Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[Summer Sun]

Most Septembers have warm spells like this. Its perhaps just wishful thinking on your part. I don't remember the last 3 winters being particularly mild?

 

Gaz was referring to winter 2011 / 12 which was mild

 

Mean temperatures over the UK were 0.6 Â°C above average during December, 1.3 Â°C above in January and 0.7 Â°C above in February.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2012/winter

[Captain Shortwave]

I think people are being very optimistic suggesting this settled and very warm spell could last 1 or 2 weeks. Thats pretty much unheard of.

 

Im awaiting the charts showing the inevitable breakdown after around 4 or 5 days.

Except for July this year, that certainly lasted a long time, most of July in the end. Anything is possible. The atlantic jet is really powering down. So that block will take quite a lot to shift.

ECM looks great again

 

 

Edited September 17, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Milhouse]

It will be interesting to see what this sort of chart translates to on the ground given these sort of upper temperatures would give us the high 20s in mid summer. Obviously there will be a greater risk of mist and fog at this time of year which would restrict temperatures.

 

[Joe8987]

Except for July this year, that certainly lasted a long time, most of July in the end. Anything is possible. The atlantic jet is really powering down. So that block will take quite a lot to shift.

ECM looks great again

 

 

 

 

I was referring to september, its unheard of in september.

[Summer Sun]

Out to t192 now no breakdown in sight

 

 

T216 now the high remains put

 

 

No breakdown in sight so far its parked over the UK and aint in a rush to move

 

Edited September 17, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Well so much for last nights ECM, this one is even better

[Frosty.]

2011-12 Winter was mostly mild apart from a bit in February. It's been mild at the end of September but apart from 2011 I can't really recall many proper warm or very warm ends to the month at least not here, in the south east probably but not here, the early part of month yes it has certainly been warm. And yes of course it is wishful thinking for me to want a mild Winter, what's so wrong with that? others have been ramping up cold charts way out in FI a few months away. So I'll do the same with any mild charts that come my way thank you, as the mods say.... if you don't like what someone posts then there is a block feature 

It could work the other way Gaz, settled and warm spells in late september and early october have historical links with cold and snowy winters, the experts are expecting significant northern blocking to take hold again as we head towards winter which indicates something similar to last winter or even something more severe such as nov/dec 2010.

[Gaz1985]

It could work the other way Gaz, settled and warm spells in late september and early october have historical links with cold and snowy winters, the experts are expecting significant northern blocking to take hold again as we head towards winter which indicates something similar to last winter or even something more severe such as nov/dec 2010.

 

It could do yes, but I think Winter it's still way out in FI for anyone on this site to make any proper judgement yet, I certainly won't, I bet the Met Office have a good idea though....would be interesting to see what they see. 

[Summer Sun]

t240 ends with the high still firmly in place and in no rush to leave brings back memories of the 19 day heatwave in July when pressure built and just stayed here

 

 

Edited September 17, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

Well so much for last nights ECM, this one is even better

 

Indeed. We see high pressure intensifying again to end the run. This run is bringing back memories of the almost immovable high of July.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well what can you say

Lets just move all the cold air over the Siberia for storage before the big winter freeze 

Edited September 17, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Yarmy]

It could do yes, but I think Winter it's still way out in FI for anyone on this site to make any proper judgement yet, I certainly won't, I bet the Met Office have a good idea though....would be interesting to see what they see. 

 

There is zero correlation between a hot spell in September in the UK and the forthcoming Winter. Did the freezing cold Spring presage the superb July? Of course not. Does the cold few days we are having presage a freezing Winter? Of course not. To compare:

 

 

...and 2011...

 

 

 

 

Not much in common there (apart from the rather shapely ridge over us). In fact, the 2011 chart screams raging polar vortex versus the 2013 arctic high. But again, no conclusions can be drawn because you know, it's September.

[tinybill]

i  know its deep into fantasy world and it wont happen but could  be of our winter  to come!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

plus  its  looking a bit  wet  later in the  run

 

[Captain Shortwave]

I was referring to september, its unheard of in september.

We got a week of settled weather at the end of September 2011 going into the first week of October and the Arctic profile was less in our favour back then. The polar profile is not too dissimilar to what you would expect in August. There is very good agreement of high pressure being in control until at least next Wednesday which would be a good 5 days and this will probably be extended. I wouldn't be too surprised if this set up closes out September.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

We got a week of settled weather at the end of September 2011 going into the first week of October and the Arctic profile was less in our favour back then. The polar profile is not too dissimilar to what you would expect in August. There is very good agreement of high pressure being in control until at least next Wednesday which would be a good 5 days and this will probably be extended. I wouldn't be too surprised if this set up closes out September.

 

However it will not be a repeat of July, the sun is much lower in the sky, the nights (by then (next Weds)) will be longer than the days, places like the Vale of York and possibly parts of the midlands may not see any temperatures to shout about if the fog doesn't clear.  That air looks laden with moisture coming up from well south of us.

 

But it's still something to look forward to

Edited September 17, 2013 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Frosty.]

Tonight's ECM 12z operational  run has done something I didn't think was possible after last night's EPIC 12z.... it has just raised the bar a few notches higher, if anything like these charts verify, we will be looking at a late september heatwave, the uppers (T850 hPa) are sensational for this time of year and we could be in for a very memorable spell here, time to dust the cobwebs off the BBQ and get ready for a late and spectacular return to summer, how long will it last..no idea but I really think this is going to be exceptional and it starts in 3 days, these charts are jaw droppingly good, even in july they would be but now...  .....BANK..BANK..talk about a burning ring of fire, these charts are so good you can almost feel the heat. 

[Methuselah]

We live in hope, Frosty. We live in hope! 

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

Good evening. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday September 17th 2013.

 

All models show rain clearing the SE this evening as a wave depression clears away SE drawing back down the rather cool air over the North over the rest of the UK overnight. tomorrow shows a NW flow but rather lighter than of late with some good spells of dry and bright weather and just well scattered showers chiefly in the North. Tomorrow night looks like being chilly as a ridge crosses East over the UK ahead of a Low pressure centre crossing o the North of Scotland carrying troughs East across the UK delivering wind and rain followed by showers in the NW where gales are possible again. On Friday brighter skies will extend to all areas as winds decrease and back towards the SW later. On Saturday High pressure ridges strongly towards Southern Britain with a warm front moving NE over the UK with rain and drizzle in the west and north but little if any rain but cloudy weather in the South. It is shown to become warmer and more humid through the day. High pressure continues to build across more of the UK over Sunday with drier air imported from Europe allowing some warm daytime sunshine but with clear overnight skies the risk of fog increases. The far NW could stay cloudier with a little rain.

 

GFS then shows an Atlantic High pressure arch over the North over the UK and absorbing the High to the SE to lead to a belt of High pressure stretching across the UK for much of the next working week. By the following weekend cloud will increase from the West as Low pressure moves in over a weakening High pressure area with some outbreaks of rain with increasingly cooler and more unsettled weather for all shown to end the run.

 

UKMO tonight shows High pressure over the North Sea at the start of next week with a warm and dry spell continuing for many with sunny spells by day and the risk of mist and fog patches in rather chilly nights.

 

GEM shows High pressure well established over the UK next week with fine weather with light winds and sunny spells by day when it will feel quite warm and nights which could be quite chilly and misty with fog patches at times. By the end of the run the pressure is on the High pressure from both the East and West as Low pressure just about holds off over the period.

 

NAVGEM shows High pressure early in the week slowly declining away SE as a SW flow develops over the UK but only a little rain looking likely towards the NW with temperatures staying well up to average or a little above.

 

ECM shows a High pressure ridge extending across Britain from High pressure over Scandinavia with fine and warm days with sunny spells and chilly and misty nights with very light winds at the start of next week and that's pretty much how it stays with High pressure locked in over Britain with all rain bearing fronts and Lows hundreds of miles away from the UK. The weather felt at the surface will be warm and dry days with sunny spells but with an ever present risk of dense fog formation night and morning slow to clear in places. 

 

The GFS Ensembles show above average uppers and dry weather over the South from the end of the week for a week or so before a slow decline in conditions to more changeable weather with rain at times appears in the South by the end of the run and before in the North where the ensembles show much spread from the mid point of the run.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow blowing down over the UK later this week before lifting further North in response to rising pressure from the South. It then blows on a West to East track well North of the UK next week.

 

In Summary a fine spell looks like affecting most of the UK from later in the weekend. As always there are differences in the position of the High centre but most output looks favourable in allowing some warm and sunny conditions for many Southern areas at least next week. Later in the output it looks like a slow decline in temperatures are likely as the erosion of the High pressure begins to take place in one form or another.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

[Gaz1985]

There is zero correlation between a hot spell in September in the UK and the forthcoming Winter. Did the freezing cold Spring presage the superb July? Of course not. Does the cold few days we are having presage a freezing Winter? Of course not. To compare:

 

 

...and 2011...

 

 

 

 

Not much in common there (apart from the rather shapely ridge over us). In fact, the 2011 chart screams raging polar vortex versus the 2013 arctic high. But again, no conclusions can be drawn because you know, it's September.

 

Chill out dude, did I say a mild Winter was definitely going to happen?, nope all it was was wishful thinking on my part like the other poster said, god forbid it did turn out mild all hell would break loose in here considering the majority are cold lovers  , anyway enough of this bickering some great weather for late September coming up to enjoy!

Edited September 17, 2013 by Gaz1985

[damianslaw]

Short term - remaining unsettled and chilly to boot with further outbreaks of rain, however, quite a major change is on the cards for the weekend thanks in large part to the movement of ex hurricane humberto which will enable a strong ridge to build in from the SW and anchor itself over the country as we enter next week.

 

Whilst the models right now want to keep the high in situ for a number of days, as I said a couple of days ago, the most likely evolution is the erosion of heights from the NW as we see pressure fall here thanks to steep temperature gradients probably splitting the ridge in two with the trough most likely to find its way across the country - it does however, look like this could be a slower process than you might expect at this time of year, but yes this isn't late spring/early summer when we can expect high pressure to put up a good fight against the atlantic - the odds at this time of year are against fine lengthy warm settled spells - they can occur such as in late September 2011, but are not very likely.

 

Many will be pleased to not have to keep the heating on as we get to the end of the week.

[Gaz1985]

The pressure increases as we move into Friday 

 

 

Saturday looking good with strong high pressure

 

 

Sunday looking similar, overall a decent weekend, make the most of it 

 

 

Into the new week and the high pressure is still dominating our weather and get's joined by the one in the Atlantic, yet another great run tonight, time to get outside and enjoy the fine weather when it arrives while you still can, overall warm or very warm depending where you live  (apart from the likes of North Scotland and Shetland who will be closest to any lower pressure)

 

Edited September 17, 2013 by Gaz1985

[DAVID SNOW]

It could work the other way Gaz, settled and warm spells in late september and early october have historical links with cold and snowy winters, the experts are expecting significant northern blocking to take hold again as we head towards winter which indicates something similar to last winter or even something more severe such as nov/dec 2010.

 

 

"settled and warm spells in late September and early October have historical links with cold and snowy winters"

 Do you have any stats to back this statement up with?

As far as I know there has been no proven correlation between the weather type in autumn and the forth coming winter.

 

Late September warmth being shown by the GFS,ECM,UKMO, most would welcome that.

[Scorcher]

The recent GFS runs have not looked as good as what the ECM and UKMO have been coming up with- the high pressure on the GFS 18Z is not as favourably placed as it is on the runs from the ECM and UKMO if it's warmth you're after. Fingers crossed that the GFS starts to come into line with the others in the morning.

[Gaz1985]

The recent GFS runs have not looked as good as what the ECM and UKMO have been coming up with- the high pressure on the GFS 18Z is not as favourably placed as it is on the runs from the ECM and UKMO if it's warmth you're after. Fingers crossed that the GFS starts to come into line with the others in the morning.

 

Away from Scotland the wind is coming from a warm source and not from the North or Atlantic, continental Europe is still warm at this time of year.

 

 

GFS temperatures' haven't changed for days. Still looks good to me.

 

Edited September 17, 2013 by Gaz1985

[syed2878]

off topic and sorry about that. I do agree with gaz here the hot spell end of sept and start of oct 2011 the winter that followed was a mild1 and it could happen again. Back to the here and now the models r in agreement for a settel week or so, and that is good news it will give my tomatos and chillies that little warmth