Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The GFS 06z temp ensembles are not really that much better than the ECM. Still don't really show that much warmth.

 

Either the ECM and GFS ensembles are well under cooking temps or humans are seeing HP and over estimating heat lol.

 

Edited September 16, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GFS 06z temp ensembles are not really that much better than the ECM. Still don't really show that much warmth.

 

Either the ECM and GFS ensembles are well under cooking temps or humans are seeing HP and over estimating heat lol.

 

graphe_ens4.gif

 

Yeah, at the minute I think there's more hopecasting than negativity going on. High 20s based on current output? Nope. Low 20's....quite possibly in the best of the sunny spells.

[itsnowjoke]

Not sure what your issue is Dave, have we said something to upset you? All people have highlighted is the chance for mist and patchy fog if the high settles over the UK. Any sort of flow from the S would make such a suggestion irrelevant anyway. If a high was to stagnate over the UK then mist and fog would start to increase in probability. It's something the Metoffice have already alluded to in one of their long rangers last week. I also said yesterday evening that it would be pleasantly warm in the sunshine during the day, so maybe you're just reading some posts with a negative slant? You'll not reach 29C with that 168 hrs chart. 22-24C most likely- still above average. I think late Sept 2011 has skewed peoples' sense of reality. worth a shot. P.s Captain, where can I find the temp projections and what were the actual projected temps?

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z control run almost mirrors the 6z operational run for a while with the increasingly fine and warm, locally very warm spell with high pressure taking control for a while, but then, unlike the op run, the control run takes us into a full blown cool and unsettled further outlook with a scandi trough being taken over by vigorous depressions tracking northeast and hitting the uk hard with the polar front jet sweeping southeast into the uk, so this run takes it to the max in terms of a much more autumnal outlook compared to the glancing blow to the east on the operational, and completely unlike the 6z mean which shows a very benign and relatively warm outlook and further ahead.

Edited September 16, 2013 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Forgive me, but what is this current obsession with forecasting widespread fog? It's something I've commented on, in the past,  about how rare fog has become, even in the depths of winter! It's the middle of September, not November. There may well be some areas of fog, but these will not be lasting all day. There does seem to be a concerted effort by some posters to put the worst possible slant on the prospect of any dry & fine weather, I don't know why this should be. It's becoming very tiresome already, God help us if we should get any prolonged mild spell in actual winter.

it's because in an anticyclonic and generally stagnant weather pattern as we go further into september and october, you get fog and into october the risk of fog continues to grow as the suns effectiveness decreases and the nights get longer and longer, especially foggy for prone areas like the vale of york but many other areas too, it's just one of those things sadly, decay...mists and mellow fruitfulness with fog too.

Edited September 16, 2013 by Frosty.

[shedhead]

Even given no mist or fog and wall to wall sunshine, I've not seen a chart that would produce much more than 19-21c widely and perhaps a 23 or a 24c locally.  Let's not forget we will be in the final 3rd of Sept by that time, so all talk of summerlike temps/conditions is likely to prove hopeful at best imo. Yes it will feel warm in the light winds and sunshine, but the difference is that warmth will be felt for a few hours per day, rather than the 10-12hrs we can experience in Summer. We are now in Autumn, which as we know can produce some very pleasant weather, but quite why some want to keep dragging us back into Summer is beyond me.  Enjoy the seasons.

[mushymanrob]

Forgive me, but what is this current obsession with forecasting widespread fog? It's something I've commented on, in the past,  about how rare fog has become, even in the depths of winter! It's the middle of September, not November. There may well be some areas of fog, but these will not be lasting all day. There does seem to be a concerted effort by some posters to put the worst possible slant on the prospect of any dry & fine weather, I don't know why this should be. It's becoming very tiresome already, God help us if we should get any prolonged mild spell in actual winter.

 

because for some its a distinct possibility.

 

we have a pretty wet week to come, the ground is already wet, follow that by a settled spell and IF the conditions are right, favoured areas could well be plagued by fog.. widespread? no one said that, all day long? unlikely but patches could linger well into the morning. fog can form at any time of the year, but is more common in winter.  i dont believe that neither myself or crewcold was deliberately trying to put a negetive slant on anything, but were voicing a word of caution in reading high pressure = sun and warmth. i recall back in the mid 60's some very thick fog in september (we used it as a cover during daylight) to get conkers off a farmers tree.

 

i dont know whether fog will be a problem or not, i do though think it MIGHT be a temporary early morning problem for some, and it MIGHT linger a while into the morning... thats all...

[Cheshire Freeze]

  i dont believe that neither myself or crewcold was deliberately trying to put a negetive slant on anything,

 

I certainly wasn't trying to be negative Mushy, I think we're just being sensible and exploring the possible caveats to the potential fine spell of weather

[mushymanrob]

anyway.... all this bickering about what temps might or might not be reached.... pretty pointless atm imho. we arent there yet, it still might not become reality, we still dont KNOW the exact position, orientation, and uppers the expected high pressure MIGHT produce... who really cares whether its 17c or 23c? (the most likely range), thatll do for me!

[Cheshire Freeze]

anyway.... all this bickering about what temps might or might not be reached.... pretty pointless atm imho. we arent there yet, it still might not become reality, we still dont KNOW the exact position, orientation, and uppers the expected high pressure MIGHT produce... who really cares whether its 17c or 23c? (the most likely range), thatll do for me!

 

Yes and we should start to see some nice autumnal colours come through in the next couple of weeks too.

Edited September 16, 2013 by CreweCold

[mushymanrob]

Yes and we should start to see some nice autumnal colours come through in the next couple of weeks too.

 

some trees are starting already, but thats normal.. i found over in lincs (where i was on saturday) things are more advanced there then here.

[shedhead]

Forgive me, but what is this current obsession with forecasting widespread fog? It's something I've commented on, in the past,  about how rare fog has become, even in the depths of winter! It's the middle of September, not November. There may well be some areas of fog, but these will not be lasting all day. There does seem to be a concerted effort by some posters to put the worst possible slant on the prospect of any dry & fine weather, I don't know why this should be. It's becoming very tiresome already, God help us if we should get any prolonged mild spell in actual winter.

Even over a week ago fog lingered across prone areas of East Wales and N England until late morning/early afternoon, so to offer it up as a potential, perhaps even significant feature next week is both fair and reasonable imo.  The kind of charts we are seeing for next week would undoubtedly give some very warm, even hot weather in the latter part of June, but the problem is it'll be the latter part of September by then, so the sunshine needed to produce the warmth will likely prove rather more difficult to come by.

Edited September 16, 2013 by shedhead

[Cheshire Freeze]

P.S starting to think I should take the reference to cold out of my username. I think some people think it suggests bias within my posts. It certainly doesn't, if you remember back to December last year and that *nearly* cold spell, I was one of the ones doubtful that it would come off- I got slaughtered by the coldies but my unbiased analysis was close to the mark in the end. (That really isn't me blowing my own trumpet, it just shows I don't hopecast!)

[mushymanrob]

P.S starting to think I should take the reference to cold out of my username. I think some people think it suggests bias within my posts. It certainly doesn't, if you remember back to December last year and that *nearly* cold spell, I was one of the ones doubtful that it would come off- I got slaughtered by the coldies but my unbiased analysis was close to the mark in the end. (That really isn't me blowing my own trumpet, it just shows I don't hopecast!)

 

... but you DO like the cold (for some bizarre reason :lol: ) so i cant see it making much difference..

[Frosty.]

... but you DO like the cold (for some bizarre reason ) so i cant see it making much difference..

I love freezing fog which turns all the trees and other surfaces white but it's also the most dangerous fog to drive in as it comes out of nowhere.

[Methuselah]

I think that we are all biased, one way or t'other...

[BlueHedgehog074]

Personally is a bit annoying the way the GFS is throwing up Northern blocking-like solutions (something it's been showing in FI on quite a few of its runs with an area of heights to the North). It just seems a bit too early really. But I guess it could be interesting for those wanting to see some early Northern blocking, although if it was to sustain itself for a long time, it could possibly lead to an early wintry outbreak for places (providing the blocking was to remain in a favorable place). However, with this Northern blocking-like solution being in Fantasy Island, caution should obviously be applied. Plus, there is that possible warm spell to look forward to beforehand (and is good news if you want to see something less cool). Though, as has been suggested, depending where the High Pressure ends up will have an impact on how warm it could get. Having it going just about far enough East, while still being just about influential enough with a deep seated Southerly airflow, would probably be the best solution for the warmest of conditions. It does look like for the moment that we may just end up with some sort of sausage/oval high over us. But considering this sort of scenario is still a week away, expect to see a few changes here and their. Also, from reading some of the posts yesterday, the way that ex-storm behaves will probably likely have some affect where the High will ridge and move to.

 

For the nest few days, it looks like places will see some additional spells of rain or showers, but also with some brighter weather at times, too. Less settled and more drier conditions more likely the further South you are where Low pressure systems will be a little bit less influential. GFS, UKMO, and ECMWF then generally agree with High Pressure trying to come to the rescue during the weekend, with the South-East likely to be the No. 1 spot...

 

An example from the three main charts on Sunday

 

 

[johnholmes]

To give some fact to discussions about what sunshine can release in the way of temperatures in differing months.

The amount of energy available as a maximum in say June is 130 in terms of raising an isothermal layer to an adiabatic level, a complicated way of saying how much energy is needed.

In September this is given as 104 units. July and August are 125 and 119 respectively.

Thus the chances of higher temperatures are obviously reduced in general in September compared to the 'summer' months. Equally that energy is also reduced as shown above in helping to clear radiation fog. By December that energy is down to 53

Edited September 16, 2013 by johnholmes

[Gaz1985]

That's a real nice ridge of pressure  don't know what all these dense fog comments are about, even if fog forms it won't last all day in September it will soon burn off to leave warm sunshine, 4-6 weeks from now then it would last a lot longer, oh and where's humberto?? 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Still not bad from the GFS, getting close to a southerly flow on this run

 

Not quite this time.

But the temperatures are better with 23C predicted for Sunday and Monday now.

This energy split though is going to be the next issue to solve and how that second ridge gets involved.

Edited September 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Gaz1985]

How's that? 

[Captain Shortwave]

If only it were November 

[AWD]

If only it were November

The 0z ECM Det this morning also had hints of the high drifting to our NW at a similiar timeframe too.

Although off course, the timeframe in question is in cuckoo land. A niggle to watch in the longer term though?

Edited September 16, 2013 by SeasonalWeatherWatcher

[Frosty.]

From the weekend until the end of the high res, the Gfs 12z operational turns into a fantastic run with the weather across most of the uk becoming very warm for the time of year with temps in the low to mid 20's celsius with lots and lots of sunshine and light winds, there is already very solid cross model agreement for a fine and warm/very warm spell lasting several days, perhaps lasting until later next week, at least the further south/se you are.

Edited September 16, 2013 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

I certainly hope so, Karl...A few more warm days will be most welcome.