Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[TonyH]

Warm enough to beside the pool here Mushy, a sunny 25c.

[Tamara]

i dislike this time of the year most... i dislike the weather, i dislike the season... why? because we have to go through autumn and winter before my fav seasons of spring and summer are here. its highly   unlikely now that we will get a 'hot' spell, warm enough to enjoy the pool, and everything that goes with heat. the flowers are finishing, its over...

 

and thats what i get the feeling of off the latest runs. the ecm has joined the gfs in keeping the azh to our west. now it should be close enough to ensure alot of fine sunny mainly dry weather in post bank holiday, and thats not to be sniffed at!

 

oh...and im unlikely to be posting in here much now, i like looking for heat and warmth, i dislike the cold lovers party that invades this place in winter, hero worshiping cold rampers and getting scorned if one dares to disagree.

Cheer up! We have another week or so of official summer yet.

 

Besides that, I've just been out and bought some pretty autumn coloured flowers (Cyclamen, Chrysanths etc) for the patio and courtyard and its a beautiful afternoon to be potting them up after my current little tea break . Plenty more time for pleasantly warm weather yet despite the daylight getting shorter and shorter. We've seen this type of weather into October in many years with temps into the mid 20's..long before one starts looking for snow etc, or it becomes possible for anything significant to occur. For me, as a big fan of cold and snowy weather  I am long way off anticipating that yet..its a good few months away at this time.

 

Following a distinctly unpalatable B/H Saturday for many, I still think that next week holds prospects for improvement and the return of atlantic/Azores ridging and some further nice weather - not everyone likely to benefit, but then that is the UK for you at any time of year with the changeable climate we have

[DAVID SNOW]

The latest GFS(12Z)has a MAXIMUM of 26C for England tomorrow. A nice warm day.

[Summer Sun]

High pressure just starting to build on Sunday for the north if this continues Monday may be a decent day by the UK's standards for a bank holiday

 

The latest GFS(12Z)has a MAXIMUM of 26C for England tomorrow. A nice warm day.

 

And with rain coming in from the west things could go bang in some spots.

 

I personally think somewhere will be higher than that with 30c possible

Edited August 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[johnholmes]

The latest GFS(12Z)has a MAXIMUM of 26C for England tomorrow. A nice warm day.

 

add the usual 3C it often needs where the sun comes out=bingo, what is your problem David?

[J10]

Hardly heat and hardly a wave though!

Perhaps we should wave goodbye to the heat.

Warm enough to beside the pool here Mushy, a sunny 25c.

oh i wish! 22c here but spotting with rain under overcast skies...

Very pleasent down here today it must be said. Temps around 24c with wall to wall sunshine since mid morning. [Makes up for yesterday]

After a bit of cloud over the next few days. The pattern is looking pretty good for SW areas with HP quite close by.

Edited August 22, 2013 by J10

[Summer Sun]

Continued signals this afternoon for a deep area of low pressure to develop over Greenland and Iceland next week and high pressure in turn builds over the UK

 

 

UKMO is still moving in the settled direction

 

Edited August 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[draztik]

Simply put, next week looks gorgeous! With the west fairing best!

not often we're the filler!

Edited August 22, 2013 by draztik

[Paul]

Just moved a bunch of mostly non-model related stuff into the model chat thread, so if your post is missing it'll be there..

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

[mushymanrob]

well both the gfs and ukmo suggest the azh ridging in towards us (as opposed to remaining to our west), the gfs progresses beyond the ukmo 144 and if varifies would give us a few very nice days... with the 10c upper over the southern half of the uk...

 

both charts @ t144, lets see if the ecm follows suit later

 

[DAVID SNOW]

add the usual 3C it often needs where the sun comes out=bingo, what is your problem David?

 

Problem John? I was just stating what the GFS model has as a max temp for tomorrow right or wrong

btw I agree the gfs  does go a bit amiss with its temp forecasts, it had my area down to max out at 24c today but as of 1800hrs the top temp is only 20c.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z op run shows the northern arm of the jet firing up and this puts extra pressure on the azores/atlantic anticyclone trying to build in, there is some locking of horns as the anticyclone get's into a large scale battle against some beefed up atlantic depressions which have a very autumnal look about them with the azores high trying valiantly to keep the uk in a more summery pattern, this run shows the high pressure still coming out on top but it leaves some battle scars, occasionally the anticyclone is forced back into the atlantic as lows dive southeastwards just to the northeast of the BI which drags much cooler air down from greenland at times during FI but once again, the further south and west you are, the drier and brighter it would be with temperatures close to average and sometimes pleasantly on the warm side but for the north of the BI, temperatures much closer to average and occasionally below with the north of the BI catching most of the unsettled weather, this run is actually quite similar to the 6z and could again be an outlier with little support, especially when you consider how much better the gefs mean is in comparison.

[Milhouse]

ECM 12z not so keen for low pressure to dive southwards next week. It has moved more inline with the UKMO and GFS. Next week is looking progressively dry now according to the big 3. The op runs do shift around quite a bit but the 12z looks more inline with this mornings 0z mean.

 

 

[Milhouse]

Plenty of dry, pleasant and perhaps sunny weather persisting until the end of the month, according to the ECM.

 

[Summer Sun]

Plenty of dry, pleasant and perhaps sunny weather persisting until the end of the month, according to the ECM.

 

 

Lovely charts from ECM tonight perfect way to end summer with high pressure firmly in charge

 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's GEFS 12z mean looks pretty settled, very much as the 06z and 00z mean before it and the earlier Ecm 00z ensemble mean, the azores/atlantic anticyclone has control from early next week until well into september, the Gfs 12z op run looked very unstable with the azores high looking like it would be blasted away by those vigorous north atlantic depressions but the 12z mean looks assured with a more benign outlook, not warm all the time as some cooler atlantic air occasionally comes down around the eastern side of the ridge with more cloud but generally it looks fine and pleasantly warm, any rain confined to the far north as weak fronts brush through the weakest part of the ridge with more of an atlantic flow.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Stunning outputs.

HP in charge bar the odd day and what a way to end a superb summer.

ECM is sublime.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z operational run really clicks into top gear from T+144 hours onwards and becomes poetry in motion as the azores/atlantic anticyclone builds in strongly and intensifies which solidifies it's position over the uk even more, any residual cooler atlantic air next week soon gets swamped by warmer uppers and eventually the ecm is showing a perfect summery outlook with lots of strong late august sunshine and light winds with temps rising significantly towards the end of the run with mid 20's celsius being widespread by the end, it would be the perfect ending to a memorable summer, as captain Jean-Luc Picard used to say ...make it so.  ........BANK 

[draztik]

The updated EC32 has gone from a fairly settled pattern to a more mobile Atlantic based outlook, with bouts of low pressure crossing the UK after a fairly settled period up until 7 sept. After this date, the model shows low pressure becoming dominant. Also, the control model has switched too, now showing low pressure systems cross the nation from t294 thru 360, with below average temps.

all in all, a very mixed outlook. It seems to indicate a relatively pleasant pattern next week and thru into the weekend, but then becomes fairly unsettled after this time period.

[mushymanrob]

interesting time for storm lovers... hot southerlies being met with cooler northwesterlies over the uk.. gonna be some very heavy rain about, potential for some huge thunderstorms where these airmasses converge.

 

still no clear signal this morning as to the extent of the settling down next week... just how far in the azh ridges. but the outlook is fine, warm, sunny and dry, or less warm, less sunny and less dry. cant complain about that! (having given up on heat...lol)

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean is very pleasing this morning, even better than yesterday in my opinion, the azores/atlantic anticyclone looks very robust and the PFJ remains well to the north of the BI, there is high pressure link up followed by high pressure domination which should ensure a very satisfactory end to the memorable summer of 2013..and a fine and warm early autumn.

[Captain Shortwave]

The updated EC32 has gone from a fairly settled pattern to a more mobile Atlantic based outlook, with bouts of low pressure crossing the UK after a fairly settled period up until 7 sept. After this date, the model shows low pressure becoming dominant. Also, the control model has switched too, now showing low pressure systems cross the nation from t294 thru 360, with below average temps.

all in all, a very mixed outlook. It seems to indicate a relatively pleasant pattern next week and thru into the weekend, but then becomes fairly unsettled after this time period.

So.... that means half the EC32 near enough is settled. Add to that the odds of the latter half of the output verifying drops off significantly as seen over the last couple of months as mid to long range models do chop and change regulary which is to be expected at 3-4 weeks out.

As for output I will let the charts do the talking

ECM T144

 

UKMO

 

GFS

 

GEM

 

All look pretty good and fairly similar given the timeframe.

Edited August 23, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

WOOHOO check out the Ecm 00z operational run, it's a peach, turns into anticyclonic heaven, just like the 12z did last night and again we have high pressure link up followed by a robust azores/atlantic anticyclone that keeps the PFJ and those pesky lows well out of our way to the north, it looks like next week will bring a fitting finale to a very fine summer..make it so 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z control run is another stonker with anticyclonic domination almost from start to finish, the only significant rain I can see is tonight and early tomorrow as heavy rain clears through but lingers in the east but then it's a gradually improving picture from sunday which turns into a fine and warm spell which takes care of the final days of summer and at least the early part of september, today will be hot in the southeast corner, rising to 29c 84f with a lot of sunshine.

[Summer Sun]

The updated EC32 has gone from a fairly settled pattern to a more mobile Atlantic based outlook, with bouts of low pressure crossing the UK after a fairly settled period up until 7 sept. After this date, the model shows low pressure becoming dominant. Also, the control model has switched too, now showing low pressure systems cross the nation from t294 thru 360, with below average temps.all in all, a very mixed outlook. It seems to indicate a relatively pleasant pattern next week and thru into the weekend, but then becomes fairly unsettled after this time period.

 

The problem with this EC32 thing is its always chopping and changing

Edited August 23, 2013 by Summer Sun