Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st July 2013 onwards

[Wilxy]

right im off to bed nothing is happening now.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Evening All

 

Everything seems to be going to plan so far.

 

This always looked like a 3 pronged attack from a few days ago most Models had a much better grasp on how things should play out, and with Phase 1 almost ticking along to the hour we have the first interesting Storms ongoing, this due to the Destabilising Plume moving into Central Southern and SW England, These Elevated Storms should continue to rumble away for the next few hours before waning by daybreak, am seeing lots of people worried about the leftover clag for tomorrow, would say at this stage dont be too worried, everything looks on course, Phase 2 and 3 come quite close together tomorrow, starting with Phase 2 for Surface Based Severe Storms from West of London arching towards NW England, these moving NE Into the East Midlands and Lincolnshire under 90-93f temps and Convergence. Phase 3 then starts from tomorrow evening and overnight into Tuesday Morning as an MCS Forecasted to initiate tomorrow 5pm onwards from SW England across to Northern France envelops Central Southern England and South East England moving Northwards, it is going to feel very uncomfortable tomorrow with 64f Dewpoints but still feel dangerous Lightning and Hail will be the Primary threats and not expecting any tornadic activity but cannot rule out any with CZ Type Surface Based Storms more especially Midlands later tomorrow afternoon.

 

Enjoy!

 

Paul S

I'm still on the fence with the whole thing - I just have this nagging suspicion (as on many previous occasions) that the far East of England may be unlucky. The words "north" and "north-west" never inspire me with much confidence!

[ChezWeather]

Literally everywhere in the country is included in the Estofex warning apart from where i am! (Extreme SW) 

[Staffordshire]

Am i the only one that has made an immature link with the shape of our level 1?

[paul m]

Am i the only one that has made an immature link with the shape of our level 1?

Yes i see a banana too

[Paul Sherman]

Lol

 

Well Estofex pretty much in agreement with my thoughts but obviously much much more detail, and I agree 100% with them, they are also seeing 3 Phases, with the Non Severe waning of Elevated Storms before Midday, then the Surface Based Convergence Zone Storms (Probably Most Severe) before another round of Clusters (MCS) Moves North Eastwards in the overnight (Mon to Tues)

 

To the poster that asked wether Lightning would be prolific, yes could be some very dangerous Lightning tomorrow.

[STORMGUY]

the plume is now between  Salisbury and north Devon.you should start to see storms developing more over towards Devon south wales area soon.

[rich1974]

One finger...you could do the same on the next level, level two, also three but you'd have to use the thing in your mouth.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Yes i see a banana too

Be thankful it isn't a pear

[Ben Sainsbury]

the plume is now between  Salisbury and north Devon.you should start to see storms developing more over towards Devon south wales area soon.

I do hope so but nothing seems to be developing?

[rich1974]

Am I right in saying this is heading for Berkshire, the radar image shows it heading my way but then I hear people saying it's heading towards Wales...confused, HELP???

[Paul Sherman]

I'm still on the fence with the whole thing - I just have this nagging suspicion (as on many previous occasions) that the far East of England may be unlucky. The words "north" and "north-west" never inspire me with much confidence!

 

Cant see how this time, you might be too far East for the Surface Based Storms tomorrow afternoon in the heat of the day, but this looks like one of the old skool Plumes of the 1980's and 1990's

 

For the younger members they enveloped an area from Devon to Kent and Cherbourg to Calais and moved Northwards on mass and literally almost all saw night-time lightning shows.

 

I would be VERY Surprised if you did not get affected (Norfolk) by an Overnight MCS Tomorrow Night or very early Tuesday Morning.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Am I right in saying this is heading for Berkshire, the radar image shows it heading my way but then I hear people saying it's heading towards Wales...confused, HELP???

It's generally heading NNE towards Swindon.

[rich1974]

That's what I thought, thanks for that, any idea what area it's in now?

[A.J]

I go away for 30 mins, come back and find that someones turned the lightning tap off.....where's it all gone?

[rich1974]

Northern Edge i mean?

[BlueHedgehog074]

Flicking through the last few frames of the radar, it looks as though the thunderstorm down South seems to have lost some of its energy in regards to the intensity of the precipitation (nooooooo....). Not too sure whether it will regain any power, though. But at least their are further chances down the line.

[Convective]

Here we go, what's this southwest of Cardiff?

[Ben Sainsbury]

Northern Edge i mean?

Well the northern extent currently is Warminster.

[anvilcrawler]

Cant see how this time, you might be too far East for the Surface Based Storms tomorrow afternoon in the heat of the day, but this looks like one of the old skool Plumes of the 1980's and 1990's

 

For the younger members they enveloped an area from Devon to Kent and Cherbourg to Calais and moved Northwards on mass and literally almost all saw night-time lightning shows.

 

I would be VERY Surprised if you did not get affected (Norfolk) by an Overnight MCS Tomorrow Night or very early Tuesday Morning.

I sure hope this comes off and hits me in rugby,sure would love an old school classic,how i would love to see one of them again.

Got everything charged ready : )

Edited July 21, 2013 by anvilcrawler

[Ben Sainsbury]

Here we go, what's this southwest of Cardiff?

Yes cells have developed around there but unlikely it hit Cardiff as it is.

[Southern Storm]

Hi all, what a night!

 

Here are some snaps I captured tonight hope you all enjoy them

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 21, 2013 by thunderman24

[rich1974]

Great, thanks for the update, starting to think about taking a drive.

[Paul Sherman]

I sure hope this comes off and hits me in rugby,sure would love an old school classic,how i would love to see one of them again.

Got everything charged ready : )

 

I would rather be in Warwickshire than Essex thats for sure, 2 bites of the cherry for you tomorrow, think I will be too far east for anything surface based tomorrow afternoon but Warwickshire looks very good.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Great, thanks for the update, starting to think about taking a drive.

I really wouldn't as the whole area of rain is decaying. I'd wait and see if something else pops up.