Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[Captain Shortwave]

Where did I say that Tamara Road's views were biased, in fact I believe it was the opposite. 

 

 

 I can appreciate some might say they're only outlining what the models are currently showing but it's blatantly obvious their views are not unbiased unlike Tamara Road.

I think you made a rather unfortunate typo 

To address your point, whilst you might be sceptical about the output I will say there has been a definite shift in the output over the past 12/24 hours to a more settled output over the UK. The GFS and UKMO are showing signs of anticyclonic weather taking hold at the end of the week with the potential linking of the Azores and Russian anticyclones resulting in a large block to the east. The ECM is different but still suggests 4 consecutive dry and fine days for most of the UK. Bear in mind that only a day or so back there was strong evidence for an endless train of low pressure systems hitting the UK with no dry weather modelled whatsoever. Things have moved considerably over the last 48 hours. I think we haven't seen the last of it either. As I stated last night, I think the models gravely underestimated the impact of tropical storm Humberto and any increasing effects of this storm only result in one outcome which is what is currently developing in the model out.

Edited September 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Where did I say that Tamara Road's views were biased, in fact I believe it was the opposite. 

 

Its the bit I've highlighted in Red which makes it look that way

 

I can appreciate some might say they're only outlining what the models are currently showing but it's blatantly obvious their views are not unbiased unlike Tamara Road

 

That makes it sound like Tamara's views are biased It may be the way you've worded it

 

Maybe this would have helped it's blatantly obvious their views are biased unlike Tamara Road

 

If what I've put in blue is what you meant I offer my apologies to you. It looks like an unfortunate typo error by the looks of it

Edited September 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Awesome charts this morning for those of  us (the majority) who love warmth and high pressure, growing support now for a warm and sunny spell once the current muck has gone.

Edited September 15, 2013 by Frosty.

[johnholmes]

Its the bit I've highlighted in Red which makes it look that way

 

I can appreciate some might say they're only outlining what the models are currently showing but it's blatantly obvious their views are not unbiased unlike Tamara Road

 

That makes it sound like Tamara's views are biased It may be the way you've worded it

 

Maybe this would have helped it's blatantly obvious their views are biased unlike Tamara Road

 

If what I've put in blue is what you meant I offer my apologies to you. It looks like an unfortunate typo error by the looks of it

 

we can all look back at how we worded something SS but the fact that Tamara 'liked it' suggests that the wording was okay with her.

why not simply concentrate, and this applies to others at times as well, on putting your own view forward and stop having a dig at how someone else summarises the models?

[Scorcher]

Quiet in here so far today, seems some may have accepted that the coming ice age has been delayed until the colder part of the year!

[johnholmes]

Where did I say that Tamara Road's views were biased, in fact I believe it was the opposite. 

welcome to Net Wx, you have already discovered that some folk can be quite touchy. Best you try and follow my suggestion in my post about simply stating how you see the weather. I know at times that is not easy when you read some of the digs we get one here in spite of the admin and mods trying their best to keep this sort of thing off the forum. Just use the report button if you feel someone is having a go.

[Frosty.]

Quiet in here so far today, seems some may have accepted that the coming ice age has been delayed until the colder part of the year!

Indeed, it looks like BBQ weather is going to make a comeback, balmy warm continental breezes, who wants frigid nely winds and cold rain in september?

[Summer Sun]

GFS ens showing +10 uppers making a return later this week for a time

 

 

After this the uppers drop off but they never get below +5c for the bulk of England and Wales so in any sunshine it would continue to feel very pleasant maybe even warm at times in the south east

 

Edited September 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

I have to admit I'm finding the effects of a tropical storm on the output to be very fascinating. Many wise heads on here have suggested that the weather patterns can be greatly effected by systems like Humberto, we could be witnessing it over the coming week or so. If the ECM backs the GFS/UKMO output this evening it would cap off a rather astonishing turnaround from full scale cool and unsettled weather to a dry and warm outlook for many.

[Summer Sun]

Looking quite encouraging for at least one more spurt of warmth then - will we see a 24 or even 25C? Before Autumn proper takes control.

Pretty wretched out today, must admit to have put my Autumn hat on now and waved adios to Summer 2013! Forward not back

 

I certainly wouldn't rule out those temps given the right conditions they can still be hit easily in the south for another 3 weeks or so yet

[William of Walworth]

My moods can be dangerously dependent on the model output at times like this, but my current mood has cautiously taken a turn for the better.

 

Chances of a washout/mudbath mini festival for my friends and I in rural Lincolnshire, next extended weekend (noon Thurs to Mon morning) now seem significantly diminished, yay!. May even be able to sit outside the beer tent judging by some of the charts posted yesterday and today ...

 

But of course I'll have to continue to monitor between now and Weds, being a tad addicted like that. Please don't reverse yourselves, models!

Edited September 15, 2013 by William of Walworth

[Tamara]

That is not fair one bit Tamara Road's views are not biased

Thanks for your comment, but the way he phrased it was indeed intended the other way round (as I read it anyway)  

 

Newberryone is right in terms of the overall suggested outlook being very similar to the one starting to come into focus yesterday and there is now good agreement for southern uk at least to see an improvement for a time at least by next weekend. The ECM ensemble members show good agreement for this and reflect the other models position as well

 

It underpins the role that Humberto is playing in this way by supplying some downstream ridging ahead of it and reverting the jet stream alignment in such a way that pressure can rise somewhat from the south west. The other striking factor continues to be the presence of the heights to the NE and the developing presence of a cold pool over Siberia..just what many of us would like to see sustained and become a feedback loop for much longer term prospects. The ECM 0z advertises and depicts the developing early cold pool here in the Siberian side of the arctic. Its not exactly spectacular so early on , but the general spread is where many will want it to stay, grow and encourage snow cover.

 

Also clearly this on its own means little for the months ahead if it is simply a short term feature, but we saw last winter how important its presence was in the outcome to how patterns unfolded with time

 

 

 

 

In the present term, these height anomalies to the NE continue to suggest that once Humberto's presence disappears, then the jet stream is likely to re-align itself back again for further polar maritime influences, and in any case, it will limit advancement of any especially high upper air temperatures from the south.

 

Should this overall pattern sustain deeper into the autumn then I suspect an increasingly cyclonic aspect to the UK weather may ensue, with the Azores high displaced further west into the atlantic and an increasing temperature gradient being set up as the polar cell gains ascendency. With lows tracking and disrupting in a style we have become familiar with, even over much of the latter summer period, this presents some possible interesting weather to come further down the line

Edited September 15, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Frosty.]

If you love high pressure and warm sunshine, you will really love what the Gfs 06z operational run shows today, if not, pass this run and wait for the 12z, there is huge support now for a strong build of the azores high into the uk with warmer and warmer air, potentially very warm air for a few days before this run eventually shows a shallow trough drifting into the uk in lala land, another late burst of summery autumn weather is heading our way by the end of the week ahead if the ens mean and op runs are anything to go by.

[Tamara]

If you love high pressure and warm sunshine, you will really love what the Gfs 06z operational run shows today, if not, pass this run and wait for the 12z, there is huge support now for a strong build of the azores high into the uk with warmer and warmer air, potentially very warm air for a few days before this run eventually shows a shallow trough drifting into the uk in lala land, another late burst of summery autumn weather is heading our way by the end of the week ahead if the ens mean and op runs are anything to go by.

I think that quite a few , including myself, will wholly welcome some pleasant quiet and warm weather before the days draw right out Its more a case of trying to realistically assess the extent and longevity of any fine spell more than anything. Its interesting that the GFS wants to develop a large and very extensive mid latitude ridge, but this looks, atm, like an exaggerated suggestion based on over gilding the strength and durability of ridging occuring in tandem with Humberto more than anything, at least at this time.

 

Much depends, as suggested just now, on how the current pressure profile sustains itself, if it does so, but at least at this moment in time the foresseable outlook suggests that mostly Southern UK will benefit from any more settled interludes of weather

 

Its not just Humberto, but also any future ex-tropical developments that can, and might interrupt the weather patterns. As JH has said in as many words fairly recently, these cannot always be foreseen, but can be enough to change underlying patterns and trends for a time at least.

Edited September 15, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Frosty.]

weatherman said it will be T-shirt weather after the week ahead, warming up in the south by friday, close to 70F...then becoming even warmer, this is what the models are showing so it must be true.

[AWD]

If I may add my two-pennies worth, moving away from NWP Operational output a little and looking at other available data to us.

I think the future (ie the 6 - 15 day timescale) may be of a rather benign nature with no extremes in either camp. Firstly a look at the NAEFS for London;

Showing a return to around average pressure values, although do note a large spread developing from next weekend onwards. For Scotland;

Note a much larger deviation here, highlighting the increasing uncertainty of how far north any high pressure ridge will get next weekend onwards. Perhaps a ridge across just the southern half of the UK, a la the latest Met Office update?

Anything else to help us see? Well, the MJO looks like becoming quiet again so no help really there;

Lets compare this mornings operational output at T144 then;

All of them, to a varying degree, suggest a ridge primarily across the south of the UK next weekend, brinig some drier and warmer weather here, less so the further north one goes. Will it last though? Lets move on to T192 hours then;

Well, the GFS saying yes, the EC and GEM not so. A look at them in comparison on a meteogram scale;

Suggests the GFS Op was lagging behind a little and that something a little cooler and less settled is a more probable outcome as we go into week 2. Still nothing deeply unsettled but equally nothing as "summery" as what the GFS Op and control show. One could perhaps call it a compromise?

This small decline also shown clearly in the Reading ens suite;

Whilst pressure and temperature don't fall away to any alarming values, there is a slow decline after this weekends possible brief warm blip. Again, something that suggest average, benign weather for late September?

Finally, a look at the NAEFS at T240 sees positive anomalies to our NE and negative anomalies to our north west with the UK in "no mans land". Something else supporting a benign long range outlook.

Therefore, something similiar to the recent Met Office update is my favoured route forward this morning in the 6/15 day timeframe. A ridge of pressure looks like bringing a brief window of warmer than average conditions into Southern Britian this weekend, less so the further north one goes though. Into week 2 and a benign pattern looks like setting up with trough activity to our north west and heights somewhere to our east/north east. This could introduce something of a north west/south east split with cooler, unsettled conditions more prominent in the north west and quieter, more pleasent conditions dominant in the south east. Nothing extreme, be it hot or cold is shown with any degree of confidence really.

A quick ponder to on the state of the Pole, there seems quite a lot of positive pressure anomalies around on whatever data you look at;

Could this be some very early signs of a Vortex struggling to develop? I'll leave that to the more knowledgable winter members to answer?

Edited September 15, 2013 by SeasonalWeatherWatcher

[Tamara]

Excellent summary SWW My own post up the page tenuously alluded to implications for future PV activity in terms of the current suggested height anomalies and potential longer term feedbacks if they are sustained, but left it at that for the correct related thread

[Captain Shortwave]

Very interesting bbc forecast, perhaps we will see the ECM shift this evening.

By the way about the GEM output, not sure about that, but if it did verify northern Ireland and Western Scotland would be in big trouble

 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean continues the warmer anticyclonic trend from friday onwards with temps rising well into the 70's F by the start of the following week, the high then holding across the south with the north of the uk eventually trending more towards atlantic weather but looking further ahead, the pressure pattern looks very slack with high pressure to the southeast and a very sluggish atlantic with the PFJ well away to the northwest.

Edited September 15, 2013 by Frosty.

[Mr Frost]

Quiet in here so far today, seems some may have accepted that the coming ice age has been delayed until the colder part of the year!

Is it not always quiet on here between April and September? Edited September 15, 2013 by Mr Frost

[Frosty.]

Is it not always quiet on here between April and September?

no it's been busier this year, some of us like the weather all year round.

[summer blizzard]

A look at the ECWMF shows nothing substantial. Below average until Thursday, 2 above average days then variable average to below average. South east looks best.

[Summer Sun]

The met office must have some confidence in it turning warmer next week other they wouldn't let Chris say Don't throw your t-shirts away yet there are signs it could turn warmer next week

 

By Friday it will be warmer for all with 20c in the London area

 

So a week of 2 half's windy and wet till Tuesday steady improvements from Wednesday once the wind falls light

Edited September 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Cloud 10]

Very interesting bbc forecast, perhaps we will see the ECM shift this evening.

By the way about the GEM output, not sure about that, but if it did verify northern Ireland and Western Scotland would be in big trouble

 

 

Thankfully that's at +186 hrs although it does highlight the uncertainty that Humberto

is causing in the model output.

[Frosty.]

A look at the ECWMF shows nothing substantial. Below average until Thursday, 2 above average days then variable average to below average. South east looks best.

The overall model consensus is pointing to a very decent spell of warm settled weather by next weekend, indeed, by friday, the azores high will have built north through the uk and most areas look dry and sunnier with temps close to 21c in the south, then warming up even more through next weekend into the first half of the following week with temps well into the 70's F, superb for late september and untold riches after those dismal and wrong ecm op runs recently showing 10 consecutive days of very cool unsettled weather with persistent NEly winds. So it could become very warm for the time of year with winds sourced from southern europe and temps into the mid 20's celsius.

Edited September 15, 2013 by Frosty.