Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Yarmy]

The problem with this EC32 thing is its always chopping and changing

 If it didn't though, we wouldn't need this thread and we could all get on with our lives. 

[draztik]

Captain, you clearly didn't read my post properly, as you wouldn't be showing t144 had you. The monthly update concurs with what the ecm op is showing - a settled next week, a settled 10 days or so. Its what it shows after. Of course it will change, but the point i was highlighting was that it had changed from a settled long term outlook to a more unsettled one!

[Frosty.]

 If it didn't though, we wouldn't need this thread and we could all get on with our lives. 

I think the chopping and changing is fun, it keeps us all on our toes, the models are showing a nice benign fine and warm end to summer, that is the most important thing in my opinion.

[draztik]

The problem with this EC32 thing is its always chopping and changing

no more than any other model. Gfs being a prime example. I mean, the EC32 will change, but its a useful model for those seeking trends and patterns.

[Tamara]

Captain, you clearly didn't read my post properly, as you wouldn't be showing t144 had you. The monthly update concurs with what the ecm op is showing - a settled next week, a settled 10 days or so. Its what it shows after. Of course it will change, but the point i was highlighting was that it had changed from a settled long term outlook to a more unsettled one!

I think we best deal with the nearer term which can be plotted with greater reliability rather than the randomness of well beyond 10 days. On that basis illustrating a chart well within this period is a wise decision i would suggest.

 

Especially when we see this:

 

UKMO

 

ECM

 

GEM

 

 

GFS

 

 

Plus we can add the EPS members, which as suggested yesterday provide a good representation of all the above agreed model solutions as well as of course endorsing the opinion of the ECM operational itself.

 

 

So very impressive agreement for a return of the Azores High to ridge eastwards after the mixed fortunes of the Bank Holiday. It also has gone some way to endorse the comment suggestions of yesterday of the exaggerated trends to over amplify the jet stream and dig troughs too far south

 

On the basis of such impressive current agreement for the coming week, then it gives some sage credence to members discussing and putting up charts for that time period rather than dwelling instead, as a priority, on the fickleness of long range monthly models

 

Edit CS: I also just noticed you put some of those charts up earlier this morning. Apologies for duplication  But I think the point is still well illustrated that the earlier suggested pattern that the models tried to stray away from, has returned as the consistent theme in the foreseeable outlook

Edited August 23, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Captain Shortwave]

I guess in the end it's pretty typical UK weather, the settled weather was well picked up as a trend for the last third of the month and typically the nationwide blip is going to happen over the bank holiday weekend 

I guess it makes me feel a bit better about how things have developed as someone who put quite a bit of faith in the model output only to be brought back to Earth due to a couple of spoiler troughs. At least I might not be demoted down to bus-boy then 

Lesson learned to always check the anomaly charts to see if they agree with the operational output. Lets see if we can end August on a high.

September, who knows but I've found it the most reliable month for half decent weather over the past few years and would never write it off whatever the long-range forecasts say.

Edited August 23, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Downpour]

Cheer up! We have another week or so of official summer yet.

 

Besides that, I've just been out and bought some pretty autumn coloured flowers (Cyclamen, Chrysanths etc) for the patio and courtyard and its a beautiful afternoon to be potting them up after my current little tea break . Plenty more time for pleasantly warm weather yet despite the daylight getting shorter and shorter. We've seen this type of weather into October in many years with temps into the mid 20's..long before one starts looking for snow etc, or it becomes possible for anything significant to occur. For me, as a big fan of cold and snowy weather  I am long way off anticipating that yet..its a good few months away at this time.

 

Following a distinctly unpalatable B/H Saturday for many, I still think that next week holds prospects for improvement and the return of atlantic/Azores ridging and some further nice weather - not everyone likely to benefit, but then that is the UK for you at any time of year with the changeable climate we have

Official summer goes on for another four weeks – it's set by the cosmos not the Met Office. Last day of summer is September 20. 

[johnholmes]

gawd here we go again re what is winter, spring, summer etc. For the keeping of data the official season definitions have to be kept otherwise chaos would reign, but fine if anyone wishes to have their own seasons.

[Frosty.]

The latest Ecm 00z ensemble mean reinforces all the good things I had to say about the ecm 00z op run, the azores/atlantic anticyclone ridges in by the start of next week and never loses control from then on, only across the far north of the uk would there be any kind of unsettled weather as fronts brush around the top of the ridge but just about all parts of the uk would have a prolonged spell of fine and warm weather with temperatures generally into the low 20's celsius, nearer mid 20's c at times for the south/se, the PFJ stays way north of the uk along with those pesky lows, i'm very pleased with the output so far today ......and tonight's & tomorrows heavy rain could be the last significant rain for 10-14 days for most of us.

Edited August 23, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

Official summer goes on for another four weeks – it's set by the cosmos not the Met Office. Last day of summer is September 20. 

no, the meteorological autumn begins on september 1st..end of, nuff said

[snowking]

Shorter term it certainly looks like becoming settled and pleasant for much of the UK once again to end the month.

 

Longer term, in terms of the debate on the reliability of the EC32, thats one that could go on for weeks and weeks. What I must say is that I can't disagree too much with its suggestions beyond the opening days of September.

 

Pretty solid agreement on a phase 1 MJO setup:

 

 

These signals can always be slightly lagged, and indeed I suspect thats what we will see here. But when we look at what phase 1 brings us in to September:

 

 

So, are there any signs of such a signal yet from the 'standard' NWP as it were?

 

Well, as of yet actually no. I suspect this is a signal that will gather pace in the coming week. We can see some very small signs of a trough digging in to Europe on the NAEFS anomalies this morning:

 

 

But ultimately its a very weak signal and the trough shown there is far enough East to leave the UK under the influence of the azores ridge instead. Of course we may well end up with such a scenario - those MJO composites are far from full proof, but beyond the 5-7th September as a rough guide, I would be looking for a troughing signal to gain momentum at the moment.

 

SK

[ribster]

I think we best deal with the nearer term which can be plotted with greater reliability rather than the randomness of well beyond 10 days. On that basis illustrating a chart well within this period is a wise decision i would suggest.

 

 

Plus we can add the EPS members, which as suggested yesterday provide a good representation of all the above agreed model solutions as well as of course endorsing the opinion of the ECM operational itself.

 

 

 

So very impressive agreement for a return of the Azores High to ridge eastwards after the mixed fortunes of the Bank Holiday. It also has gone some way to endorse the comment suggestions of yesterday of the exaggerated trends to over amplify the jet stream and dig troughs too far south

 

On the basis of such impressive current agreement for the coming week, then it gives some sage credence to members discussing and putting up charts for that time period rather than dwelling instead, as a priority, on the fickleness of long range monthly models

 

Edit CS: I also just noticed you put some of those charts up earlier this morning. Apologies for duplication  But I think the point is still well illustrated that the earlier suggested pattern that the models tried to stray away from, has returned as the consistent theme in the foreseeable outlook

Wise words, otherwise you could end up thinking we are in the middle of a heatwave, when the reality is temps around 22c, cloudy with rain at times. Even this 'one day wonder' isn't delivering much of note. The models make fools out of no-one, that is left to ourselves...

[cobbett]

All looks good then for next week but I have one concern in that I'm off to Swansea for a long golf weekend from Fri 30th and without fail we have always had rain/gales for at least part of this weekend.

I've now told the party that this year will be different as all the models and anomaly charts are all as one for a high pressure dominated week to come so take the shorts and suncream !

I'm hoping to not have an epic fail on this so is there one model which is showing some unsettled conditions for next weekend so at least I can add a caveat of sorts just in case ! It all seems just too good to be true at the moment

[William of Walworth]

Myself and J10 both live in/near Swansea and I think we'd agree that pretty much all the current output agrees on a HP dominated outlook for next week into next weekend. The West looks Best for HP control as well.

[Polar Continental]

Hi everyone, for those interested, you can listen my latest thoughts on the weather over the next few days.

 

http://burtonweather.weebly.com/uploads/1/9/6/5/1965650/forecast-23-28-aug-2013.mp3

 

 

Twitter https://twitter.com/PaulCarfoot

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z operational run is better than yesterday's 6z op run, it's progressively good the further south you are, there is much less risk of any unsettled weather across the southern half of the uk with anticyclonic conditions dominant but further north, especially across scotland it looks a bit more variable with some unsettled and cooler weather at times but also a good deal of fine and pleasantly warm weather, but the southern half of england & wales looks like becoming generally settled from sunday onwards with plenty of sunshine and mostly light winds, daytime maxima into the low 20's celsius but closer to 25c at times for the south/se, one other important point, as the nights are now drawing in, the overnight periods under clear skies would become quite chilly with minimum temperatures into single digits celsius, especially in rural areas but no risk of any frosts.

Edited August 23, 2013 by Frosty039

[cobbett]

Myself and J10 both live in/near Swansea and I think we'd agree that pretty much all the current output agrees on a HP dominated outlook for next week into next weekend. The West looks Best for HP control as well.

Excellent - Cheers William

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean is superb, first we have a classic pincer movement as the two anticyclones join forces and this ensures a fine, sunny and warm bank holiday monday and then through next week the azores/atlantic anticyclone builds in across the uk with the fine and warm weather persisting until early september, only the far north of the BI would have a few brief more unsettled interruptions as fronts brush across but a lot of fine and warm weather too, but, the sunniest and warmest weather would be for the southern half of the uk where the high looks strongest, it really does appear to be a robust looking ridge and it's going to make the final week of the meteorological summer a memorable one, just like most of this summer has been.

 

So in summary, tonight and tomorrow brings a mass of heavy rain with embedded storms spreading from west to east, tomorrow afternoon looks very stormy across the eastern half of england with some big storms breaking out which will only slowly decay tomorrow evening and overnight as the explosive energy is sucked out of the atmosphere, by sunday it looks much nicer with sunny spells and only a few showers dotted around and feeling fresher but pleasantly warm in the low 20's celsius, then dry, warm and sunny next week with light winds and temps into the low to mid 20's celsius, in my book, that would be perfection.

[shedhead]

Wise words, otherwise you could end up thinking we are in the middle of a heatwave, when the reality is temps around 22c, cloudy with rain at times. Even this 'one day wonder' isn't delivering much of note. The models make fools out of no-one, that is left to ourselves...

We got to 25.5c here yesterday and it was 24c+ for 5hrs....scorchio   That said the unsettled weather looks set to last about as long as the heatwave that never was, with all indication that things will settle down quite nicely next week under a building AZ ridge, especially across England and Wales. Scotland and N Ireland look rather more prone to weak frontal troughs running around the perifery, but even here I'm sure most would take what appears to be on offer to close out Summer 2013. 

Edited August 23, 2013 by shedhead

[Summer Sun]

Once again we have another high pressure run from UKMO

 

 

GFS is high pressure dominated for the forseeable future this evening

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[draztik]

I think we best deal with the nearer term which can be plotted with greater reliability rather than the randomness of well beyond 10 days. On that basis illustrating a chart well within this period is a wise decision i would suggest.

im not disagreeing with any of that, but if my post had been read properly, you'd have noticed i said the models suggested a settled spell, so highlighting a chart at t144 showing HP was redundant, as the point for a settled pattern had already been made. As for the ec32, the model shows what the model shows - which is an unsettled end to its run. If i had said it was showing HP throughout its run, i can assure you id have a lot more likes and folk banging their drums.as for the recent output, all looks good for a settled period, be it a short spell or an extended period of warmth and sunshine. Edited August 23, 2013 by draztik

[Captain Shortwave]

^ the charts i posted earlier were actually not related to your post. i did try to separate the two. maybe i wasn't clear enough . The point i was making is the EC32 dayer hasnt exactly flipped if the week 1 and 2 synoptics are similar to the week 3/4 synoptics from the previous run(s). many mid range models are suggesting a more mobile pattern beyond the 7th september including the cfs and the japanese/korean mid rangers so there is good support for this. not that im overly worried. autumn has to arrive someday

Edited August 23, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Tamara]

im not disagreeing with any of that, but if my post had been read properly, you'd have noticed i said the models suggested a settled spell, so highlighting a chart at t144 showing HP was redundant, as the point for a settled pattern had already been made. As for the ec32, the model shows what the model shows - which is an unsettled end to its run. If i had said it was showing HP throughout its run, i can assure you id have a lot more likes and folk banging their drums.

as for the recent output, all looks good for a settled period, be it a short spell or an extended period of warmth and sunshine.

I think that balanced, unbiased and referenced posts, without prior agenda, are always very welcomed by most if they are a realistic account of the way the outlook proceeds  This evening so far seems to be further endorsing a return to Azores ridging next week, following the recovery which begins after the distinctly unpalatable weather on offer tomorrow for many places

Edited August 23, 2013 by Tamara Road

[J10]

All looks good then for next week but I have one concern in that I'm off to Swansea for a long golf weekend from Fri 30th and without fail we have always had rain/gales for at least part of this weekend.

I've now told the party that this year will be different as all the models and anomaly charts are all as one for a high pressure dominated week to come so take the shorts and suncream !

I'm hoping to not have an epic fail on this so is there one model which is showing some unsettled conditions for next weekend so at least I can add a caveat of sorts just in case ! It all seems just too good to be true at the moment

So far this summer, we have had the best of the sunshine, although areas further east have had the best of the temps.

 

Looking mostly settled for the period from the 30th. But things can change, although gales do seem very unlikely at this juncture.

Edited August 23, 2013 by J10

[Summer Sun]

No surpirsies from ECM so far following GFS and UKMO by rising pressure next week