Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th July 2013

[Mesoscale]

If things stay well above average throughout this year, if we get a very mild Winter, if we get a very mild Spring 2014 and then another heat blast in Summer 2014 to warm that dreaded Channel up...we MAY, just MAY get a plume that delivers.

Haha i like the enthasis on may, either it starts getting its act together or me and the UK will have a falling out and I won't be sleeping on the couch! I will be out the door moving somewhere me and the weather have more things incommon lol

[Supacell]

There is another chance at a plume on Thursday night looking at the latest GFS and this has had cross model agreement for a few runs now. Met Office mountain forecast for Thursday also warns of a risk of thundery showers later.

 

Between now and then there looks to be some potent thunderstorms around in western areas tomorrow, especially the NW. Widespread convection for most of us on Monday with some thunderstorms possible on Tuesday. Not a bad outlook really

[Thunder Snow]

bone dry here

[nitro_deluxe]

There is another chance at a plume on Thursday night looking at the latest GFS and this has had cross model agreement for a few runs now. Met Office mountain forecast for Thursday also warns of a risk of thundery showers later. Between now and then there looks to be some potent thunderstorms around in western areas tomorrow, especially the NW. Widespread convection for most of us on Monday with some thunderstorms possible on Tuesday. Not a bad outlook really

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!?????????

bone dry here

Is it slightly elevated..

[Eskimo]

Haha i like the enthasis on may, either it starts getting its act together or me and the UK will have a falling out and I won't be sleeping on the couch! I will be out the door moving somewhere me and the weather have more things incommon lol

I'm too young to remember the big storms of the early to mid nineties so I'm used to disappointment, but a few years ago when I began looking at this website and knowing that the continent was having big storms and we weren't, a strong sense of jealousy was overshadowing that built up patience and now I'm ready to explode!!

[NUT]

Does look like the main event has fizzled out to a massive band of heavy rain

[Darren Bown]

Does look like the main event has fizzled out to a massive band of heavy rain

Looks it ATM, but I'm struggling to find from the radar what the metoffice are talking about to issue an amber warning for NE England, which makes me think something is still set to develop?

[MrSunshine]

Does look like the main event has fizzled out to a massive band of heavy rain

 

In all fairness that was the main concern regarding this particular event.

[Mesoscale]

I'm too young to remember the big storms of the early to mid nineties so I'm used to disappointment, but a few years ago when I began looking at this website and knowing that the continent was having big storms and we weren't, a strong sense of jealousy was overshadowing that built up patience and now I'm ready to explode!!

Yeah I was young aswell but I can remember a few corkers because I used to be terrified of them, one night we had three huge storms in a row and I remember seeing my dad out as he got on his bike going to work at about 6 in the morning and it was pouring rain.I have a feeling this is going to be the end of the snowy winters if we continue like this though, I wish there was some sort of happy medium you know.

[weatherobsuk]

Things prepping up near Lincoln somewhat, I think i'll call it a night soon enough given the last lightning nearby was half an hour ago.

[laserguy]

The Met Office forecasts Pork Bellies will lead the markets on Monday am, coffee beans and orange juice are suspected to rise but a falling corn crop will lead to an unstable market. Meanwhile, they haven't a scooby what the weather will hold!!

 

Another EPIC forecasting fail - from the same muppets who gleefully tell us what the climate will be like 30 years hence. Ignore them, ignore them all. Gonna drag out me pine cones and seaweed and in all honesty my big toe joint is throbbing like mad tonight. What could it mean?

[MrSunshine]

Looks it ATM, but I'm struggling to find from the radar what the metoffice are talking about to issue an amber warning for NE England, which makes me think something is still set to develop?

 

Another poor decision by the Met Office to issue an amber warning for that area in my opinion.

[Darren Bown]

What also strikes me, is the ppn is moving north as a whole, but parts of the rain is moving SE to NW, if you catch my drift?

[nitro_deluxe]

Does look like the main event has fizzled out to a massive band of heavy rain

Yup..my betting likes of Belgium, Holland are rubbing their foreheads with some relief

[cheese]

Met have expanded the Amber warning down to Yorkshire and NW England, but the rain here is light and getting lighter.. about 1mm so far.. it needs to get a move on. I suspect the amber warnings on this side of the Pennines are unjustified, but we'll see won't we? What do I expect from living in one of the driest parts of England?

Edited July 27, 2013 by cheese

[paul m]

Another EPIC forecasting fail - from the same muppets who gleefully tell us what the climate will be like 30 years hence. Ignore them, ignore them all. Gonna drag out me pine cones and seaweed and in all honesty my big toe joint is throbbing like mad tonight. What could it mean?

Trip to the hospital??????

[nitro_deluxe]

Seem to have gained an outside swimming pool? Lovely...

[Darren Bown]

Met have expanded the Amber warning down to Yorkshire and NW England, but the rain here is light and getting lighter.. about 1mm so far.. it needs to get a move on. I suspect the amber warnings on this side of the Pennines are unjustified, but we'll see won't we? What do I expect from living in one of the driest parts of England?

If you read that warning, it states that the N Midlands will see heavy rain in the early hours, then N England late morning. Aren't we already having the heavy rain? Or to the metoffice know something we don't?

[Paul90]

Here in Stockport had a few flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder with  telly going off for a few seconds - more than perhaps we were expecting

 

Yes we did and I will settle for that, although Antwerp, Brussels, Bruges, Liege etc will laugh their at us. 

[cheese]

If you read that warning, it states that the N Midlands will see heavy rain in the early hours, then N England late morning. Aren't we already having the heavy rain? Or to the metoffice know something we don't?

Well, you guys are getting heavy rain, but we aren't. Either they expect this rain to push back NE, or something will pop up in association with that low tracking up the E coast.. but nothing as of yet.

Edited July 27, 2013 by cheese

[Supacell]

Met have expanded the Amber warning down to Yorkshire and NW England, but the rain here is light and getting lighter.. about 1mm so far.. it needs to get a move on. I suspect the amber warnings on this side of the Pennines are unjustified, but we'll see won't we? What do I expect from living in one of the driest parts of England?

 

I am now within the Amber warning region also, but although the rain is still going here it is not that heavy anymore and after what looks like a brief heavier pulse pushing up from the SE there is little more after that..... confused.com

[Mesoscale]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQMpPC6yQO0

[rich1974]

See I said earlier this morning about these so called BBC weather warnings, another failure.

[cheese]

I am now within the Amber warning region also, but although the rain is still going here it is not that heavy anymore and after what looks like a brief heavier pulse pushing up from the SE there is little more after that..... confused.com

My feelings towards the Met Office right now:

Edited July 27, 2013 by cheese

[MrSunshine]

I am now within the Amber warning region also, but although the rain is still going here it is not that heavy anymore and after what looks like a brief heavier pulse pushing up from the SE there is little more after that..... confused.com

 

Met Office amber warning for the North West is only valid from 00:05 Sunday morning also, isn't it bad enough now to be valid straight away? (Scratches head). I think the case with the Met Office is that they issue these flash amber warnings long after the horse has bolted so to speak.