Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th July 2013

[The PIT]

A very small band of heavy rain moving north. It won't give 50 mm of rain that some are expecting unless it stalls.

Places away from the warning zone that I saw earlier may have exceeded expected totals.

[tara303]

Any chance this system will head westwards towards me?

 

Some lively looking rain off the coast to my south west also...

[Snowshine]

No thunder heard by myself today or yesterday. Met Office (Enviroment Agency) has issued an Amber Warning and yellow warning, unsurprisingly both missing Warwickshire! The warnings don't seem to accurate however, already about 25mm of rain has fallen here and is still falling and more rain, even a thunderstorm is forecasted for tomorrow, and adding onto that it looks like the rest of the week will include heavy rain or showers for my area and most of the U.K. In all.

[The PIT]

The whole thing is rotating, which gives a whole new perspective on things. The southern side of the rain is moving west to east, while the northern edge and central parts are toppling over from east to west. Very interesting ATM, and may change rainfall intensity and location overnight.

Not really just a narrow band of heavy rain. I'm not going to be getting much more than 10mm tomorrow morning.

By the way once again wide spread thunder wasn't predicted just hight rainfall which hasn't happened as off yet.

Edited July 27, 2013 by The PIT

[azores92]

The whole thing is rotating, which gives a whole new perspective on things. The southern side of the rain is moving west to east, while the northern edge and central parts are toppling over from east to west. Very interesting ATM, and may change rainfall intensity and location overnight.

was also thinking that, will definitely stick around with you guys for sometime tonight i would've thought, whereas it should leave the west midlands in the next couple of hours anyway. any ideas on totals up manchester way?

[Dean E]

How different things were in the 90s and early 2000s. I remember having at least 10 or so summer nights with torrential rain, ridiculous winds, hail and yes constant thunder and lightning that lasted for over 6 hours.

 

Sadly things are no longer the same, with every single setup in the past few years going NE towards the Near continental.

 

I think people need to realise how volatile our climate is on our tiny little island. I won't go into detail, but the Met Office are considered as one of the best National (and global) Meteorological organisations in the world. They have some of the best computers and human input that anyone could wish for! But as we've seen many times recently, they've been wrong. But why mock them and loose trust? They are right probably 95% of the time and its amazing its that high! Especially in the UK!

 

Our climate is changing, we've seen this in many aspects. Colder winters and cooler summers (This being the exception).

 

I believe that's what needs to be looked at now, why this events are no longer a 'normal summertime' event. 

 

I'm sorry to go on, but we need some sense here.

 

SM

[stainesbloke]

Well this 'event' yet again failed to deliver more than a half hour showed, little lightning/thunder. After all those warnings. I knew it. El Yawnio!!

[nitro_deluxe]

A very small band of heavy rain moving north. It won't give 50 mm of rain that some are expecting unless it stalls.Places away from the warning zone that I saw earlier may have exceeded expected totals.

No gauge afraid to say..radar doesn't do justice either..not surprised to have had near on 40mm by now. Almost tropical like in nature, my guess is if this had been thundery in nature? it probably would have cleared off by now! Still zero wind, with windows ajar, a fast flowing hosepipe sound since late yesterday evening in fact..ongoing. Edited July 27, 2013 by triple_x1

[Cheshire Freeze]

Lashing down here, surprised we've had no thunder given the intensity.

Edited July 27, 2013 by CreweCold

[MrSunshine]

Lashing down here, surprised we've had no thunder given the intensity.

 

If it's not electrified it's not electrified simple as that regardless of the intensity. Sounds like it's stopped here, can't hear it outside even with my window open.

[Cloud 10]

It's a cruel..cruel! Bring back the 80s storms plumes whatever..

 

Questions were being asked about lack of storms even back then....

 

[Dancerwithwings]

Here its been chucking it down for a good 5 hrs now and it keeps on coming not much of the flashy stuff though, But it was never about that it was always about the intense rain were having,

Sorry some of us are having

[Cloudwatcher]

Lashing down here, surprised we've had no thunder given the intensity.

 

Moderate rainfall here. Nothing of much interest. Disappointing day, we had the humidity and heat but as usual, nothing else. Maybe 2015 will bring something.

[MrSunshine]

Moderate rainfall here. Nothing of much interest. Disappointing day, we had the humidity and heat but as usual, nothing else. Maybe 2015 will bring something.

 

Another European Cup hopefully from a biased point of view of course!

[ZONE 51]

Can someone prove to me that there was not heavier enough rain over the SE(yellow zone) to warrant a yellow warning?

The rain rates in places did meet the warning criteria, the zone in which it covered does not mean everywhere would receive the large amounts or heavy rainfall forecast, these rainfalls can be varied and local, the only time as far as I know to use more local warning's, (example: London) during thundery outbreaks is where homegrown thunderstorms develop locally, how can we know where exactly gets the heaviest downpours locally from such an imported system? 

 

 

(Edit - as on a previous post I showed that the SE was covered by heavy rainfall with embedded intense cells and thunder so the warnings where there for that reason) and also further north there is heavy rainfall which could turn more prolonged and heavier maybe thundery) 

Edited July 28, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Dean E]

Can someone prove to me that there was not heavier enough rain over the SE(yellow zone) to warrant a yellow warning?

The rain rates in places did meet the warning criteria, the zone in which it covered does not mean everywhere would receive the large amounts or heavy rainfall forecast, these rainfalls can be varied and local, the only time as far as I know to use more local warning's, (example: London) during thundery outbreaks is where homegrown thunderstorms develop locally, how can we know where exactly gets the heaviest downpours locally from such an imported system? 

 

At this current time, no computer model or human input can predict exactly where the heaviest rain would be. An Imported system is always a headache to forecast, hence the wide warning area. Some will always miss out.

 

SM 

[rosgar]

Can someone prove to me that there was not heavier enough rain over the SE(yellow zone) to warrant a yellow warning?

The rain rates in places did meet the warning criteria, the zone in which it covered does not mean everywhere would receive the large amounts or heavy rainfall forecast, these rainfalls can be varied and local, the only time as far as I know to use more local warning's, (example: London) during thundery outbreaks is where homegrown thunderstorms develop locally, how can we know where exactly gets the heaviest downpours locally from such an imported system? 

Ironically, here in the Wrexham area it has been raining for around 6 hours, torrential for the last 3 hours, with a fair rivulet running down our hill which may well flood houses further down, yet we are not even in any of the warning areas, despite clear radar indication that we would get a fair share of downpours. Maybe it's because of the lack of thunder activity, either expected or received (we never usually do anyway, one thunderstorm in 4 years)?

Still warranted a warning!

Edited July 28, 2013 by rosgar

[nitro_deluxe]

Seem to remember when warnings were pretty much nil..or non existent? Now they're colour coded...

It was either black or white back then..no half measures, politically correct phrases try to please everyone all of the time! Or keep schtum..

It's the flamin' weather - been going on for thousands of years plus, goodness sakes, warnings are for wimps

[Dancerwithwings]

"Wrong thread" (Things we take for granted) WEATHER WARNING

[nitro_deluxe]

It's all poppycock if you ask me...warnings? Warnings are all well and good if you're a big ship floating on a big far reaching ocean...which many are.Sat in a comfy armchair in front of a PC or equivalent..c'mon, reality check alert. Next warnings - curtains moved yellow alert or standby kiddies sandpit may get ever so slightly soggy, ooh shock horror school run alert..best get the 4x4 out we have mizzle...I blame the nanny state hehe! Nite nite weather lovers

"Wrong thread" (Things we take for granted) WEATHER WARNING

Did nothing for the dinosaurs... Edited July 28, 2013 by triple_x1

[ZONE 51]

As on a previous post I showed that the SE was covered by heavy rainfall with embedded intense cells and thunder so the warnings were there for that reason, and also further north there is heavy rainfall which could turn more prolonged and heavier maybe thundery. 

Edited July 28, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Staffordshire]

How about later on then guys, dare i say it cheshire looks the place to be...

[nitro_deluxe]

Let's ban warnings job done..save all the hassle lol, weather eh? Day it pleases everyone all of the time, then hell really could freeze over. Sorry mild lovers...no offence eh?

How about later on then guys, dare i say it cheshire looks the place to be...

Nooooooooooohhhhhhhhh!!!!!!??

[CongletonHeat]

How about later on then guys, dare i say it cheshire looks the place to be...

just got soaked coming from pub. had enough of this garbage now.

[ZONE 51]

Not everyone looks at ppn radars, satellite images and the models to keep up with the changes, the warnings are there for national safety and awareness of potentially severe weather and can be viewed as a zoned area indicated by a color code of severity level and what type of conditions generally expected in that zone by a symbol (rain, snow..) these can also be viewed by those that cannot read the text forecast. Warnings zones move around unexpectedly as new model data/radar/satellite data and other upper air data is collected. 

Edited July 28, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm