Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[Summer Sun]

As you were from UKMO with pressure rising through the weekend

 

[Stormyking]

Lovely looking GFS for the weekend earlly next week, if it pulls off the way it showing, I wouldnt actually be suprise if a few parts in the UK get close to the mid 20's

 

Before Friday however still looking unsettled, breezy and wet, this one reason why I like Autumn, goes from extreme to another, etc this week charts Temperatures Low to mid teens at best in the UK, with single figures in the far North, and then a few days later back up into the 20's with single digits at nights

[Methuselah]

Lovely looking GFS for the weekend earlly next week, if it pulls off the way it showing, I wouldnt actually be suprise if a few parts in the UK get close to the mid 20's

 

Before Friday however still looking unsettled, breezy and wet, this one reason why I like Autumn, goes from extreme to another, etc this week charts Temperatures Low to mid teens at best in the UK, with single figures in the far North, and then a few days later back up into the 20's with single digits at nights

Mid-October 1978 saw several consecutive 25C days...

[Stormyking]

Mid-October 1978 saw several consecutive 25C days...

Indeed, I also remember September 2011 towards the end a few places hit 29'c

 

Hopefully ECM will look good for high pressure and warmth at the weekend, wouldn't mind seeing a few more warm spells before winter starts to kick in

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is filled to overflowing with potential for a prolonged warm and settled spell which could extend into october, the azores anticyclone builds northeastwards across the uk through the weekend and becomes centred over the top of the uk, it really doesn't show any inclination to leave us either, just adjusting a little further south but maintaining the fine spell for all areas, it just takes until the end of the coming weekend for the far northwest corner of the uk to join in the sunshine but for many areas, an increasingly warm and sunny weekend and this continues next week, temps into the low to mid 20's celsius from sunday and most of next week, it's fantastic for those of us who want to enjoy this type of weather for as long as we can before we start looking for cold, frost and snow.

Edited September 16, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

As you were from ECM so far

 

 

+10 uppers moving in with the high dominating the weekends weather for once looks like the BBQ season isn't over yet!

 

Edited September 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Jax]

GFS 12z for next weekend and onto next week is looking warm and dry.

[Methuselah]

The GEFS 12z mean is filled to overflowing with potential for a prolonged warm and settled spell which could extend into october, the azores anticyclone builds northeastwards across the uk through the weekend and becomes centred over the top of the uk, it really doesn't show any inclination to leave us either, just adjusting a little further south but maintaining the fine spell for all areas, it just takes until the end of the coming weekend for the far northwest corner of the uk to join in the sunshine but for many areas, an increasingly warm and sunny weekend and this continues next week, temps into the low to mid 20's celsius from sunday and most of next week, it's fantastic for those of us who want to enjoy this type of weather for as long as we can before we start looking for cold, frost and snow.

Keep the good news coming, Frosty... 

[Summer Sun]

As Frosty would say Bank

 

 

[Frosty.]

The warm settled weather goes on and on, I think this is the best GEFS mean so far this autumn in terms of longevity of the sunny and pleasantly warm spell, the best weather being the further south you are, stunning GEFS 12Z mean tonight.

[Summer Sun]

No let up from ECM prolonging the high well into next week

 

 

+15 uppers getting very close

 

 

 

Bank!

Edited September 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like the Azores high is taking another extended break in the UK, before hopefully disappearing off the charts for the entire winter 

Even at day 10 the high is slap bang over the UK

Over 6 days the high barely moves. Warm and sunny for pretty much all after cool and potentially misty starts.

Edited September 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Settled warm end to ECM

 

[Man With Beard]

Bit of a cracker this ECM. Not really convinced by this widespread fog idea, if it was mid-October I would be but I think the fog will burn back early enough to let temperatures climb, 25C is not really that rare in late September (even early October) so why not this time, it looks well set for it.

[ANYWEATHER]

Models have been abysmal from going to unsettled  to settled from the weekend onwards in just a few days and there is no reason why some major changes will happen in the days ahead, and of course "Humberto" as  helped to complicate things, hence  the outlook, and even a drastic change in the meto update. Very much uncertainty lies ahead, Ok Ok, settled for a few days from the weekend onwards into next week but at again the range at T+240 fantasy island, both gfs and ecm differ, and rightly so at that range. But folks and especially you "newbies" on here caution is needed in looking at some members posts on here that we will have some utopia  Autumn weather , when actual fact that wont happen... Heres a couple of charts,To show what I mean,,,,

[summer blizzard]

Potential warm spell from the models tonight but the GFS operational has a lovely end to September.

 

[Yarmy]

Models have been abysmal from going to unsettled  to settled from the weekend onwards in just a few days and there is no reason why some major changes will happen in the days ahead, and of course "Humberto" as  helped to complicate things, hence  the outlook, and even a drastic change in the meto update. Very much uncertainty lies ahead, Ok Ok, settled for a few days from the weekend onwards into next week but at again the range at T+240 fantasy island, both gfs and ecm differ, and rightly so at that range. But folks and especially you "newbies" on here caution is needed in looking at some members posts on here that we will have some utopia  Autumn weather , when actual fact that wont happen... Heres a couple of charts,To show what I mean,,,,

A little enthusiasm doesn't hurt though, does it? We'd have had 10 pages of OMG, BOOM, etc in Winter.

[SMU]

Well luckily Humberto has come up trumps & supported a building ridge in the atlantic- infact it looks pretty good from Sunday onwards-

 

What a crackerjack ECM!

 

S

[mushymanrob]

this is getting frustrating. why are people not reading posts properly before posting?

NO ONE said there will be widespread fog.... both me and crew cold said there MIGHT be fog problems in prone areas as conditions for fog on some runs COULD produce fog. the exact synoptics for the anticyclonic spell are not determined yet, the exact track, orientation and upper air profile MIGHT deliver high temps, they also MIGHT deliver fog for prone areas. i think that it a possibility, now if a senior forecaster or alike thinks i/ we are wrong then fair enough. im sure cc will be happy to be as corrected as i will. but for flips sake, if anyones going to quote us at least quote us correctly.

[Frosty.]

This is hands down the most sensational ecm run that anyone who wants more fine and warm weather could hope for in late september, there is not much else I can say, the upgrade starts on friday compared to the 00z and then the ecm 12z charts speak for themselves, the 564 dam line is all over the uk...truly incredible....I will leave the guy with the hat to sum this run up..I think it's off the scale EPIC 

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

Good evening folks. Here is the report on the midday output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday September 16th 2013.

 

All models show a cool and showery NW flow across the UK with a deep Low pressure area to the North of Britain. Further fronts are approaching Western Sea areas at present and will move SE over the SW half of the UK tomorrow with a spell of heavy rain and strong winds in the extreme South. This feature is whisked away before Wednesday leaving a dry, bright and cool day for many with just scattered showers. Winds then are shown to back Westerly on Thursday with fronts delivering rain from the West through the day. It will slowly feel less cool as warmer air is mixed in with this system. By Friday and more especially over the weekend the weather settles down for many as High pressure builds up from the SW with some fine and gently warm days on light winds but with the potential for some mist and fog patches overnights. The far NW seems likely to be the only exception to this rule as cloud and a little rain remains possible here.

 

GFS then shows High pressure in control for some time as a new centre moving in from the Atlantic takes over from the one to the SE next week. Fine and dry days but chilly nights will be commonplace across the UK through the middle and end of next week before an area of very cold air for September feeds down across the UK with showers and sunny intervals for all with some wintriness in the showers over the Scottish mountains and ground frost increasingly likely. Things turn milder then towards the end of the run before a change to an unsettled SW airflow is shown at the very end of the run.

 

UKMO tonight shows High pressure down to the SE early next week with fine and somewhat warmer weather than of late for most while the North and West becomes at risk of more cloud and some rain again late in the day next Sunday.

 

GEM tonight also shows High pressure building for a time at the weekend and beginning of next week with the South likely to see some fine and bright weather with the North and West seeing much more cloud. By the latter stages of the run High pressure slips away East and a depression edges in slowly from the West with some rain or showers at times in temperatures a little above average.

 

NAVGEM has High pressure building North across the UK at the weekend and into next week with fine and dry weather for most parts of the UK before this is slowly eroded from the North and West early next week as the High begins to slips away East and SE.

 

ECM has High pressure building North across the UK at the weekend and extending to all areas next week. A typical fine and anticyclonic early Autumn weather pattern will develop with fine and sunny days with gentle warmth across the UK. Nights could well become chilly under clear skies with fog and mist a potential hazard to conditions night and morning as High pressure remains anchored near the UK with warm air aloft creating a sharp night time inversion pattern.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a growing trend for a strong warming from the weekend and into next week. as has been the case a lot of late the operational was an outlier at some point and tonight it is a cold one towards the second half of the run with most other members showing a slow moderation of warmth to more average levels late in the run. The South becomes dry over the weekend and start to next week before several members indicate a light increase in the incidence of rain in the South late on while the north sees occasional rain after the 21st.

 

The Jet Stream flows across the British Isles in a SE direction weakening later in the week as it moves further North to be clear of the mainland by the end of the weekend and start to next week as High pressure takes hold to the South.

 

In Summary there is still a lot of evidence of High pressure building North across the UK this weekend and next week. Most models do now show that most of the UK will be affected by this at least for a time before some ingress from the Atlantic is shown by some output from the Atlantic later in the runs. With warm uppers aloft it looks like the weather could be quite warm by day while night's could become very foggy if night's stay clear and given we are approaching the end of September now this could be slow to lift in the mornings.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

 

[Isolated Frost]

What an absolute beaut! EC just looks class from Saturday onwards, perhaps turning a little cloudier at times in the far north, but so much warm air flowing in from the SW; and plenty of sunshine. Wouldn't mind a big last blast of warmth.

[Summer Sun]

Take your pick at t240 this evening

 

ECM warm and settled

 

 

GFS unsettled and becoming cooler

 

 

Interestingly though the GFS ensemble doesn't support the Op and instead has high pressure over the UK before slipping south afterwards

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Not sure where we will head next week, seems to depend on how conditions in the Atlantic play out with respect to energy splitting from the upper trough carrying the remains of Humberto and how the ridge near the eastern seaboard interacts with our high.

Cracking ECM, that run is about a 50 mile eastward shift from perfection. Would be fantastic to verify, summers swansong in September before the big chill begins in earnest 

[Yarmy]

ECM T240 Uppers

 

 

And at the same time last year:

 

 

Now, my point is that if you like cold, this year's chart is better. Why? Because, the cold is right in the place it needs to be at this point in the year. Meanwhile, we get lovely warm settled conditions which will hopefully help the Autumn colours too.

 

Everyone's a winner.