Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th July 2013

[rich1974]

Yesterday there was a Yellow warning for London, EA and the SE - they said Suffolk, I am in West Suffolk and so pretty hard to miss. It's been sunny all day clouding over at 4 pm and a brief rain shower at 5 pm, now cloudy and barely drizzling. The Met O are just making fools of themselves and fools of us for paying for their fat pensions. They can't even get the next 24 hours right, let alone the next 50 years. Perhaps, as they've been forced to change tack from 'climate change' to 'weird weather' they have to issue a quota of warnings a year for the statistics — so they're now issuing Yellow warnings for a bit of rain lasting barely 30 minutes. Ridiculous.

I love what you've written, i'm so glad it's not just me that's totally fed up with seeing BBC forecast maps showing flash flooding for my area and in the end nothing happens, BBC WEATHER BOSSES STOP MAKING THINGS SOUND WORSE THAN WHAT THEY ARE, PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO LOOSE TRUST IN YOU.

[rich1974]

If someone gave me £82 million a year, I reckon I'd manage to do a better job than these clowns or at least employ someone who could. Yellow and Amber warnings should only be issued for exceptional weather. They forecast a cool summer. That was wrong. Their forecasts are so way off target they're a joke.

Well said.

[rich1974]

Can someone prove to me that there was not heavier enough rain over the SE(yellow zone) to warrant a yellow warning?The rain rates in places did meet the warning criteria, the zone in which it covered does not mean everywhere would receive the large amounts or heavy rainfall forecast, these rainfalls can be varied and local, the only time as far as I know to use more local warning's, (example: London) during thundery outbreaks is where homegrown thunderstorms develop locally, how can we know where exactly gets the heaviest downpours locally from such an imported system?   (Edit - as on a previous post I showed that the SE was covered by heavy rainfall with embedded intense cells and thunder so the warnings where there for that reason) and also further north there is heavy rainfall which could turn more prolonged and heavier maybe thundery)

I've travelled between Oxford and London a number of times today and not once did I see any rain that was really heavy.

[ZONE 51]

The fact is the risk was there for the full-on thunderstorms this changed during the afternoon resulting in the forecasters updates on warnings changing, they did say that the risk of severe storms was now lower than before (can't remember the exact words) that was I think an update at 1210pm? on the warnings.

@rich74, fair enough you didn't get the heavy stuff so your thoughts on this are different to those that have received it.  

[nitro_deluxe]

Not seen nor heard rain like this for years, let alone months..

[rich1974]

The fact is the risk was there for the full-on thunderstorms this changed during the afternoon resulting in the forecasters updates on warnings changing, they did say that the risk of severe storms was now lower than before (can't remember the exact words) that was I think an update at 1210pm? on the warnings.@rich74, fair enough you didn't get the heavy stuff so your thoughts on this are different to those that have received it.

Mate I just think I've got the hump like many others on here, we keep being told of extreme weather heading our way and it never happens, I wasn't expecting thunder storms today but the BBC did forecast huge amounts of rain which failed to happen, anyway I guess the gardens would do much better having steady light rain than flash flooding, gives it more time to soak in.

[CongletonHeat]

Not seen nor heard rain like this for years, let alone months..

was like this all the time last "summer"

[MrSunshine]

Complete downpour here right now!

[Bluebreezer54]

I rarely criticise, and often defend the Met Office but good grief their forecast temperatures were way off the mark Saturday in this area. There is one heck of a difference between the predicted 23c (73f ) and the actual 29.5c ( 85f ).

[Richie V]

Just reached 60mm here. MENTAL!

[robt]

Wind just picked up greatly, just as the tail end of the rain system seems to be passing through.

 

 

I do like the look of the 3 'cells' just forming off the NW French coast though, if they follow the same route in as the rest of the stuff..

[Norfolk Sheep]

5mm rain is hardly torrential, especially when you were hoping for (and desperate for) a lot more. Not even a puddle in the driveway, and definitely not worth a warning, which was still in place at midnight, hours after it should have been removed.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Just woke up to find some lovely showers/thunderstorms crossing over towards Devon. The big one furthest E is heading pretty much towards Newton Poppleford, at the moment! Plus, it's producing lots of thunder!

Edited July 28, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Weather-history]

If someone gave me £82 million a year, I reckon I'd manage to do a better job than these clowns or at least employ someone who could. Yellow and Amber warnings should only be issued for exceptional weather.They forecast a cool summer. That was wrong. Their forecasts are so way off target they're a joke.

There were some joke predictions last night in this thread. We were told that NW England would probably record the least amount of rain, we were told that nowhere would record more than 15mm from this even though some stations had already had before the time of post was made. We were told it was going tits up before it even got started despite the models said it was going to get heavier as the night went on. Predictions not based on fact but based on how many toys were thrown out of the pram. I rather give 82 million to professionals than some of the tantrum, histrionics that were around yesterday evening. Edited July 28, 2013 by Weather-history

[Polar Bear]

Well last night we certainly did her heavy rain and it was torrential for a bit warranting I believe a warning considering we have had no rain for about 3 weeks. In autumn / winter we probably wouldn't have thought twice about seeing that amount of rain... Nor indeed the wash out that was last summer.

I was under a gazebo at a BBQ and believe me it was at first though oh ok this is heavy.. We can handle to we better get inside before the gazebo collapses. So it was hefty with some lighting flung in for good measure

The only downside is the met office and BBC have got the timing wrong Friday pm and yes I do accept the we are an island reason for some difficulties but it was just a little careless when even I looked on the radar that night shortly after the BBC announced the weekend forecast and it was pretty damn clear to query what system? I get the feeling that most at the met clear off home early on a Friday and don't do Friday evening or evenings in the week work just like a fair few government offices ( not all, but a fair few) ..

As for today ill make my own judgement. Humid and dry. A threat of storms which pass over but nothing

[Supacell]

A lot of heavy rain here, it was still pouring down when I briefly woke up at around 3:30am. Accordingly some parts around here have had between 50-75mm of rain overnight. That amount of rain certainly warrants a warning in my view, during the thunderstorms yesterday evening the roads were flooded and visibility was very much reduced at times.

 

Onto today now, which looks to be a day of sunshine and showers for most whilst the area of rain from overnight takes its time clearing the NE. Showers look to be most prolific, with highest risk of thunderstorms, across more western areas.

 

Already there are thunderstorms around in the SW amongst a mass of showers. Showers and thunderstorms will break out more widely across the western and northern parts of the country today, with more scattered showers further south and east. Anywhere is at risk of a thundery one but the highest risk appears to be across SW, Wales, NW England, N Midlands and across Ireland with CAPE values of up to 1500j/kg progged through Wales and central/western Ireland this afternoon on the GFS. A caveat to this would be that NMM does not currently forecast anything like these levels of CAPE but still goes for a broad swathe of CAPE values of around the 500-800 J/kg mark.

 

Around 20knts of deep layer shear may allow some organisation of storms but in truth I think severe storm conditions are unlikely. However with PWAT values of around 25mm, ELT of -45c and CAPE values over 1000j/kg (should this be the case) there would be frequent lightning, torrential rain and hail to around 2cm in diameter across the areas within the red box within any stronger storms. There is a risk of localised flooding in any areas whereby storms occur, but maybe more so across NW England and the N Midlands after all that rain last night has left the ground very wet.

 

Storms may continue overnight across western parts of the country, especially Wales and SW.

 

Edited July 28, 2013 by Supacell

[Luke Best]

There were some joke predictions last night in this thread. We were told that NW England would probably record the least amount of rain, we were told that nowhere would record more than 15mm from this even though some stations had already had before the time of post was made. We were told it was going tits up before it even got started despite the models said it was going to get heavier as the night went on.Predictions not based on fact but based on how many toys were thrown out of the pram.I rather give 82 million to professionals than some of the tantrum, histrionics that were around yesterday evening.

 

Broadly speaking, I believe the Met/BBC forecasts were largely correct.  I think that much of the disappointment stems from the sparsity of lightning strikes, but this was always likely to be the case as the forecast indicated that the very eastern flank was going to be the most electrically active (and as forecast, Benelux once again enjoyed the best of the light show).

 

Met Office amber warnings mean Be Prepared, and flash flooding has been reported in Yorkshire.  Yellow warnings mean Be Aware, and I don't think that was an unfair shout given the potential of the system yesterday.

Edited July 28, 2013 by Luke Best

[Jane Louise]

New thread here Locking this one now. 64 pages wow!

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77394-convective-storm-discussion-28th-july-2013/