Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Tamara]

Absolutely right, had the models verified as shown at times a week of so ago we'd be in the middle of a protrated hot spell now, but not all of us bought into it of course. Summer 2013 has been considerably better than many recent ones, but only memorable for what I'd describe as the number of 'usable days' i.e those that have not been overly cool, overly wet or overly hot.  Looking forward, the model suite suggests the final week of the summer offers more of the same, with a good deal of usable weather for most, but still no sign whatsoever of the much vaunted hot spell/heatwave..call it what you will.

I'm surprised you are still persisting with discussing history and what has always been a myth , but for what reason only you will know  The essence of the pattern which has been re-cycling is as has been described many times before. Spells of relatively fine and warm to very warm weather (but no heatwaves anywhere) especially in southern uk, rather more changeable at times further north, and punctuated by very shortlived but more generally unsettled weather.

 

The models have indeed previously shown more promise than this, and it has, rightly been commented on in observation as to potentially hotter and longer lasting conditions. But I think as been suggested to you on various occasions, there is a difference between what a model shows and what is likely to verfiy - and so continuing to confuse one with the other, or mistaking observations for predictions by members, is not helpful in the discussion, especially when it is practiced in a revisionist manner. Thus your latest post appears to me to be redundant in its purpose

 

I think the comments by snowking and bluearmy sum up the way ahead very well this morning with little else to add.  It will be interesting to see how the more amplified pattern suggested in some of the modelling is treated over the next day or two.  There is at least a little momentum gathering to suggest that this time round we may see something more of a polar maritime airflow dig further south, at least temporarily, but that comes after some fine and pleasant weather for quite a few this coming week. 

 

The EPS members do show that the operational might be one of the more definitively amplified solutions for next weekend, but there is a fair degree of support for this type of evolution. We have seen this type of greater consensus in a whole single suite before and it has not been sustained in future output. A week away of course, then much is always open to change and a signal whilst being a correct one, can often also be either exaggerated or be an overly progressive one

 

On a final note, I can't see how any cold weather bias can have any relevance at all in the last week of August (official summer) - while many families/people in general are still on their summer holiday.. and as off-topic as it is anyway

Edited August 25, 2013 by Tamara Road

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Why would anyone get excited about that at this time of year, it would only bring temperatures in the mid teens. And people say Matt Hugo doesn't have a cold bias! I see the thread is coldie-dominated this morning for the most part- surprised really as it looks dry and warm for most over the next few days. Don't be misled and enjoy the warm weather that's coming is what I say.

I read his tweets this morning no hint of excitement just saying like some others on here that the Ecm is showing cooler Northwesterleys next weekend. Which is erm true.

[bluearmy]

whilst not mentioning all the overwhelming support for a warm settled outlook.

 

karl - i resisted the temptation this morning to make an 'i toid you so' post but you pushed me into it.

 

told you !!!

 

all i was doing was highlighting the fact that a nw incusrion of the type shown by ecm next weekend was not an outlier.  at no point did i dismiss the upcoming generally fine week, nor say anything about what will follow this possible cooler norwester which currently seems to be another ridge from the west.  i am dumbfounded why discussing the models seems to label you a coldie/warmy ?  its just the machinations of a super computer after all.

 

EDIT: just to add that at the moment, we are just seeing the models reacting to a change in the data and there is as much chance that the norwester could correct further ne as come further sw. 

Edited August 25, 2013 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

with all the doom and gloom comments about the possibly unsettled blip next weekend, the fine and warm week ahead seems to have been overlooked.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

with all the doom and gloom comments about the possibly unsettled blip next weekend, the fine and warm week ahead seems to have been overlooked.

Its just model discussion. Not doom and gloom. Yes fine week coming up with at least a 50/50 chance of cooler and unsettled weather by next weekend. Edited August 25, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[MR EXTREMES]

with all the doom and gloom comments about the possibly unsettled blip next weekend, the fine and warm week ahead seems to have been overlooked.

indeed frosty in all honesty nothing remotely like autumn on the charts for some time with weak fronts hear and there were looking at some very nice weather warm to, but im absolutely astonished how very very quiet summer in the alantic has been I suspect a upturn end of September possibly stormy mid autumn into first part of winter.

 

but who knows for certain but right now the charts are keeping us nice warm and dry.

[Jezzer]

This from the Telegraph, echoes some of the thoughts for the next week or so posted in here.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10264990/Enjoy-the-last-of-the-summer-weather-on-Bank-Holiday-Monday.html

 

 

also interested to read this:

"Met Office figures show the UK average temperature for June, July and August so far is 15.1C (59.2F). This would make it one of the 10th hottest summers on record.

Even if summer’s average temperature unexpectedly eases to 14.8C (58.6F), it would still be the 14th hottest on record, and the hottest since the 15.6C (60.1F) in 2006 – the hottest summer ever."

Edited August 25, 2013 by Jezzer

[draztik]

Here are the GFS Ensembles for 4 locations (GFS 0z used), from North/NW to South/SW. Pressure & Rainfall amounts used for values

 

Inverness

 

 

Belfast

 

London

 

Plymouth

 

 

A clear indication that the more South and SW you are, pressure will be higher, and rainfall amounts lesser compared to our Northern & NW friends.

Edited August 25, 2013 by draztik

[Milhouse]

The GFS 6z has the cooler northwesterly for next weekend bypassing the UK with warmer air remaining over us as high pressure topples in off the Atlantic. Temperatures do fall back to average values but soon rise again as a southerly develops.

 

 

This is the GEFS mean take on things on Sunday which is the day when cooler air makes its way furthest south before it warms up. Upper temperatures at their coolest are still average for this time of year.

 

 

The ECM mean has a much more pronounced northwesterly though so it will be interesting to see which one ends up being right.

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z is another high pressure dominated run, the 6z only partially breaks the fine and warm spell next weekend across the north but it's a glancing blow with the pesky spoiler low further to the north, high pressure then picks up where it left off and the warmth and sunshine spreads back across the uk, it's a prolonged fine and warm outlook, the atlantic systems huff and they puff but they just can't blow the warm & settled spell down until literally T+372 hours, the depths of lala land, north atlantic depressions do put considerable pressure on the azores ridge but it keeps bouncing back with any unsettled weather unable to penetrate the southeast of the uk until the end of the run, it's another very good run for sun seekers overall with summery weather and in places, very warm weather holding it's ground across most of the uk despite everything the atlantic can throw at it, and keeps autumnal weather at bay.

Edited August 25, 2013 by Frosty039

[Bristawl Si]

Its just model discussion. Not doom and gloom. Yes fine week coming up with at least a 50/50 chance of cooler and unsettled weather by next weekend.

Excellent news.A 50/50 chance of warm and settled then.

[Frosty.]

Excellent news.A 50/50 chance of warm and settled then.

I think the odds are more like 75/25 in favour of fine and warm weather not being interrupted across the southern half of the uk, closer to 50/50 for n.ireland & scotland.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z  mean looks even more settled than the 6z op run and that was a largely settled run, the mean keeps the spoiler trough even further north at the end of the week so it has very little impact on the uk with just the far north experiencing a less settled blip, for most of the uk it remains fine, dry and warm with very benign conditions, then the azores ridge builds in and strengthens even more through FI and the fine and warm spell goes on and on, only the northern half of scotland is a little less settled than further south at times. A nice fine and warm week ahead and more of the same beyond.

[Captain Shortwave]

 

Going to be honest, I'm not liking where this is heading, very much in line with the Euro models. At least the coming week looks good,but growing support for autumn to arrive with a real flourish come the 1st of September.

[ANYWEATHER]

Yes ,looks like the gfs  is kicking and screaming towards the ecms output at the end of this week...  

[Polar Maritime]

 

Going to be honest, I'm not liking where this is heading, very much in line with the Euro models. At least the coming week looks good,but growing support for autumn to arrive with a real flourish come the 1st of September.

 

Yes Captain, it's slowly catching up with this mornings ECMWF run which has been showing this trend for a few days now. This evening's run will be interesting..

 

 

I wouldn't say kicking and screaming just yet ANYWEATHER..  

Edited August 25, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[draztik]

A big transformation in the gfs this evening, in line with the ecm..

odds now very in favour of a cooler, more unsettled theme into the coming weekend. The ensembles and ecm will be very interesting to see now!

Edited August 25, 2013 by draztik

[Summer Sun]

UKMO continues to keep the worst of the deep low north of the UK Scotland looks to be the place which gets the tail edge of it

 

 

Pressure builds in once more

 

 

Edited August 25, 2013 by Summer Sun

[summer blizzard]

Being fair to the GFS it picked up on this solution days ago but dropped it, since there's a large heat lover element currently in the model thread they just ignored it.

[Tamara]

UKMO continues to keep the worst of the deep low north of the UK Scotland looks to be the place which gets the tail edge of it

 

 

Pressure builds in once more

 

 

Yes, I think tbh it is completely academic looking at individual operational outputs and making declarations about them a week ahead, but what we have so far this afternoon/evening is completely in line with what we might expect, that is, taking into account the uncertainties that are presented when the focus in this thread always seems to 6 or 7 days away

 

Just to take the GFS at face value to start with, it doesn't actually amplify the pattern like the ECM this morning anyway - but as I said just now, it is pointless analysing operational output too much at face value anyway - especially at this distance. The UKMO. fwiw, shows a better still scenario from a fine weather pov (for most) but equally this comes with the same face value caveat.

 

Meanwhile the remainder of the B/H looks beautiful and there is plenty of fine late summer weather to enjoy for about the next 5 days at least anyway

Edited August 25, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Frosty.]

UKMO continues to keep the worst of the deep low north of the UK Scotland looks to be the place which gets the tail edge of it

 

 

Pressure builds in once more

 

 

Yes I still think it will only be a glancing blow across the far northeast of the uk with high pressure soon rebuilding, or it could be even better with the trough gradually shunted even further northeast as time goes on.

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes, I think tbh it is completely academic looking at individual operational outputs and making declarations about them a week ahead, but what we have so far this afternoon/evening is completely in line with what we might expect, that is, taking into account the uncertainties that are presented when the focus in this thread always seems to 6 or 7 days away

 

Just to take the GFS at face value to start with, it doesn't actually amplify the pattern like the ECM this morning anyway - but as I said just now, it is pointless analysing operational output too much at face value anyway - especially at this distance. The UKMO. fwiw, shows a better still scenario from a fine weather pov (for most) but equally this comes with the same face value caveat.

 

Meanwhile the remainder of the B/H looks beautiful and there is plenty of fine late summer weather to enjoy for about the next 5 days at least anyway

True, I would think the likelihood of the ECM op verifying is pretty slim, toppler set ups have a habit of being watered down in potency when verification approaches. 

UKMO doesn't look too bad, the worst of the weather looks to be kept north of the UK. But as you say each run is different.

[Tamara]

 

I wouldn't say kicking and screaming just yet ANYWEATHER..  

 A little whimper maybe...

[draztik]

Important that we counter what the MetO at 144 tonight,

heres is the updated GEM output at the exact same time period

thereafter there is no rebuild of the high, with the east of the uk particularly looking cool and unsettled

Edited August 25, 2013 by draztik

[Frosty.]

 A little whimper maybe...

I agree, and the gefs mean is still looking warm and settled, there are still lots of positives, and of course, we have a lovely last week of the meteorological summer to enjoy, what a bonus!