Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[johnholmes]

take a careful look at the 3 anomaly charts as to the general upper air pattern, not total agreement but a trough in charge and 'possibly' the flow from north of west?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

take a careful look at the 3 anomaly charts as to the general upper air pattern, not total agreement but a trough in charge and 'possibly' the flow from north of west?

Is that post in reply to mine John?

If so,all i see when looking at ecm/ukmo/gfs is a 1025 mb high sat virtually over the UK?

[Summer Sun]

ECM has backed away from is cooler later later next week again this morning

 

t192 is about the coolest it turns

 

 

From t216 the warmth slowly rebuilds as does high pressure though for those in the south at t240 it would be wet at times until the low clears away

 

Edited August 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[DTHFCJ]

Is that post in reply to mine John?

If so,all i see when looking at ecm/ukmo/gfs is a 1025 mb high sat virtually over the UK?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

 

 feel free to call me a nosey bugger but im sure John H is referring to these

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Warm and sunny until midweek. But then there is no hiding from the fact that it is going to turn unsettled there after. How long it will last for is anyone's guess though.

[Summer Sun]

Here is the latest summary on the models from Gibby

 

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday August 30th 2013.

 

All models show a series of weak fronts crossing SE over the UK today and tonight, the last of which brings clearer, cooler and fresher weather to all areas before tomorrow morning. The weekend will then see pressure rising again with the cool NW flow for both Saturday and Sunday being snuffed out by Monday. bright and sunny if cooler conditions will affect all for the weekend with cool and dewy night's Monday and Tuesday are both shown to be bright and dry and altogether warmer again in the South while the North clouds over with time with an increase of SW wind and a little rain late Tuesday.

 

The Fax Charts appear to be having none of the breakdown anytime soon next week as the High building over the South at the weekend and start to next week looks very reluctant to leave the South on the 120hr chart released last night with no more than a glancing blow from troughs over the north by midweek.

 

GFS then shows more unsettled conditions spreading East across the UK later next week with some rain at times for all in average temperatures. Fronts then continue to affect the UK at times until the start of the second week and rather longer in the North before High pressure builds over the UK from the South and West with fine and dry weather dominant with mist and fog at night at the end of the run.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue the theme as before with a cool weekend and then a warmer couple of days before a period of average uppers or thereabouts are accompanied by occasional rainfall even in the South. The operational was a warm outlier at the end of the run but with plenty of spread I wouldn't discount it.

 

The Jet Stream prediction is based on the GFS output and with High pressure based over the UK in the latter part of the run the flow remains located North of the UK for much of next week. However, the general consensus from other output is to bring it somewhat further South though not alarmingly so with the main thrust of it crossing near the North of the UK next week.

 

UKMO today shows a trough of low pressure crossing East over the UK next Thursday with some showery rain for all for a time, heaviest in the North. I would suggest a ridge of High pressure would possibly follow at the end of the week with things drying out again.

 

GEM shows a similar trough crossing East after midweek with High pressure building back over the North from the Atlantic by the weekend while low pressure develops near the SE with a cool North then NE flow bringing some rain or showers for these areas in cool weather while for a change the North and West see the driest and brightest conditions though none too warm.

 

NAVGEM today shows a weakening trough cross east too midweek before pressure begins building again from the SW towards the end of the run with the rain petering out in the East as dry weather spreads back in by the weekend from the South and West.

 

ECM is this morning somewhat similar to GEM bringing a trough across midweek which is followed by a cut off depression which locates near SW Britain at the end of the run with rain or showers likely in the South from midweek. The North too would see rain at times before High pressure ridges across from the Atlantic here drying things up and allowing some sunny spells.

 

In Summary there is a lot of disagreement on the events of weather beyond the still broadly agreed pattern of a trough of Low pressure bringing some rain across the UK from the West around midweek. Then things diverge between the models with no model showing a full blooded breakdown that was being indicated yesterday. Instead we have a cocktail of options which range from cut off lows to the South and further High pressure building from the SW yet again. So it looks like we will have to wait until nearer the events before a clear pattern is drawn but imo I wouldn't bet against High pressure to the SW continuing to show further dominance over the UK weather next week and beyond too, being that it has played such a major influence over the nation's weather this Summer.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Still looks like a front will move through the UK on Thursday night, that at least has support, how the trough and upper ridge to our East interact. I really wouldn't draw any definite conclusion from then onwards as the models are really not getting a good handle on the situation. Unsettled, probably, any description on the precise surface conditions is very unknown.

Either way, mid-high twenties looks likely on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Edited August 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

take a careful look at the 3 anomaly charts as to the general upper air pattern, not total agreement but a trough in charge and 'possibly' the flow from north of west?

 

indeed, but they start at 6-10 days ahead, next weeks mini warm spell seems to have evolved before this period starts, hence wasnt shown.. im sure that in 6 days time, by next thursday, we will have lost the anticyclone and will be under the influence of the trough shown on both the anoms and ops. 

 

(this is my guess, please feel free to correct this perception if its incorrect )

[mushymanrob]

Charts look great for sunday to wednesday but the bbc 5 dayer for manchster is awful.

what gives??

 

possibly they are expecting atlantic influence, therefore cloud, as the predicted high is centred to your southeast for most of the time concerned.

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm interesting run from the GFS, it stays warm and settled until next weekend.

 

 

[surfs up]

Latest run from the 06Z GFS shows the South of the UK hanging onto some decent weather into next weekend. Seems to be a continuing trend from the last set of runs from the GFS that has leaned away from bringing in autumn just yet.

[syed2878]

1 thing i found regarding this thread is that if any1 who doesn't bang on about an incoming heatwave r automaticly vilified and that's not right.

[Gaz1985]

 

GFS 6z showing the south and especially the south east hanging on to very warm air into next Friday, but the teens looking likely from about Manchester northwards, still things will change it is a week away.

Edited August 30, 2013 by Gaz1985

[StretfordEnd1996]

GFS 12z at 117 doesn't want to quickly bring in the unsettled weather, similar to the 6z. 

 

This is all turning out quite nicely for people wanting the heat to remain  

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows a settled warm start next week

 

 

By Wednesday the high is starting to break up but it should remain warm for many

 

 

Thursday sees a cooler flow starting to develop how long this lasts depends on where the high in the Atlantic goes if it pushes back in the cooler flow will be temporary

 

[J10]

and 'possibly' the flow from north of west?

 

Good news, but better locally than a flow south of West.

[Summer Sun]

ECM follows on from the other models by rising pressure early next week with it becoming warmer again

 

 

Will be interesting to see what happens now a scandi high is on offer

 

 

Edited August 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

The end of next week looks like a right mess, the ECM has pulled a full blown Scandi high out of the bag,

 

This run could get rather interesting

Cut-off low developing

Edited August 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Scandi high still there at t144 warm air remains over the SE Atlantic high also trying to move in

 

 

Warm air hangs on in the SE with low pressure over the UK

 

 

Warm air continues to hold on in parts of the East and SE whilst low pressure stays over the UK

 

 

By t216 the warm air transfers northwards as low pressure continues over the UK with it positioned over the SW

 

Edited August 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[draztik]

Trying to keep tabs with the models recently has been hard work. The ECM, sees us sandwiched between 2 highs, while temps around average, tho above in the east. But, like has been the case all week, the models will show something different tomorrow no doubt!

[Man With Beard]

A new possibility emerging in the last 48 hours for a battleground to develop over the UK at the end of next week, rather than low pressure taking over. Tonight's ECM is the latest "option" - warmth never leaves the east, would this become a thundery low?

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Great ECM there, temperatures would be above average throughout, warm/very warm in central/eastern areas for most of the run. The uppers do mix out later but still above the seasonal norm and with winds from the continent it would still be warm. Rainfall would have the potential to be thundery too, given most of the rainfall would be moving up from France.

Interestingly the GFS/GEM have toyed with this solution around 24/36 hours back for around the same date. But dropped it for a more westerly type pattern.

Wouldn't rule anything out for the end of next week to be honest.

Just a note - I know the GFS does not support this but fair warning, if the ECM solution is close to the correct answer, then the GFS will not pick it up as it has a habit of making a real hash of this type of set up.

Edited August 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[ANYWEATHER]

Great ECM there, temperatures would be above average throughout, warm/very warm in central/eastern areas for most of the run. The uppers do mix out later but still above the seasonal norm and with winds from the continent it would still be warm. Rainfall would have the potential to be thundery too, given most of the rainfall would be moving up from France.

Interestingly the GFS/GEM have toyed with this solution around 24/36 hours back for around the same date. But dropped it for a more westerly type pattern.

Wouldn't rule anything out for the end of next week to be honest.

Ecm would keep it warm and humid. but thundery downpours in its later output! I would say a pivitol point in model watching will be midweek as this seems to be where the gfs and ecm show a  change, but exactly to what detail is not possible.    

[Captain Shortwave]

Ecm would keep it warm and humid. but thundery downpours in its later output! I would say a pivitol point in model watching will be midweek as this seems to be where the gfs and ecm show a  change, but exactly to what detail is not possible.    

Anything allowing precipitation to come up from France with embedded warm uppers will always give the chance of thundery rain at this time of year. But given its output differs from other models we cannot give much confidence in this solution.

Edited August 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[shaky]

Another really brilliant and thundery ecm 12z tonight especially if you like hot and humid weather!!where are all the guys that said we gona see autumnal weather from the north west next week!!it looks like we are gona see a breakdown from the south instead and a thundery one at that!nothings for definate yet but some real positive news from the ecm 12z for heat lovers!!