Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Methuselah]

lol Frosty...if you 'bank' too many, you'll need a new safe deposit box?

[bluearmy]

just thought i'd bump this up for 'the captain'. although changeable might be a better word, it shows how far the models can come within a couple of days.

 

18 August 2013 - 09:27

Captain shortwave, on 18 Aug 2013 - 10:21, said:

 

^ECM mean still has the jet north of the UK by day 10 so I am struggling to understand how one can conclude that the weather will be cool and unsettled after the coming week

 

agreed although as we saw in frrst week aug, a projected plume of +15c uppers at D8 became a reality of fresher air @ +5c as the trough dug well into france.

 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Wowzies December is gonna be well below average hehe.

 

 

 

 

Another December 2010 perhaps!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tamara]

Looks like a pleasant most of rest of the week to come away from the annoying influence of the mid week shortwave in north western parts, then rather changeable for a few days, and then settling down again, at least further south, with renewed High pressure extending from the Azores.

 

The FI suggestions on the ECM for extension of the trough digging as far south as suggested are quite probably overdone as such over amplified jet stream suggestions often are on the model.

 

So not a heatwave to come, not that one was expected anyway, and for sure perhaps the fine very warm spell (as credibly anticipated) has been rather unexpectedly truncated too, but all that said essentially the same sequence of ideas persists as before with perhaps just a larger and longer punctuation mark attached to it in the middle.

 

Simple innit!

Edited August 20, 2013 by Tamara Road

[mushymanrob]

Fear not Shed, the trusted gfs in fi takes us into an Indian summer...

lol

 

thats not an indian summer... i believe the definition is for a (reletively) warm spell that follows the first frost/s.

 

frosty.... ignore the gfs fi... it really is a waste of time going to all that trouble to post those charts up.

 

lesson learned, without anomaly chart support anything shown in the ops , its unlikely to happen.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Wowzies December is gonna be well below average hehe.

 

cfs-3-12-2013.png

 

cfs-7-12-2013.png

 

cfs-8-12-2013.png

 

Another December 2010 perhaps!!!!!!!!!

Mods please move this post and 'bank' it safely in the new snow and ice thread thanks! ....only joking.

[Frosty.]

Mods please move this post and 'bank' it safely in the new snow and ice thread thanks! ....only joking.

i'm taking those charts with a large lorry load of rock salt, the model's can't even nail T+96 let alone T+ 2800 HOURS

Edited August 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[bradymk]

One thing that is noticeable from recent runs is the shift northward of the LP. Its not going to be a hot weekend but it is not going to be a washout either. GFS and UKMO 12z rolling out now, both show a movement north of the LP in early stages.

[Buzzit]

That crazy man in the GFS is back - look at those eyeball lows and the big mouth full of hot air

 

Edited August 20, 2013 by Buzzit

[Alexis]

"thats not an indian summer... i believe the definition is for a (reletively) warm spell that follows the first frost/s."

 

Seems a bit of a daft definition really. It's pretty unusual to get a period of warmth and sun after the first frost, which can be early November in some years. Most warm October spells wouldn't be classed as an Indian Summer if it was all based on the first frost. I think we're stuck with the colloquial definition of bog standard October warmth.

[Methuselah]

"thats not an indian summer... i believe the definition is for a (reletively) warm spell that follows the first frost/s."

 

Seems a bit of a daft definition really. It's pretty unusual to get a period of warmth and sun after the first frost, which can be early November in some years. Most warm October spells wouldn't be classed as an Indian Summer if it was all based on the first frost. I think we're stuck with the colloquial definition of bog standard October warmth.

Well it may seem 'daft', but that's what an Indian Summer is - the expression coming, as it does, from North America.

[conor123]

Both the GFS and especially UKMO have now moved Friday's low a good amount further west at the price of downgrading Thursday's temperatures by a good 4 or 5 degrees from this mornings run's due to low cloud, Scandi Block also ever so slightly west of this mornings runs.

 

In fact the UKMO takes the low up over Iceland with the Scandi high ridging with the Azores high for Saturday.

Edited August 20, 2013 by conor123

[bradymk]

Another set of runs, another change, GFS looks pretty decent and UKMO even better, its not the heatwave that was once possible, but its looking better than earlier runs.

[Frosty.]

Well it may seem 'daft', but that's what an Indian Summer is - the expression coming, as it does, from North America.

I'm daft cos I thought it came from the other india

Edited August 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[Man With Beard]

Well I don't many of us expected such a turnaround tonight. UKMO and GFS both build HP over the top of what becomes a cut-off low by Sunday (I think I saw this modelled a few days ago but subsequently got dropped). UKMO in particular could be quite nice for Sunday/Monday. Encouraging that both models go a similar way, still, going to need a couple more runs before confidence can build.

 

[Summer Sun]

Encouraging signs in the shorter term from UKMO and GFS this afternoon

 

Edited August 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

I'm daft cos I thought it came from the other india

 

me too...

"thats not an indian summer... i believe the definition is for a (reletively) warm spell that follows the first frost/s."

 

Seems a bit of a daft definition really. It's pretty unusual to get a period of warmth and sun after the first frost, which can be early November in some years. Most warm October spells wouldn't be classed as an Indian Summer if it was all based on the first frost. I think we're stuck with the colloquial definition of bog standard October warmth.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_summer

[bluearmy]

The see sawing from 0z to 12z continues apace from ukmo whilst gfs continues to make a lot of the w/end precip. GEM out soon. the difference between last nights T120 and tonights T96 FAXES will be astonishing.

[snowking]

Yep as has already been commented upon, big steps towards this mornings ECMWF solution from the runs tonight.

 

The GFS not quite there yet, with enough energy spilling south to develop a secondary low to the South of the UK:

 

 

But compared to its 0z alternative:

 

 

Its heading in the right direction.

 

Meanwhile, the UKMO:

 

 

Holding the energy up to the North-West of the UK, once again promising a drier weekend at least for Southern and Eastern parts.

 

Also for information, I counted 33 of the 51 ECM EPS members this morning, crucially including virtually identical Deterministic and Control runs, backed such a solution. We of course await the ECMWF, but big steps in the right direction for something slightly more settled this evening.

 

SK

[The PIT]

Ahh thats looks better. Lost the horrid heat and got temps perfectly in the low 20's. Just need to lose the rain now and the perfect bank holiday. Almost a perfect run Azores high builds back in in FI land. I still think we will need to wait until Thursday until the details really firm up.

[bradymk]

The see sawing from 0z to 12z continues apace from ukmo whilst gfs continues to make a lot of the w/end precip. GEM out soon. the difference between last nights T120 and tonights T96 FAXES will be astonishing.

Yes UKMO +96 much different to yesterdays +120, definately shows the uncertainty with this weekend.

[draztik]

The changes in the models from one run to the other almost makes it impossible for us to even comment on them.. I suppose the anomaly charts are our only way of trying to work things out atm.

[johnholmes]

I'm daft cos I thought it came from the other india

The UK Met O definition makes no mention of it having to follow a frost, that is the USA version. Uk also says a spell of warm calm weather  occurring in autumn and goes on to say, especially in October and November. Taken from their weather glossary definitions.

[The PIT]

The UK Met O definition makes no mention of it having to follow a frost, that is the USA version. Uk also says a spell of warm calm weather  occurring in autumn and goes on to say, especially in October and November. Taken from their weather glossary definitions.

I always think of Indian Summers October and November. Some years though since we've been sitting outside in T shirts at 10:30 in the evening at the end of November.

[Tamara]

I'm certainly no prophet and not clever at all but the output so far this afternoon/evening is not surprising - this type of synoptic pattern has been seen so many more times before and always is very badly handled by the models.  Briefly changeable still the likely way ahead and then the potential for something better once again, more especially in the south