Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st July 2013 onwards

[Moleyroley]

There is heavy downpours too

[Michelle Baker]

I really hope you are proven wrong! ðŸ˜

[Costa Del Fal]

My musings for the West Midlands region:

 

Its about the instability in the upper atmosphere. We now have a plume destabilising and its usually down the spine of that plume which have the best chances. With upper winds being S or SSE this is PERFECT for the West Midlands. Very 28th July 2008 esque. Elevated storms mean what happens at the surface is of little regard really. That ever advancing plume North may be enough to sustain the storms for a while. 

 

Tonight id say a 40-60% chance of an elevated thunderstorm affecting Gloucester, Worcester, Bromsgrove, Kidderminster, West Midlands and maybe into Southern Staffs. Being elevated, dont expect much Thunder but lots of beautiful lightning possible and some rain. Storms may become more surface based as daybreak occurs. 

 

Then tomorrow afternoon upper winds remain very similar so expect more of the same however now more surfaced based until overnight so more chances of severe weather. Some models hinting at more activity tomorrow night. From Tuesday midday, risks transfer to the East.

 

So a good 3 or so chances here guys!

[Duane S.]

Flashes getting brighter and more frequesnt, fork lightning visable to the SE. VERY VERY large drops now falling

[Michelle Baker]

I really don't want to go out tonight as I want to save my petrol for tomorrow night with more severe/widespread storm potential but if it carries on like this I'll be itching for a car ride south.I don't think it will get this far north though but I wait to be proven wrong.

Where do you think you'll be heading to tomorrow? I'm working til 5 so I really hope it's in the evening

[butler_son]

Wind has just picked up out of nowhere. Just been outside with the camera and got sod all, the flashes were too far away to make any impact. But there are flashes. May try and head out again when I hear thunder.

[swebby]

However other cells are forming near Exeter.

 

Just came back from the east side of Exeter and the cell that I could see building up over Exmouth/woodbury was being lit up like a Christmas tree.  Very picturesque seeing the top of the clouds lighting up with the full moon just above them.

[Wilxy]

Just seen another faint flash of lightning

[chapmanslade]

Anyone else a bit surprised that estofex hasn't issued any warnings?

It is a voluntary service so not always active

[Michelle Baker]

Where do you think you'll be heading to tomorrow? I'm working til 5 so I really hope it's in the evening

Sorry that sounded like I was planning on joining you lol! I just meant I hope the storms kick off after I've finished work!

[Allseasons-Si]

I really don't want to go out tonight as I want to save my petrol for tomorrow night with more severe/widespread storm potential but if it carries on like this I'll be itching for a car ride south.

I don't think it will get this far north though but I wait to be proven wrong.

Go with your gut instinct AWD,you can always re-fuel tomorrow

 

you might be proven wrong,the storms have past the first hurdle(the channel),if you have nothing to get up for(work etc)go for it

[AWD]

Where do you think you'll be heading to tomorrow? I'm working til 5 so I really hope it's in the evening

Overnight/early hours of Tuesday morning look like prime time but of course, timing can fluctuate.I don't know where I'm heading yet, it all depends on where storms develop and the direction of travel. I have a few places in mind but I won't decide until things start happening.- Minchenhampton Common- Portishead if they hit the channel- Old Severn Bridge- Toddington

[AWD]

Go with your gut instinct AWD,you can always re-fuel tomorrow

you might be proven wrong,the storms have past the first hurdle(the channel),if you have nothing to get up for(work etc)go for it

I can't refuel tomorrow, I'm skint until payday on Friday.

Don't think it will go down to well if I ask my Old Man for a score so I can go chase some lightning. lol.

I'm going to hold back for now as most of it looks like elevated lightning for now which I can see from miles away where I am now.

[chapmanslade]

These storms are not 'imports' from France they are cells forming in the destabilising plume moving north (the plume that is). They seem to be proliferating significantly now over the Channel and very electrically active. Hants / Dorset / Somerset and counties directly north of them should get something in the next few hours. The cells seem to be pulse type storms with rapid development and activity but then fizzling out and being replaced by new ones.

[Freddie123]

In that case I'll open the blinds and see what I can see.

[Wilxy]

In that case I'll open the blinds and see what I can see.

 

Seen 2 more flashes look S

[weatherobsuk]

Good news is that the channel cells are moving north, just need the murk from the North Sea to beggar off somewhere else now.

[Freddie123]

Just seen one. Thanks!

[texel]

http://www.exmouthcam.co.uk/webcam/

[Allseasons-Si]

I can't refuel tomorrow, I'm skint until payday on Friday.

Don't think it will go down to well if I ask my Old Man for a score so I can go chase some lightning. lol.

I'm going to hold back for now as most of it looks like elevated lightning for now which I can see from miles away where I am now.

Ok,best of luck for tomorrow,i have got to get some shut eye,up at 5am and i will be strait on here after 2pm for latest updates

 

best of luck everyone,night.

Edited July 21, 2013 by allseasons-si

[PeterDoswell]

All looking good for Hampshire . Storms as I said earlier due to hit Isle Of Wight South Coast Hampshire Southampton Portsmouth In Next hour and a half Bring it On  

[Lazz]

Ok,best of luck for tomorrow,i have got to get some shut eye,up at 5am and i will be strait on here after 2pm for latest updates

 

best of luck everyone,night.

 

goodnight dude!

[Darren Bown]

Interesting metO seemed to have got their forecast from early this afternoon correct for this evening, but since changed it to take away the storms now battering the s coast by 5pm!

[Tom Jarvis]

All looking good for Hampshire . Storms as I said earlier due to hit Isle Of Wight South Coast Hampshire Southampton Portsmouth In Next hour and a half Bring it On

can you blow them 50 miles estwoods towards me lol Edited July 21, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[TheToastPeople]

Just been outside and the moon looks slightly orange, some low fast moving cloud has appeared in the last hour. Cant wait for tomorrow!!