult this section!

 

What sort of triggers would Level 3 and 4 be? In terms of temps/humidity, general weather conditions tec.

 

Amber — Heatwave action

Triggered when the Met Office confirms threshold temperatures for one of more regions have been reached for one day and the following night, and the forecast for the next day has a greater than 90% confidence level that the day threshold temperature will be met. This stage requires social and healthcare services to target specific actions at high-risk groups.

 

Red — National Emergency

Reached when a heatwave is so severe and/or prolonged that its effects extend outside the health and social care system. At this level, illness and death may occur among the fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups.

 

Definitions a bit ambiguous IMO. We're currently at Level 2 in the SE/Midlands.

the latest ECM run does look very warm and potentially thundery.

 

As for METO  warnings,

 a level 4, red national warning will only be issued if cases of Spontaneous Human Combustion are observed in urban areas.

[Evening thunder]

If this was due to breakdown on Weds you would still be calling it FI.  Really not sure why you have a problem discussing the breakdown, even in FI, because of it were cool and wet now and FI showed a heatwave you would be all over that like a cheap suit. The breakdown is coming, like it or lump it and with the model outputs now chopping and changing both on timings and source it is and should remain perfectly acceptable material for discussion.

 

Indeed I agree, but then you get some different people saying warmth/high pressure charts are in FI and they seem to have a problem with people discussing them. Yes a breakdown is coming, a breakdown comes to every single weather type/event that has ever happened..

This is looking like it could give the Moscow heatwave that happened 3 years ago around this time a good run for its money!! 

These charts are simply staggering!

 

I don't think we'll be getting temps at quite that level, I just found the mean temp in Moscow for July 2010 was 26.1C, 7C above average ()  that anomaly would require a CET monthly mean equivalent of 23-24C! (and no models show temps getting anywhere near 39C they had in Moscow or record breaking for us).

 

About a potential breakdown, The ECM mean at T+240 shows pressure lower and things being rather slack in general, A breakdown of some sort or a partial breakdown is probably quite likely after day 10 I feel (may not be a bad thing, could definitely do with rain by then and might not be to weeks of cool/unsettled dominated weather), though I don't think you could pick out any especially likely trend or solution from this mean chart (the individual members could be more revealing or show different clusters). The ECM ensemble mean doesn't really suggest a breakdown from the NW as much as it has recently though.

Edited July 15, 2013 by Stormmad26

[draztik]

This is looking like it could give the Moscow heatwave that happened 3 years ago around this time a good run for its money!! These charts are simply staggering!

Um, no! That heatwave ran for the best part of 6 weeks, with temperatures exceeding 40C in many areas of Russia. This current heatwave, and what the models appear to show, wont result in a similar event!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Um, no! That heatwave ran for the best part of 6 weeks, with temperatures exceeding 40C in many areas of Russia. This current heatwave, and what the models appear to show, wont result in a similar event!

Not saying it will be as intense, but a good enough square up to it, we've already been seeing this heat for nearly 3 weeks now I believe. 

It probably wont come to fruition at all, but if those uppers of 20c+ plough right over us, we could reach the high 30's in one or two spots. Its been displayed in a couple of runs, so we can't say it will definitely not happen! 

For all we know, this could go on for a good 5-6 weeks too.

[we_want_snow]

I think the heat has got to some people!!

It's been lovely and warm here since Thursday 4th July so 10 days, not quite 3 weeks. Also a high of 28.5 here and what, 32 in the UK. Don't get me wrong, it's stunning weather and looks like continuing, but not quite Moscow 2010 standard

[Radiating Dendrite]

I think some are getting a bit carried away.

So far the maximum temp recorded has been 31.4c. Gravesend recorded a max of 33c last year in the warm end of June spell.

The temps so far are nothing out of the ordinary for a spell of warm weather in the UK. Remember when we got to 29c in October!

[A.J]

can we also have some topical model output discussion as well please?......ta!

[Scorcher]

I think some are getting a bit carried away.So far the maximum temp recorded has been 31.4c. Gravesend recorded a max of 33c last year in the warm end of June spell.The temps so far are nothing out of the ordinary for a spell of warm weather in the UK. Remember when we got to 29c in October!

 

It's not just about how high the temperatures are, it's about the length of the spell as well and I'm struggling to recall another spell as long and as dry as this one without any cool days. Even in July 2006 we had a couple of 18/19C days in these parts. I'd much rather have this than a brief plume that produces 33C temps and then is gone in the blink of an eye.

[Summer Sun]

12z GFS ensembles keep the heat going till the 27th this evening before we start to see more scatter appearing that would give us another 12 days of hot sunny weather with only the east coast possibly prone to cloud and fresher / cooler temperatures in England

 

Edited July 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

This run has really weakened the trough to our east

 

Just a few runs ago it was a pretty active low pressure system, now it's weaker and more south east. Which allows heights to build more favourably, especially for eastern areas hopefully.

Edited July 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

I think some are getting a bit carried away. So far the maximum temp recorded has been 31.4c. Gravesend recorded a max of 33c last year in the warm end of June spell. The temps so far are nothing out of the ordinary for a spell of warm weather in the UK. Remember when we got to 29c in October!

Just to correct you, this is a hot spell and to call it ordinary is frankly ridiculous, this is already easily the best spell of summery weather since july 2006 with many more hot days to come...according to the latest stunning model output.

[jethro]

Any chance of any rain in the near future? My garden's really beginning to dry out now. 

[Kentspur]

I think some are getting a bit carried away.So far the maximum temp recorded has been 31.4c. Gravesend recorded a max of 33c last year in the warm end of June spell.The temps so far are nothing out of the ordinary for a spell of warm weather in the UK. Remember when we got to 29c in October!

Oh good job I chose to move to Gravesend in two weeks:-))

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday could be the hottest day of the year again with GFS showing 32c but who knows we may see 34c somewhere in the south

 

[Geordiesnow]

This is looking like it could give the Moscow heatwave that happened 3 years ago around this time a good run for its money!! 

These charts are simply staggering!

 

I think the current Siberian heatwave looks even more impressive(and quite scary) too me, 15C uppers, 30+ temps right on the coast of the Arctic Circle!! And this could last for quite a few days by the looks of it! Too think only 20 years ago, the Kara Sea would be covered in thick sea ice and now the coastline could experience its hottest ever temperatures. 

 

For our shores, it does look like the heat will continue but I am still wary about getting carried away about everywhere will be warm/hot and sunny, we have seen in some places even quite a bit away from the East Coast that low cloud can stick around but I think for the most part, its looking good for heat lovers. 

[bradymk]

watch the models continue to downgrade that trough, it happened a week or two ago and they are doing it again! meanwhile, some hot and humid weather end of this week and the weekend especially, 30/31 quite widely in southern England, i would say 34c is realistic in one or two spots. Anyway, enjoy this spell, its turning into a v long dry/warm spell, especially if that trough continues to downgrade, may even turn into a classic.

[TomIOW]

best fi ever. britain would melt. big plume!

[Downpour]

If this was due to breakdown on Weds you would still be calling it FI.  Really not sure why you have a problem discussing the breakdown, even in FI, because of it were cool and wet now and FI showed a heatwave you would be all over that like a cheap suit. The breakdown is coming, like it or lump it and with the model outputs now chopping and changing both on timings and source it is and should remain perfectly acceptable material for discussion.

Total rubbish. Point me to a single post of mine that ramps up a FI heatwave. I think LRFing is mumbo jumbo and have said so on here numerous times!

[Downpour]

Indeed I agree, but then you get some different people saying warmth/high pressure charts are in FI and they seem to have a problem with people discussing them. Yes a breakdown is coming, a breakdown comes to every single weather type/event that has ever happened..

 

I don't think we'll be getting temps at quite that level, I just found the mean temp in Moscow for July 2010 was 26.1C, 7C above average ()  that anomaly would require a CET monthly mean equivalent of 23-24C! (and no models show temps getting anywhere near 39C they had in Moscow or record breaking for us).

 

About a potential breakdown, The ECM mean at T+240 shows pressure lower and things being rather slack in general, A breakdown of some sort or a partial breakdown is probably quite likely after day 10 I feel (may not be a bad thing, could definitely do with rain by then and might not be to weeks of cool/unsettled dominated weather), though I don't think you could pick out any especially likely trend or solution from this mean chart (the individual members could be more revealing or show different clusters). The ECM ensemble mean doesn't really suggest a breakdown from the NW as much as it has recently though.

Why? I have never ramped an FI heatwave, or freeze, or storm on here and never will. LRFing is mumbo jumbo - the tech is simply not up to it. 

[cheese]

I think the current Siberian heatwave looks even more impressive(and quite scary) too me, 15C uppers, 30+ temps right on the coast of the Arctic Circle!! And this could last for quite a few days by the looks of it! Too think only 20 years ago, the Kara Sea would be covered in thick sea ice and now the coastline could experience its hottest ever temperatures. 

 

For our shores, it does look like the heat will continue but I am still wary about getting carried away about everywhere will be warm/hot and sunny, we have seen in some places even quite a bit away from the East Coast that low cloud can stick around but I think for the most part, its looking good for heat lovers. 

This is my concern too - even though the position of the high is more favourable for eastern areas, easterly winds are still projected to arrive by Friday or so. GFS still shows high temperatures for the the vast majority, but then they can be misleading and aren't exactly the most accurate tool, and low cloud, or any cloud, is difficult to forecast, and can appear without warning, as we say last Monday for eastern England.

 

Still time for things to change - but a westerly flow seems to benefit more people than an easterly flow, unless it is coming from the SE, picking up hot continental air, even most western areas appear to stay dry and clear during westerly winds, as we saw today - any low cloud and fog was far less extensive and stubborn than what we in the east usually get off the North Sea.

Edited July 15, 2013 by cheese