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Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st July 2013 onwards

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Chloe Contributor

Chloe

Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London
Posted

Yay first storm Of the year deep booms to I think to my south thunder every two min seems a bit fat yet not overhead no lightning as yet who has this?

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

BIG THUNDERSTORM SPARKING OFF LAST FEW MINUTES HEATHROW AP/STANWELL AREA

 

I was going to ask if it was anaprop, but there is my answer. Enjoy :)

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

This one went up in 30mins!!! this a loud one I can tell you, bit in distance but deep deep thunder

Not on MetO lightning yet went up so quick just need to get the next update. I saw the tops of this very high.

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MeteoF Newbie

MeteoF

Posted
  • Location: Twickenham
  • Location: Twickenham
Posted

Yay first storm Of the year deep booms to I think to my south thunder every two min seems a bit fat yet not overhead no lightning as yet who has this?

Was directly overhead here in Twickenham about 20 mins ago but has drifted to north-east. Now clear (ish) to our south. 

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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

still got the horrid cloud thats been pinning temps down for the past few days

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

still got the horrid cloud thats been pinning temps down for the past few days

 

Me too, but it will not effect these storms as they are likely to erupt along the axis of a plume that is moving northwards. Some of the best storms, for example, are likely to be overnight tonight and so clearly the amount of sunshine is not important.

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gregior Explorer

gregior

Posted
  • Location: 6 miles west of Manchester 50m asl
  • Location: 6 miles west of Manchester 50m asl
Posted

Someting interesting approaching Manchester from the south now ,large anvil visible!

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Ruthie Contributor

Ruthie

Posted
  • Location: Brentford, West London (from Wales originally)
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy, windy, cold.
  • Location: Brentford, West London (from Wales originally)
Posted

Hi from west London. Helluva storm ! Woke up to some very loud bangs and lightning thru the curtains. Can't hear any planes going to heathrow just yet. Sky is green here. The rain was torrential for a short while but has eased now.

There's me looking for Tuesday for storms!!

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

Developed from a shower in 15 mins to a storm.. amazing!

post-11361-0-13541200-1374471091_thumb.p

 

note that's 0615am issued (ignore the 415 just where mouse was hovering on screen snap)

 

Link here -

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/#?tab=map&map=Lightning&zoom=9&locId=350928&lon=-0.18&lat=51.55&fcTime=1374426900

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

post-5986-0-22185500-1374471047.txt

 

"Initiation will occur within numerous time frames. First, showers and thunderstorms probably evolve over Ireland and UK before noon. This activity is forecast to grow upscale during the afternoon hours and numerous northward moving thunderstorm clusters affect Ireland, UK and Scotland.

 

The later severe risk could become bimodal: existing WAA thunderstorms move to the N ahead of the uncapped CAPE/thetae-plume over S/C-UK and remain elevated with an isolated severe risk. The southernmost storms however could start to build into the weakly capped and very unstable air mass to the south (over S/C-UK) and could become severe due to MLCAPE now approaching 1000 to 1500 J/kg and more surface based activity due to a weakening cap.

 

Other thunderstorm clusters, which evolve during the afternoon and evening hours over S-UK will also contain an enhanced severe risk due to large hail and strong to isolated severe wind gusts. The heavy to isolated excessive rainfall risk also increases during that time frame.

 

We included an isolated tornado risk mainly for NW France and SW-UK especially during the late afternoon and evening hours, when LL shear increases a bit and LCLs drop to less than 1 km along/just west of the convergence zone.

 

Once again, a similar severe risk (large hail, strong wind gusts and heavy to excesive rainfall amounts) is forecast with the widespread overnight activity within the complete level 1 area. Stronger shear might support a few well organized multicells, which continue until 06Z while drifting to the NE. Those storms continue to remain surface based from W-France into S-UK and become more elevated further north."

 

 

Posted Image

Edited by Sparkicle
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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Me too, but it will not effect these storms as they are likely to erupt along the axis of a plume that is moving northwards. Some of the best storms, for example, are likely to be overnight tonight and so clearly the amount of sunshine is not important.

Hope you're right.. but the cloud should clear by the afternoon anyway.

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nanu Enthusiast

nanu

Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
Posted

And its still growing.. got constant booming thunder every 10secs my end..so far will miss me but if it keeps growing whole of london will get smothered

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Ruthie Contributor

Ruthie

Posted
  • Location: Brentford, West London (from Wales originally)
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy, windy, cold.
  • Location: Brentford, West London (from Wales originally)
Posted

It's still rumbling away here.. Not as loud. Do have a banging headache though.

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Chloe Contributor

Chloe

Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London
Posted

Lightning storm is getting nearer not sure which part of w London has this overhead though? Deep booms to the west maybe shepherds Bush way

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Chloe Contributor

Chloe

Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London
Posted

Lightning storm is getting nearer not sure which part of w London has this overhead though? Deep booms to the west maybe shepherds Bush way

actually might be harrow way
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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted (edited)

I know for most this is an event to look forward to but for me it's just the opposite , so just a quick question anyone have a rough idea how long is this expected to last in the midlands for

 

I don't mean thundery showers , I mean these big storms that are forecast with the plume that is moving north

 

it seems they'll be some storms this afternoon and especially overnight into tomorrow that are expected to merge into areas of thundery rain but are we looking beyond Tuesday into Wednesday or will it start to ease by then

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Darren Bown Community Regular

Darren Bown

Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
Posted

Someting interesting approaching Manchester from the south now ,large anvil visible!

Another single cell storm that's popped up the last 20 mins or so! Heading my way too.
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Ruthie Contributor

Ruthie

Posted
  • Location: Brentford, West London (from Wales originally)
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy, windy, cold.
  • Location: Brentford, West London (from Wales originally)
Posted

Lightning storm is getting nearer not sure which part of w London has this overhead though? Deep booms to the west maybe shepherds Bush way

Where r u in west London? I can near the thunder booming away. Was right overhead here in brentford at around 610am I would say.
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted

I know for most this is an event to look forward to but for me it's just the opposite , so just a quick question anyone have a rough idea how long is this expected to last in the midlands for

 

I don't mean thundery showers , I mean these big storms that are forecast with the plume that is moving north

 

it seems they'll be some storms this afternoon and especially overnight into tomorrow but are we looking beyond Tuesday into Wednesday or will it start to ease by then

 

Risk gone by Thurs Morning.

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

I'm in Stanwell (next to H-AP) still hearing deep thunder every couple of min (distance) 

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